DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw. 06z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still don't think the models even have a definite clue yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS at 6z is giving the CLT metro a 99.9% chance at a foot of snow. Two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL the 06Z GFS BUFKIT for Greenville now has 12.9" of snow and 0.6" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not too bad for KGSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still don't think the models even have a definite clue yet. i think they have a good overall idea, but the dividing lines between frz rain/sleet/snow is so small it will be hard to nail down until we can see it on the radar and out of our windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It will come down to the strength of the CAD and the position of the low off our coast. Even with us only 24 hours from the start of the storm, the next models runs are very crucial. The problem is the storm digs to much and even though on most models the new low forms on the GA/SC border they all move it NNE instead of NE and hug the coastline.....this is no good, when the lows are that strong and that close the WAA is stronger and faster than modeled every time. I guess however if it digs hard enough it can pull the colder air in closer to the west side. Good luck you Triangle folks are gonna need it if the models have the track right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 clt 06z gfs. little bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think anyone south of Roanoke is safe from sleet. Even as the EURO continue to dump 20-30" up here and the GFS 14"+...NAM really seems to want to give everyone sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw. 06z gfs. We need to get rid of that rain. We just need a degree or two colder. That would be a good amount of snow before the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4k nam gives rdu points west a good intial thump of snow before changeover to rain/frz rain and the backend snow is impressive down to storm in chs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Think if the Nam will get it together with all the rest of guidance today, everyone in met world will feel more comfortable beefing up totals. Good to see gFS fall in line with euro on the finer details (transition lines, times). But like wow said as long as the Nam keeps holding the primary longer and super amplifying, it will continue to put out the same picture at the mid levels. Last night euro run was worth the lost sleep; Absoloute best and at 24 hours out instead of 7 days; Anyway tommorrow will be the 3rd time in five days alot of us have seen snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think anyone south of Roanoke is safe from sleet. Even as the EURO continue to dump 20-30" up here and the GFS 14"+...NAM really seems to want to give everyone sleet/ice. I don't think Roanoke is safe. Hour 45 at 775mb 0.0 Warm nose is often stronger than modeled so I am expecting some sleet. This is 1 degree colder than 00z last night so maybe it will trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw. 06z gfs. Are these liquid equivalent or actual accumulations? 1.2" snow seems a bit low for RDU, but 12" seems really high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do wish all models would come around to the more southerly solution, the 03Z SREF is disconcerting as well. I always get nervous until all are on board. My pessimistic nature setting in. I am with you... I am just catching up on all the threads / models... realizing I wish I lived in Boone or Hickory instead of Holly Springs... The latest models show us getting a lot of rain (which we don't need) and very little frozen stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CAD is already starting to kick in up a little in VA. I am thinking those low 40's forecasted here might bust. All in all fits well with the colder trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Are these liquid equivalent or actual accumulations? 1.2" snow seems a bit low for RDU, but 12" seems really high. liquid eq. not sure if it is wonky with temps but it has been showing really low liq eq for rdu and this run it finally showed a lot more initial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Backside Band on the GFS is looking stout for the upstate. I woudn't be surpised if localized area's in North Georgia or Upstate SC get 5 or 6 inches of snow late Friday night from this. Yes sir! I think the models, and the NWS offices are under-estimating that RH fields, the cold punch at 5k...etc....That will be very fun to watch...Get ready sir, y'all are gonna get hit hard with ICE IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 9z SREF is out on NCEP. Looks like the features are a bit slower and/or south a tick from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 liquid eq. not sure if it is wonky with temps but it has been showing really low liq eq for rdu and this run it finally showed a lot more initial snow. No kidding! Hopefully this verifies, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I'm interested to see how the 12z models trend, despite the storm being so close. Like FallsLake said, just a degree or two colder would change that rain over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am with you... I am just catching up on all the threads / models... realizing I wish I lived in Boone or Hickory instead of Holly Springs... The latest models show us getting a lot of rain (which we don't need) and very little frozen stuff... Of course Boone would be great but.....I am liking the trends for that deformation band to move across our area with 12:1 ratios. I would not be surprised to see a lot of folks in N GA getting a couple of inches and much more in the far NE corner of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 745 am.. Here's our latest snow/sleet accumulation forecasts through Saturday night. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam is running, lets see if it continues to shift that slp north into the convective band or comes around to the euro/gfs solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 745 am.. Here's our latest snow/sleet accumulation forecasts through Saturday night. #ncwx It's always good to see that you are going to miss snow by less than 60 miles. Gotta love living on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam is running, lets see if it continues to shift that slp north into the convective band or comes around to the euro/gfs solution Looks like it's deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF is actually more south of the last run. 21z 3z SREF is definitely still figuring things out, it's probabilities were useless as the s/w stayed positive and never even went neutral yesterday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like it's deeper. Looks like a huge jump eastward at hour 9; or maybe I'm not comparing it correctly to hour 3 at 6z. Edit: I was looking at the hours backwards.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a huge jump eastward at hour 9; or maybe I'm not comparing it correctly to hour 3 at 6z. Edit: I was looking at the hours backwards.. looks identical out to 15 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a huge jump eastward at hour 9; or maybe I'm not comparing it correctly to hour 3 at 6z. Energy is slightly deeper and more positively oriented at hr 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think Roanoke is safe. Hour 45 at 775mb 0.0 Warm nose is often stronger than modeled so I am expecting some sleet. This is 1 degree colder than 00z last night so maybe it will trend colder. It's anecdotal local climo that the sleet/snow line will establish roughly from the NW corner of Henry County to the SW corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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