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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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If the Euro is right I think CLT would score...of course obviously further north the better. Models usually never get CAD right and are warmer than reality. Even if you mix some we would still net out at 4-8 I would think.

We definitely see mishandling of CAD frequently so I was already intrigued before that run. Good to see you saying "Boom!" again, sucks you won't be here to enjoy if things come to fruition. Sitting on the NW side of the county should be good to keep down on mixing compared to other areas if it does evolve as shown but I'm leery since it seems I can't escape a wintry mix since moving over there. I blame the river :P.

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Really all we need to watch for a trend is the HP. the stronger it is the further the cold and heavy snow moves south.... thats really the only thing keeping the storm out of NC.

 

If you can go check out the qpf maps for EUO  Central NC is getting 2-2.5 inches of qpf which is just shy of what Central VA is getting....  IF that CAD can hold just a little further south.... bye bye Raleigh haha

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We definitely see mishandling of CAD frequently so I was already intrigued before that run. Good to see you saying "Boom!" again, sucks you won't be here to enjoy if things come to fruition. Sitting on the NW side of the county should be good to keep down on mixing compared to other areas if it does evolve as shown but I'm leery since it seems I can't escape a wintry mix since moving over there. I blame the river :P.

 

I'll be up for the Euro for you guys this week lol. The thing I like about this run is that we have that high dropping in a great position and then with so much energy you're going to get cold air wrapping in over top and the back if that low bombs out. I still wanna see the GFS come around though. I don't buy what the GFS is selling...but this setup is almost too good to believe on the Euro. 

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The 1028 HPS looks to be up over Penn / NY state line.  You can see the CAD signature well at 90 hours and then it slides even farther south over Virginia and at 96 hours.  Super CAD at 102 hours and pressure down to 1023. Good CAD signature all the way back into NEGA.

 

Really makes me wonder what those surface temps would look like if taken literally.  Temp maps have NEGA area in the mid to upper 30's.  I am sure evaporational cooling will need to be factored in.  I would think upstate of SC would be in a mess.  

 

If I was in Upper and West NC, I would be yelling... "Check please!"

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Yeah, for Miller Bs to work for us, we really need a transfer down there, IIRC?  I believe the Blizzard of '96 had a transfer that far south.

 

Anyways, DT posted this EuroWx snowfall map from the 12z Euro:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-9415-0-05269500-1453142639.jpg (NOTE: This is snow only... lots more ice for most of NC, too.)

 

(As I understand it, this is fine to post, right?  This isn't from WB, but DT already put it out in the public domain and I am just linking to it?)

 

Unbelievable cutoff at the eastern edge of Wake Co.  A foot to an inch (of snow -- more ice would be in the east as you mention) in roughly 25 miles.

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The shortwave that ripples through the Great Lakes and off the mid-atlantic coast hr48-72 was farther south this run - helps to keep the colder temp profile farther south prior to the storm moving in.

 

What do you think of this setup Grit for CLT?  Haven't seen you post about it. 

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Anybody know where i can see historical maps for 2015? I normally use NARR on e-wall but 2015 is not available there.

 

I'm wanted to go back and look at the ice-storm from February last year as all the models busted badly on it's penetration into SC and GA.  I believe that this wedge was from a very  weak HP that wasn't modeled all that well until the very short term when models starts jumping the low pressure around the wedging high instead of plowing through it.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20150216_winterstorm

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Yeah, for Miller Bs to work for us, we really need a transfer down there, IIRC?  I believe the Blizzard of '96 had a transfer that far south.

 

Yes in 96 we had just an inverted trough set up over the TN valley with the coastal bombing off the SE coast.

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Crippling ice storm.  Similar look to what the GFS/Euro were showing 4-5 days out for the mega ice storm from last Feb (?) which wasn't nearly as bad.  Did get a healthy dose of sleet and zr, though...followed by that burst of snow a day or so later.

 

To clarify, I don't mean for the same area -- just that amount of QPF as ice.  That was a Central NC/SC icestorm IIRC.

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Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little.

Most honest, common sense thing I've ever read.

IN all Honesty the Euro looks amazing. But this is Monday. Still need to keep everything in check. The CAD looks good, LP is in a more favorable position to have colder air. Watching QPF is good as well. That's all that is really important at this stage. Too early for mostly everything else considering there are still pretty big differences between models.

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