UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS looks really juicy early!! and Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the RGEM has about a foot of snow for areas west of Charlotte on the border plus 3" of sleet. You can't even make that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS Running...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is valid 21Z Friday. At that point, the warm conveyor belt of precip should be over and there should be a good lull in the precipitation until the deform band comes back through overnight into Saturday morning. That is to say, 21Z sounding supports sleet but it should not be precipitating at that time. I saw that but the NAM has the temp going above freezing at that level at about 15Z- I think there will be sleet, for how long is the question. A foot of snow seems quite likely if you add the front end to the def band at the end- but will there a few hours of sleet to keep if from getting up more towards 15-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, that stinks. From the play by play of the run it seemed like more snow/sleet fro CLT on the 12Z Nam. 925mb was about 2C warmer this run compared to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12Z CMC shows 10 hours of SNOW for the mountains and N/S foothills, upstate Then 3 hours of mix in the N/S foothills, upstate snow continues as the main p-type in the mountains then 11 hours of snow as the back end crashes for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS looking good for snow lovers at the start, definitely colder aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Triad getting RAKED AT HR 36! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sounding is just a smidge warmer at CLT. Solid snow sounding at 30 north and west of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We really need to watch the front end thump. Those invariably over perform somewhere in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS gets the system organized faster off the east coast and helps to keep the 850's cool. Seems a little more east of last run and a tick stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow...heavy snow at 36 from GSP up 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ULL is a tad further North on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS gets the system organized faster off the east coast and helps to keep the 850's cool. Seems a little more east of last run and a tick stronger. yea slp is a tick east, a little colder. rdu starts as snow and at 33 or so switches to ice and maybe rain, then back to snow as the low move n. hr 30 not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I saw that but the NAM has the temp going above freezing at that level at about 15Z- I think there will be sleet, for how long is the question. A foot of snow seems quite likely if you add the front end to the def band at the end- but will there a few hours of sleet to keep if from getting up more towards 15-16" Well, this may be a moot point- the GFS has no warm nose at all, the entire sounding stays well below freezing the whole storm. So a near record in AVL of 16-18" is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Be aware of how the accretion of ice can impact power, communications, and utility providers based on the Sperry-Piltz Icing Index used by utilities. Brad Panovich this morning has said that he thinks the Charlotte area could be looking at a 3 to possibly a 4 on the index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks colder and snowier for more of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nice snow for central nc as the low pulls north, snow just tapering off at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 McCrory declaring state of emergency over on WRAL live video. EDIT: This news is about 20 min old, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Liquid equivalent precip broken up by type in the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this has all frozen p-types in play but Damn that look in the foothills. Lee side side enhancement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this has all frozen p-types in play but Damn that look in the foothills. Lee side side enhancement ?Upslope on the East side ?! Easterly fetch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Liquid equivalent precip broken up by type in the 12Z GFS I'm not buying the freezing rain output it has over the mtns, never seen the foothills have all snow and the mtns snow/freezing rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is going off of NWC forecasts which are usually conservative of ICE. Treat this graph conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's a heck of a lot of WAA for at least half of NC. Granted 850s crash again after this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18 inches for me and 19 inches for you lets take that and run to the bank. 17 inches here. LOL. I'll believe that when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 17 inches here. LOL. I'll believe that when I see it.Combine totals. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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