FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Liquid equivalent precip broken up by type in the 12Z GFS This is very painful. I am that little dot(lake murray) on the map that is literally miles from all the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Combine totals. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Oh I know. That's the problem with these clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 as usual, ne ga and the upstate are pretty much riding the liquid/frozen ice/snow line lol. i should be used to it. amazing how close it can be and just one or two degrees either way making all the difference. not sure if i have seen them do this, but gsp is having a q/a session on the storm today lol https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201601211345-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP I think at minimum u get a ton of ice then several inches of snow. Rgem is really bullish and earlier runs of the Nam look very cold at 925 to 950mb for Ne ga, sc. In fact rgem gives a most of northeast ga respectable amounts of freezing rain now...even down to near athens before going over to snow. Lookout, if available, please give your assessment/thoughts for East Central GA, NE GA, and Northwest SC - this area seems to be the most difficult to forecast at this time - also, there seems to be some disagreement between GSP and CAEVery tough call on how far south major icing occurs. . I'm tossing the 12z Nam since convection might be causing too much warming and it's out of step with its prior runs and trends on the other models. Rgem is a big one even for areas south of 85. Normally it's best to go with the coldest but I wonder if it might be a touch too cold since it starts out so much cooler upstream in nc which might be overdone. Regardless thoughts haven't really changed much from earlier. Watch those temps tonight and I don't think it will take long to find out if the rgem is more likely to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is wrong with the SREF? For RDU, some members have temps in the 40s near 50. I guess we can throw that out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is wrong with the SREF? For RDU, some members have temps in the 40s near 50. I guess we can throw that out? Low onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Liquid equivalent precip broken up by type in the 12Z GFS Basically all-snow in the Triad. Coldest GFS run yet... awesome. I'm glad I live in western Guilford County for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Basically all-snow in the Triad. Coldest GFS run yet... awesome. I'm glad I live in western Guilford a County for this one! Or western Forsyth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 17 inches here. LOL. I'll believe that when I see it. It's possible GSP has me under a Winter Storm Warning for 10-15inches of snow here in Burke County NC west of Hickory so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not buying the freezing rain output it has over the mtns, never seen the foothills have all snow and the mtns snow/freezing rain. I have, more than once. CAD gets pushed up against the blue ridge and keep the entire coloum cold enough for all snow or snow/sleet combo. I've seen all snow in Marion an rain in Asheville. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Basically all-snow in the Triad. Coldest GFS run yet... awesome. I'm glad I live in western Guilford a County for this one! Yes, looks golden for your area. We are close to the same latitude, but it looks like this area might be saved from too much zr only by going above freezing for a bit! I'll take it if it keeps the power on. Thankful that we at least have a system that is productive for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is wrong with the SREF? For RDU, some members have temps in the 40s near 50. I guess we can throw that out? It's running warm. Several SREF members pop a decent amount of ice pellets in Roanoke and Blacksburg - the rest of the model suites are basically all snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z GGEM is 50+ miles further south with the primary at hr 24. Also a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's what I've got for Charlotte after analyzing the GFS soundings Friday 1AM – 32, sleet/snow 4AM – 29, snow 7AM – 28, snow 10AM – 26, snow 1PM – 26, sleet 4PM – 30, sleet 7PM – 29, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) 10PM – 28, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) Saturday 1AM - 28, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) 4AM – 28, light snow 7AM – 29, light snow 10AM – 32, light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is wrong with the SREF? For RDU, some members have temps in the 40s near 50. I guess we can throw that out? I think its a hunk of junk. Has ridiculous spread at short lead times. Somehow its qpf mean usually comes out pretty good which is the only think I really use it for. Thats just my opinion, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not buying the freezing rain output it has over the mtns, never seen the foothills have all snow and the mtns snow/freezing rain. I have, more than once. CAD gets pushed up against the blue ridge and keep the entire coloum cold enough for all snow or snow/sleet combo. I've seen all snow in Marion an rain in Asheville. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Asheville is another story compared to the northern mtns though, Asheville is weird and almost not like the mtns at times. I guess I'll be more precise, I've never seen freezing rain in Boone and snow in Lenoir. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not buying the freezing rain output it has over the mtns, never seen the foothills have all snow and the mtns snow/freezing rain. I have, more than once. CAD gets pushed up against the blue ridge and keep the entire coloum cold enough for all snow or snow/sleet combo. I've seen all snow in Marion an rain in Asheville. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Can't recall I've ever seen all rain in Asheville and gone down the mountain to all snow. I've seen freezing rain and sleet in the French Broad River Valley, and gone down the mountain to snow, but never as drastic as you listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z GGEM is 50+ miles further south with the primary at hr 24. Also a bit slower. sure is, colder too. identical to the gfs at hr30. looks like snow for rdu west. great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Per Chris Holcomb of 11Alive on FB: "On conference call now with NWS. They are anticipating issuing a winter storm watch for metro area for Friday PM into Saturday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sure is, colder too. identical to the gfs at hr30. looks like snow for rdu west. great look. [sNIPPED IMAGE] Yep, crushed. Good to see it trend significantly colder versus past runs. I'm really starting to feel like this one is going to be a memorable storm here for a long, long time, as long as mixing doesn't kill us (but the models are trending south/colder for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z GGEM is 50+ miles further south with the primary at hr 24. Also a bit slower. I wondered if that southern trend would continue. We're getting close to the event and still seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Get your questions ready folks. NWS-GSP is hosting a Q&A session from 12-1pm EST today. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC845 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016...SOCIAL MEDIA QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION TODAY FROM NOON TO 1PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL HOLD ASOCIAL MEDIA QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION TODAY BETWEEN NOON AND 1PM EASTERN STANDARD TIME TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMINGMAJOR WINTER STORM. SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING WINTERSTORM CAN BE TWEETED TO @NWSGSP OR QUESTIONS CAN BE POSTED TO OURNWSGSP FACEBOOK PAGE. WE WILL DO OUR BEST TO ANSWER ALL THEINQUIRIES IN A TIMELY FASHION.WHEN POSTING...PLEASE INCLUDE YOUR LOCATION AND KEEP YOUR QUESTIONCONCISE SO THAT WE CAN ASSIST AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE IN THEALLOTTED TIME. THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING THEUPCOMING MAJOR WINTER STORM CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE ATWEATHER.GOV/GSP. CHECK THIS PAGE FREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOSEE THE LATEST UPDATES.$GERAPETRITIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep, crushed. Good to see it trend significantly colder versus past runs. I'm really starting to feel like this one is going to be a memorable storm here for a long, long time, as long as iing doesn't kill us (but the models are trending south/colder for now). great to see the 12z suite (minus the nam) trend colder and snowier. almost in range for the short range models now. looks as if the ice threat is increasing firther south as well, esp in upper sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep, crushed. Good to see it trend significantly colder versus past runs. I'm really starting to feel like this one is going to be a memorable storm here for a long, long time, as long as mixing doesn't kill us (but the models are trending south/colder for now).Looks like heavy snow at GSP. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big Changes in the Canadian.....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Asheville is another story compared to the northern mtns though, Asheville is weird and almost not like the mtns at times. I guess I'll be more precise, I've never seen freezing rain in Boone and snow in Lenoir. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk City proper is heavily influenced by sitting in the FB River Valley and having the Balsams to it's west. It's the driest city in the state, yet down the road in Toxaway/Cashiers/Highlands, it is the wettest area in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's what I've got for Charlotte after analyzing the GFS soundings Friday 1AM – 32, sleet/snow 4AM – 29, snow 7AM – 28, snow 10AM – 26, snow 1PM – 26, sleet 4PM – 30, sleet 7PM – 29, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) 10PM – 28, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) Saturday 1AM - 28, light freezing rain/drizzle (shallow moisture) 4AM – 28, light snow 7AM – 29, light snow 10AM – 32, light snow Wow, thanks Grit. That would be outstanding! I'll take 9 hours of snow on Friday and run. Great temps too! Seems like the GFS and RGEM have been trending more snow/sleet for 85 north. The Saturday stuff is precarious imo, I don't think we get much once the low is off the coast to our east. EDIT: Man, the cmc looks awesome too 85 north.let's keep this look please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 great to see the 12z suite (minus the nam) trend colder and snowier. almost in range for the short range models now. looks as if the ice threat is increasing firther south as well, esp in upper sc. The NAM definitely trended colder and snowier too. NAM/GFS/RGEM/GGEM all did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Keep trending south and colder, and keep the system right off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 canadian much farther offshore the obx at 42, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sounding is just a smidge warmer at CLT. Solid snow sounding at 30 north and west of the airport. I have a feeling now that the models are all aligning that CLT for once might cash in. I refuse to believe 3 inches of sleet. I think this is either going to be one of those crushing ZR events or a big snow event. As usual we are right on the line but could it really sleet for like 10 hours straight, especially under heavy returns? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.