DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z nam in line with the hrrr and rap starting snow in clt and upstate sc around 2-3am. looks a tick colder thru 15hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z NAM is colder...has snow starting in CLT @16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 big ice for upper sc this run. frz rain down to darlington/florence area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CLT getting hit hard with snow even @18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WNC gets slammed on this run...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Welcome to the Party, Bastardi: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Pennsylvania, USA Carolina's hammered too,CLT to RDU to RIC west big Snowstorm.Look out Food Lion( Piggly Wiggly 2, if still in south) *falls out of chair* When Joe mentions CLT then you know its serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 *falls out of chair* When Joe mentions CLT then you know its serious. Been gone a few hours - just saw that. Here's the map that he posted with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks 3 -5 inches of snow...then it switches over to heavy heavy sleet for the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 raleigh on the snow sleet line at 17z. radar returns looks amazing tomorrow morning with it all snow at rdu up to lunchtime or so. EDIT: still awesome returns at 18z, rdu riiiight on the snow/sleet line. looks like all sleet on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP is on the edge of 10 inches of snow or 5 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP is on the edge of 10 inches of snow or 5 inches of sleet. I'll be interested to see the Cobb output in a couple hours. It'll be real close. Good news is this run is colder; 12z was a little worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like nam wants to pop the low south southwest of charleston this run. That would most def be good for people hoping for more snow in NC. She is juiced and primed. The entire southeast forum is just being inundated with heavy precip around hrs 24-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like all-snow for the Triad through hr 24, looking at the soundings, though the soundings couldn't get any closer, to say the least. By hr 27, it's clearly a sleet sounding, with a strong warm nose in the 800-850 mb range. Temps are below freezing below 850 mb and very, very cold, so I think it is definitely PL rather than ZR, however. Same for HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam has frz rain down to midlands of sc @24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM much better thru 27 hrs with temps. I'm barely hanging to snow here during the heaviest period, put way better than the ZR output from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well this is not good at all for Greenville county especially.....and this is only through 18Z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM much better thru 27 hrs with temps Yep, it's finally catching on. Looks like Hi-Res is even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The nam from hours 24-29 is just a complete mauling and slaughtering with its qpf production. There's gonna be some serious qpf on the 18z run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There is your watch for Atlanta. Flood watch overlapping areas in a winter storm warning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf will be insane for this run for rdu. lots of sleet after the initial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like all snow IMBY through 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There is your watch for Atlanta. Flood watch overlapping areas in a winter storm warning lol. dang. I totally forgot about the flooding aspect of this storm. Flooding may be our biggest worry in the I-20 corridor. Forget snow and ice ! Not many people on here have talked about the flooding risk with this system. All the talk seems to be snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM has a pretty potent warm nose in the 750-850 mb range which is hard to diagnose just looking at the 850 mb 0C charts. You really need to look at soundings. Nevertheless, a lot of areas do seem to hang onto snow for awhile (~18z tomorrow). Good run. The Triangle is below freezing throughout, as well. I don't think the GFS had such a potent warm nose, so I am not sure if the NAM is just overdoing it or if it's picking up on something the lower-resolution GFS cannot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 And the trend of colder and more precip continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP is on the edge of 10 inches of snow or 5 inches of sleet. Think it's best just to stick with the NAM right now. CAD in GSP I'm worried about if it can get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like we have one single layer above freezing from 27-33 then back to isothermal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Winter Weather Advisory for metro ATL. 1-2 inches of snow and sleet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gonna be a big run for the euro graphs. The probability maps now have the 6" contour through Charlotte and the 12" through hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So my understanding is that freezing rain is self-limiting, especially if it's coming down heavily. GSP seems to allude to this in their discussion. Does anybody know how the math on this works? I'm guessing there are a ton of factors at work. THE WARM NOSE WILL WEAKEN AND THE BARRIER JET WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD BE APPROACHING THE PHYSICAL LIMIT...ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ERN UPSTATE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, slp 998 south of ATL on the hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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