WxKnurd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If the Euro is right I think CLT would score...of course obviously further north the better. Models usually never get CAD right and are warmer than reality. Even if you mix some we would still net out at 4-8 I would think. We definitely see mishandling of CAD frequently so I was already intrigued before that run. Good to see you saying "Boom!" again, sucks you won't be here to enjoy if things come to fruition. Sitting on the NW side of the county should be good to keep down on mixing compared to other areas if it does evolve as shown but I'm leery since it seems I can't escape a wintry mix since moving over there. I blame the river . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Do you have qpf outputs for HKY and Morganton? About 1.4". The foothills aren't as heavy with the QPF, not that it really matters 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Really all we need to watch for a trend is the HP. the stronger it is the further the cold and heavy snow moves south.... thats really the only thing keeping the storm out of NC. If you can go check out the qpf maps for EUO Central NC is getting 2-2.5 inches of qpf which is just shy of what Central VA is getting.... IF that CAD can hold just a little further south.... bye bye Raleigh haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We definitely see mishandling of CAD frequently so I was already intrigued before that run. Good to see you saying "Boom!" again, sucks you won't be here to enjoy if things come to fruition. Sitting on the NW side of the county should be good to keep down on mixing compared to other areas if it does evolve as shown but I'm leery since it seems I can't escape a wintry mix since moving over there. I blame the river . I'll be up for the Euro for you guys this week lol. The thing I like about this run is that we have that high dropping in a great position and then with so much energy you're going to get cold air wrapping in over top and the back if that low bombs out. I still wanna see the GFS come around though. I don't buy what the GFS is selling...but this setup is almost too good to believe on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z JMA update because... why not? It is onboard with a major storm with tons of QPF in our areas, it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro much closer to my line of thinking. The coastal low is going to jump quicker and farther south, near SC/GA coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro much closer to my line of thinking. The coastal low is going to jump quicker and farther south, near SC/GA coast line. This would be good for I-85 in South Carolina and all of North Carolina I would think. I would not think Ice would be on the table for this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Tweet from Wxsouth: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 4s4 seconds ago Historic Winter storm on ECMWF run today for #vawx #ncwx Mega Snow, Serious #ice. More of upstate #scwx shown now. #wvwx and VA over 2 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro much closer to my line of thinking. The coastal low is going to jump quicker and farther south, near SC/GA coast line. Yeah, for Miller Bs to work for us, we really need a transfer down there, IIRC? I believe the Blizzard of '96 had a transfer that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 12z EURO Raleigh is 1-2 degrees away from 2+ feet of snow.... And it would absolutely POUR snow in 6 hrs (more like 5) euro give central nc 1-1.3 inches of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The shortwave that ripples through the Great Lakes and off the mid-atlantic coast hr48-72 was farther south this run - helps to keep the colder temp profile farther south prior to the storm moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 1028 HPS looks to be up over Penn / NY state line. You can see the CAD signature well at 90 hours and then it slides even farther south over Virginia and at 96 hours. Super CAD at 102 hours and pressure down to 1023. Good CAD signature all the way back into NEGA. Really makes me wonder what those surface temps would look like if taken literally. Temp maps have NEGA area in the mid to upper 30's. I am sure evaporational cooling will need to be factored in. I would think upstate of SC would be in a mess. If I was in Upper and West NC, I would be yelling... "Check please!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Forgive the MBY-ish sound, but how far sound is sub-0c 850 going on that Euro run. I'll be on the road Saturday. Are surface temps south and west of RDU looking icy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, for Miller Bs to work for us, we really need a transfer down there, IIRC? I believe the Blizzard of '96 had a transfer that far south. Anyways, DT posted this EuroWx snowfall map from the 12z Euro: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-9415-0-05269500-1453142639.jpg (NOTE: This is snow only... lots more ice for most of NC, too.) (As I understand it, this is fine to post, right? This isn't from WB, but DT already put it out in the public domain and I am just linking to it?) Unbelievable cutoff at the eastern edge of Wake Co. A foot to an inch (of snow -- more ice would be in the east as you mention) in roughly 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Unbelievable cutoff at the eastern edge of Wake Co. A foot to an inch (of snow -- more ice would be in the east as you mention) in roughly 25 miles. And then... Ice ice ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Going to be very close on the temps and who changes to Sleet or ZR. I could see 25-30 miles making a huge difference in change over or mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The shortwave that ripples through the Great Lakes and off the mid-atlantic coast hr48-72 was farther south this run - helps to keep the colder temp profile farther south prior to the storm moving in. What do you think of this setup Grit for CLT? Haven't seen you post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anybody know where i can see historical maps for 2015? I normally use NARR on e-wall but 2015 is not available there. I'm wanted to go back and look at the ice-storm from February last year as all the models busted badly on it's penetration into SC and GA. I believe that this wedge was from a very weak HP that wasn't modeled all that well until the very short term when models starts jumping the low pressure around the wedging high instead of plowing through it. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20150216_winterstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The PARA showed an energy transfer for the low over to Savannah Ga and then really bombing out as it heads North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And then... Ice ice ice Crippling ice storm. Similar look to what the GFS/Euro were showing 4-5 days out for the mega ice storm from last Feb (?) which wasn't nearly as bad. Did get a healthy dose of sleet and zr, though...followed by that burst of snow a day or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, for Miller Bs to work for us, we really need a transfer down there, IIRC? I believe the Blizzard of '96 had a transfer that far south. Yes in 96 we had just an inverted trough set up over the TN valley with the coastal bombing off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Crippling ice storm. Similar look to what the GFS/Euro were showing 4-5 days out for the mega ice storm from last Feb (?) which wasn't nearly as bad. Did get a healthy dose of sleet and zr, though...followed by that burst of snow a day or so later. To clarify, I don't mean for the same area -- just that amount of QPF as ice. That was a Central NC/SC icestorm IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 @111 BOOM! She's bombing out and cold air is coming in. Nothing like Burger dropping in with the BOOM from Amsterdam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little. lol. Atlanta getting screwed describes basically every single snowstorm every winter. Its normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little. lol. I've always said, CLT usually gets what Atlanta gets!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I actually don't like the way the Drunk DOC is all over the place with the SFC Low. Looks very weird how its bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, this is one Euro run- no need for these super specific details. Will this be a huge storm for someone? Yes. Will Atlanta get screwed? Of course.Beyond that we still know little.Most honest, common sense thing I've ever read.IN all Honesty the Euro looks amazing. But this is Monday. Still need to keep everything in check. The CAD looks good, LP is in a more favorable position to have colder air. Watching QPF is good as well. That's all that is really important at this stage. Too early for mostly everything else considering there are still pretty big differences between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol. Atlanta getting screwed describes basically every single snowstorm every winter. Its normal. True dat. Cheeze always takes my wishcasting hopes and dreams and throws them out with the Canadian model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is Ray's thoughts. I think it will be this or the way north track. We will see that track wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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