Upstate Tiger Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest Package From GSP Just Issued: I hate the word "dry slot." We'll see. Still looks like a good hit for upstate SC regardless. Hoping for one of the old fashioned storms like we used to have in the late 70's where we got a good thump of snow on the front end, then mix, and then back end snow. Been a long time since we've had one of those here: THE UPSTATE IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A SECOND ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH IF A DRY SLOT MOVES IN AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...NO ICE NUCLEI MAY BE AVAILABLE...IMPLYING FZRA INSTEAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I will be really interested in the next RGEM. Here is the 12z for reference. I would go with this for a forecast and not be afraid: SNOW SLEET FREEZING RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Correct. We're going to get a couple of inches of rain before this even thinks about switching over late tomorrow. On top of all the rain we've already had, and the winds are coming. Gonna be some trees down.Exactly. I was wanting snow, but worried about rain. We already lost some trees with he last rain. More rain, then some wind, and then some snow - yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH just updated WSW for Raleigh. 2-6 inches of snow and 0.5 ice. noice! Amazing trends on the short term and mesoscale models...not much more you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I mean it's possible, just a hunch I have. I really have no idea where this is going to go for Wake Co. zr will be self limiting, trend towards all-snow is highly doubtful. mostly rain is doubtful to me as well, so it leaves IP... It's pretty wild how RDU and CLT usually end up equaling out for different reasons. We are usually just too far south and RDU is too close to the storm....but looking at HRRR it looks like that low is south enough to where we may all luck out being on the west side of it. Again though with such strong rates I wonder if that warm nose can stay that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This what I harp on...not Debbie downer but realistic. Warm nose! Hour 30 on the 18z HR NAM shows a ton of waa,even into est central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam is usuually good w changeovers unfortunately. This is not a true miller a so sleet will be an issue in the normal locales. Just hope it doesnt cut down on totals too much. Sleet has always limited hickory from those totals u see up in the far northern foothills. Hoping we se the nam become less agressive w. The warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 30 on the 18z HR NAM shows a ton of waa,even into est central VA. I'm a little surprised that the cold air doesn't wrap in a little faster with such a strong low off the SC coast. Maybe it's because it's transferring energy. The sooner it can be established, the faster the WAA can be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I will be really interested in the next RGEM. Here is the 12z for reference. I would go with this for a forecast and not be afraid: SNOW Classic NC storm there. Southern side of Mecklenburg county with around 2 inches of snow and northern side at 10+. So close for lots of snow and some ice or lots of ice and some snow. Argh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH just updated WSW for Raleigh. 2-6 inches of snow and 0.5 ice. They also pushed the WSW another county east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This has the potential to be extremely serious for Metro ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm a little surprised that the cold air doesn't wrap in a little faster with such a strong low off the SC coast. Maybe it's because it's transferring energy. The sooner it can be established, the faster the WAA can be overcome. Yes. The CAD has surface temps still below freezing for much of that area in fairness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They also pushed the WSW another county east. Yes it was pushed down to Johnston County. I thought Wayne was there as well but don't see anything about it on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW, RAH has changed their forecast for the Triad, and they've taken all mixing out for the majority of tomorrow. Generally 8-12"...and according to the point-and-click forecast, they're still banking on some freezing rain accums. If we stay mostly snow here, we could really, really be looking at some good totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has just jumped up big for my grid forecast: Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow before 1pm, then snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then freezing rain after 4pm. High near 31. Northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday Night Freezing rain. Low around 30. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. Saturday Freezing rain likely before 10am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Very long AFD from RAH --- but mentions snowfall rates of 2-3"/hour in the NW Piedmont... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDRAH&e=201601212100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has added more about the winds almost Blizzard conditions(during gusts) for a time tomorrow in W-S. Looks like going to be interesting.. Friday Snow. High near 27. Northeast wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then freezing rain. Low around 26. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has just jumped up big for my grid forecast: Interestingly, they've removed all the freezing rain references in my grid. Just snow and sleet, then rain, then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blacksburg is usually conservative....... WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FORTHE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...AND ACTUALLYDOUBLE AND TRIPLE THAT THRESHOLD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEEDOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUERIDGE...WHERE 2 FOOT+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROANOKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has just jumped up big for my grid forecast: Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow before 1pm, then snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then freezing rain after 4pm. High near 31. Northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday Night Freezing rain. Low around 30. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. Saturday Freezing rain likely before 10am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Why does it look so different for Chapel Hill? Tonight A chance of freezing rain and sleet between 1am and 3am, then snow and sleet likely. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow and sleet before 11am, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 32. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 4am, then rain, snow, and freezing drizzle likely after 4am. Low around 30. North wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain, snow, and freezing drizzle likely before 7am, then a chance of snow and freezing drizzle between 7am and 8am, then a chance of snow after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has added more about the winds almost Blizzard conditions(during gusts) for a time tomorrow in W-S. Looks like going to be interesting.. Friday Snow. High near 27. Northeast wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then freezing rain. Low around 26. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours). Looking at all the latest models, I don't see how W-S or anyone in Triad sees snow totals this high. I think we're going to have a raging sleet storm for most of tomorrow with some bursts of heavy snow at beginning and end of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, we might be safe! Sitting at 50.4 right now, pretty sure we weren't expected to hit 50 degrees GSP NWS said 50 high would not have much of an effect. I see you temp has already dropped to 47 almost an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why does it look so different for Chapel Hill? Tonight A chance of freezing rain and sleet between 1am and 3am, then snow and sleet likely. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow and sleet before 11am, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 32. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 4am, then rain, snow, and freezing drizzle likely after 4am. Low around 30. North wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain, snow, and freezing drizzle likely before 7am, then a chance of snow and freezing drizzle between 7am and 8am, then a chance of snow after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Basically the same forecast as SE Randolph county, while where I am in NW Randolph has 5 to 9" of snow forecasted during the day Friday. It all depends on where the changeover line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP NWS said 50 high would not have much of an effect. I see you temp has already dropped to 47 almost an hour ago.KK on fox 21, talking about alot of snow and sleet , with a change to ZR tomorrow and back to snow , and going with 1-3 inches of snow and .10-.25 accrual of zr! Seems a little low on the snow, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH has added more about the winds almost Blizzard conditions(during gusts) for a time tomorrow in W-S. Looks like going to be interesting.. Friday Snow. High near 27. Northeast wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then freezing rain. Low around 26. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours). I believe that's 35 mph sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Basically the same forecast as SE Randolph county, while where I am in NW Randolph has 5 to 9" of snow forecasted during the day Friday. It all depends on where the changeover line sets up. His grid didn't update yet. He needs to refresh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest snow map from Blacksburg bumps up totals for many.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 KK on fox 21, talking about alot of snow and sleet , with a change to ZR tomorrow and back to snow , and going with 1-3 inches of snow and .10-.25 accrual of zr! Seems a little low on the snow, but who knows Actually that seems generous on the snow side considering the amount of qpf that will either mix or fall as RN/ZR/IP (particularly IP). It also can't be taken for granted that the NW jog happens in real time, which is extremely common. The moisture transfer never works out well here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 KK on fox 21, talking about alot of snow and sleet , with a change to ZR tomorrow and back to snow , and going with 1-3 inches of snow and .10-.25 accrual of zr! Seems a little low on the snow, but who knows GSP NOAA thinks otherwise. They have GSP getting 4-5 inches of snow with .40 ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 30 on the 18z HR NAM shows a ton of waa,even into est central VA. Looks pretty well scoured out on that NAM image. Never ever underestimate the power of WAA. I have witnessed it traverse from the SC coast up NW into the NC Foothills against the NW Blue Ridge East side before in past storms in a matter of several hours at the 850mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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