LovingGulfLows Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Are people forgetting the Euro was south of literally every other model for the past weekend's storm in this time range? I'd be very wary of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The cutoff will be Wake... NW Wake will get way more than SE Wake near JoCo! But looking at model trends, I definitely think they are having a hard time resolving the energy and the interaction with the high. I think the high is a little too strong on recent model runs. I would take a solution NW of the Euro at this point, climatologically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From my now dispassionate perch, this makes sense. BUT, it is somewhat encouraging how everything trended more suppressed in this range on the last event. A lot of times those trends repeat all season. Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What do you think of this setup Grit for CLT? Haven't seen you post about it. Have been thinking that this would trend north, but that hasn't been the case. If the track stays south like the Euro and the damming signature is a little stronger, then it would be a major ice storm with possibly a little snow to start. If farther north track and less CAD, mostly a cold rain...devils in the details. The setup as it stands moreso favors the mtns, foothills, and I-40 north. I'd watch that shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes just prior to the storm - farther south with it and that helps to keep everything south (storm track and temps). It's definitely not a big snow setup for CLT which I know is what you're looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Are people forgetting the Euro was south of literally every other model for the past weekend's storm in this time range? I'd be very wary of it. To be fair yes. But this is under different scenarios so there isn't as much room for change as the last one. Def. Worth the mention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 To be fair yes. But this is under different scenarios so there isn't as much room for change as the last one. Def. Worth the mention though. It's easy for this to trend north. The high simply doesn't have to be as strong as it's currently modeled which is very possible. I'm just saying...be cautious about the Euro...it did VERY bad with last weekend's storm and the GFS scored. The Euro Para probably is better than it's operational model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All models at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will that track mean snow for sc Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk No, the Low would be too far north and the warm air from the south would kill any chances for snow. The general rule is that you want the surface low pressure to track about 200-250 miles south/southeast of you to get snow. You may get some backside snow if the low pressure bombs out and cold air begins to wrap around the storm along the west and southwest sectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is Ray's thoughts. I think it will be this or the way north track. We will see that track wins. And if we see this track anybody on the NW side of the Low will see winter weather. Most of the upstate is in on it if we see this track but it could very well be a Ice storm in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And if we see this track anybody on the NW side of the Low will see winter weather. Most of the upstate is in on it if we see this track but it could very well be a Ice storm in the upstate. Mind you, this is on the southern envelope of guidance though. Most model suites have the surface low tracking over southern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anybody know where i can see historical maps for 2015? I normally use NARR on e-wall but 2015 is not available there. I'm wanted to go back and look at the ice-storm from February last year as all the models busted badly on it's penetration into SC and GA. I believe that this wedge was from a very weak HP that wasn't modeled all that well until the very short term when models starts jumping the low pressure around the wedging high instead of plowing through it. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20150216_winterstorm Try these... http://weather.unisys.com/archive/eta_init/1502/ http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/ http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And if we see this track anybody on the NW side of the Low will see winter weather. Most of the upstate is in on it if we see this track but it could very well be a Ice storm in the upstate. That would be an ice storm or rain in Upstate SC depending on how much CAD there is. It would be too close to the low pressure center to get snow. With a track like that, places like Northern half of TN, NC Mountains, NW NC, Virginia, and D.C. would get decimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mind you, this is on the southern envelope of guidance though. Most model suites have the surface low tracking over southern TN. Notice I said "if" we see this track. I didn't say we would see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And if we see this track anybody on the NW side of the Low will see winter weather. Most of the upstate is in on it if we see this track but it could very well be a Ice storm in the upstate. That track is too far north except for the very highest elevations. The upstate needs the low, at the very least, off Hilton head and no further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's easy for this to trend north. The high simply doesn't have to be as strong as it's currently modeled which is very possible. I'm just saying...be cautious about the Euro...it did VERY bad with last weekend's storm and the GFS scored. The Euro Para probably is better than it's operational model though. Of course it's east to trend north. My point was that compared to last weekends storm this one has a lot more agreement. Yes there are two completely different storm tracks that are being shown, but one model doesn't have it going to Cuba. We will see if the Euro holds the the more southern line. 0z run tonight will be very important to try and get a trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That track is too far north except for the very highest elevations. The upstate needs the low, at the very least, off Hilton head and no further north. That would work for the CAD regions. Which actually could be colder than some of the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That would work for the CAD regions. Which actually could be colder than some of the higher elevations +1 I think you and I sit in a good spot. Just hope the trends continue. GSP certainly thinks the CAD is going to be stronger than modeled, for them to be this bullish at this range has me highly interested considering there normally very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That track is too far north except for the very highest elevations. The upstate needs the low, at the very least, off Hilton head and no further north. For snow yes but for Ice I dissagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 The quicker the primary sfc low dies off, the better. If the secondary forms in the GOM, it's game on for a good bit of the interior piedmont region, foothills, and mtns. It's the secondary forms over the SE coast, then looking at a mixed bag for piedmont, if the low doesn't jump and rolls right across the south, it's going to get really wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Canadian Ensemble is pretty cold, looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 latest probs for .25" frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the 12z EPS is following the op's lead and digging our S/W deeper and a bit slower so far compared to the 00z EPS. It might be a bit more positively tilted, too, or maybe it just seems that way because it's slower. The ridge out west is popping a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the 12z EPS is following the op's lead and digging our S/W deeper and a bit slower so far compared to the 00z EPS. It might be a bit more positively tilted, too, or maybe that's just because it's slower. Excellent glad to here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z eps run similar to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From Mr. East Check out @eastwx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/689175890153046016?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Haven't followed this model along for too long but it's done ok on a few systems this winter.. this will be the first time watching it handle a potential cad scenario. But FWIW, as you can see, it's a little slower with the low and it brings freezing temps all the way into ne ga.. At this point, I doubt it gets that far but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see eventually freezing temps making it into the upstate at some point..especially after how cold the 12z euro was which most of the time is too warm by several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z eps run similar to op. Yeah, and it's colder than the 00z EPS run. Should be a good one. Can't wait for the bar graphs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, but that LP is coming over SE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS is slower, a tad south of the Op- looks good for northern NC and of course VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, but that LP is coming over SE NC Very tight cluster of LPs amongst the members near Myrtle Beach at hr 108. Then over the Pamlico Sound at hr 114. The HP is in better position, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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