FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fishel: Over 90% of precipitation with this storm will fall during a 12 hour period from early tomorrow morning to early tomorrow evening We will likely go from no precipitation to heavy snow in the triangle area in a matter of 15-30 min. We will get down to business quickly! Accumulations will be tough to call because of a deep layer of near freezing air aloft. A one degree C change anywhere in that layer is huge That's when temps will be their coldest (...at least for our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fishel says 1-3" a lock before the changeover but 3-6" not out of the question. euro gives around 3-5" so a good call i would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caution on these snow totals especially east of I-77...and you all know this. Likely they are overdone because major WAA will cause a sleet storm for many. If you look at the KU storms very very few of them have insane snow totals for NC because of WAA. (exception might be Jan 1987). Still fun as heck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So you call 2-4 of snow and 1/2 Ice light?? IT would be dead on if it were all sleet and ice. 1.5 inches going to sleet at a 2:1 ratio would be on the order of 3 inches of snow/sleet. That's probably about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone in the midlands of SC is gonna get their clock cleaned. It probably won't make it to Columbia but if I was in Winnsboro or Newberry... I am in Chapin, just north of Irmo by Lake Murray. Clock cleaned by Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am in Chapin, just north of Irmo by Lake Murray. Clock cleaned by Ice? No, I think it'll be along a line from roughly Newberry to Winnsboro to Camden. Close enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fishel says 1-3" a lock before the changeover but 3-6" not out of the question. euro gives around 3-5" so a good call i would say. Did he mention any ice totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He said that hopefully the precip cuts off Friday evening which will reduce ice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has anybody been tracking the storms development and movement in relation to where the models predicted it to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Light side? Which models are you looking at? 12Z suite GFS Total QPF 2.3 in snow 8 in ZN 0.23 IP 0.9 NAM Total QPF 2 in snow 1.5 in ZN 0.45 IP 0.15 Euro Total QPF 1.9 in snow 8.3 ZN 0.7 IP ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP addressed this a little while ago in their social media briefing. They are not worried about it because of the reinforcing cold that will be coming in from the northeast.Yeah, full sun until now, the thick lower clouds coming in, gonna be hard to drop fast, wedge or not! Nobody likes sacrificing .25-.5 QPF , to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12Z suite GFS Total QPF 2.3 in snow 8 in ZN 0.23 IP 0.9 NAM Total QPF 2 in snow 1.5 in ZN 0.45 IP 0.15 Euro Total QPF 1.9 in snow 8.3 ZN 0.7 IP ? Already been stated, the NAM was on crack! You just posted 2 out of 3 models showing 8" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurscar Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone in the midlands of SC is gonna get their clock cleaned. It probably won't make it to Columbia but if I was in Winnsboro or Newberry... So close yet so far away. If it snows that close to here we may have to take a ride to chase it. How far north of Irmo going up 26 or 77 will see at least 2-3" of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Already been stated, the NAM was on crack! You just posted 2 out of 3 models showing 8" of snow lol....true. So since we are certainly within 24 hours of sensible weather starting, I know there are models that handle shorter range better. Which are those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have euro forecasted qpf output? Not sure if it was posted didn't see it anyhow and James is probably still in a coma from being up all last night with me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So close yet so far away. If it snows that close to here we may have to take a ride to chase it. How far north of Irmo going up 26 or 77 will see at least 2-3" of accumulation? If you wanna chase, head to Charlotte. They are supposed to get pounded. Only an hour drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol....true. So since we are certainly within 24 hours of sensible weather starting, I know there are models that handle shorter range better. Which are those? RGEM has done well in the past with mixing issues. HRRR does well with future radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caution on these snow totals especially east of I-77...and you all know this. Likely they are overdone because major WAA will cause a sleet storm for many. If you look at the KU storms very very few of them have insane snow totals for NC because of WAA. (exception might be Jan 1987). Still fun as heck! Why are you so sure the WAA will be so big? Its strength/impact seems to have continually decreased as models continue their southward trend, and to me it appears to be unlikely that it would be underdone by the models, given this southward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So close yet so far away. If it snows that close to here we may have to take a ride to chase it. How far north of Irmo going up 26 or 77 will see at least 2-3" of accumulation? Come to Hickory and chase and you should be looking at around 10-15+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Alan's latest Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys, I'm not familiar with the dynamics of your forum. I need a met from your region for radio show representation tonight. Is there anybody I should reach out to in particular? I'll probably be half drunk and I'm a librarian but I'll do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys, I'm not familiar with the dynamics of your forum. I need a met from your region for radio show representation tonight. Is there anybody I should reach out to in particular? Allan Huffman, Matthew East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys, I'm not familiar with the dynamics of your forum. I need a met from your region for radio show representation tonight. Is there anybody I should reach out to in particular? deltadog03 But there is a lot of good ones around here... Just can't think of there name right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol....true. So since we are certainly within 24 hours of sensible weather starting, I know there are models that handle shorter range better. Which are those? NWS said during their chat session that the NAM tends to handle CAD events well, but I think they were primarily referring to temps, though that's probably the most important thing for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Allan Huffman, Matthew East How the heck did I forget about Allan! D'oh. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Come to Hickory and chase and you should be looking at around 10-15inches Come up to Saluda NC, I'm expecting big numbers in this area due to lift enhancement from the mountains Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IT would be dead on if it were all sleet and ice. 1.5 inches going to sleet at a 2:1 ratio would be on the order of 3 inches of snow/sleet. That's probably about right. Well even 3" here in upstate is not light, especially on top of >.25" ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys, I'm not familiar with the dynamics of your forum. I need a met from your region for radio show representation tonight. Is there anybody I should reach out to in particular? We have several great mets, Stormtracker. At the risk of leaving people out, here are a few: msuwx, Raleighwx, deltadog03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have euro forecasted qpf output? Not sure if it was posted didn't see it anyhow and James is probably still in a coma from being up all last night with me lol. ROA was around 1.7". A bit less than the 00z run for most of VA (though still plenty). QPF in most of NC stayed about the same. Guys, I'm not familiar with the dynamics of your forum. I need a met from your region for radio show representation tonight. Is there anybody I should reach out to in particular? Allan Huffman (RaleighWx), Matthew East (msuwx), or Chris Simmons (deltadog). Maybe even Robert (foothillsnc/wxsouth), though he doesn't come around here much anymore (he did one of the radio shows in 2010, IIRC). We also have Cheeznado from N GA and HurricaneTracker from WNC. I am probably leaving out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caution on these snow totals especially east of I-77...and you all know this. Likely they are overdone because major WAA will cause a sleet storm for many. If you look at the KU storms very very few of them have insane snow totals for NC because of WAA. (exception might be Jan 1987). Still fun as heck! Jan '87 is the only storm I can remember that gave Eden, NC over a foot of snow without much if any in the way of sleet or freezing rain. The only other events of a foot or more that I can recall were March '93 and Jan. '96. Both of those systems had several hours of sleet which cut the potential accumulations down. As beautiful as the snowfall accumulation maps look for Rockingham County, NC right now, based on personal experience only, I am not expecting more than 10" from this system. There will likely be an extended period of sleet mixing in due to the warm nose sneaking in, and if that doesn't cut back the forecast totals; another concern is the energy transferring to the coast to fast. I have seen this many times in situations like this and it often results in the heaviest axis of precipitation shifting east a lot faster than the models show. It will be a lot of fun to see how this system plays out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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