Tacoma Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Winds could be a big issue and I haven't seen it talked about much. Places that get significant ice buildup or a heavy wet snow could be in real trouble once the winds start cranking. I'm reading that wind gust in Asheville will be around 25 to 40 with heavy snow, sounds almost like blizzard conditions for all the mtns. deformation zone also pivots around to include n.ga, nw upstate and wnc and points east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I fell asleep before the euro came out. Oops. Anyway, that's the best one yet. It kills the primary quickly enough to put down a bunch of snow on the backend with the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From WRAL:SE of Raleigh expect some wintry mix early but rain for the afternoon. We could see 1-2" of RAIN by Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP new snowfall maps has KAVL at 11-12 inches but most models say 12-18, either way, WOW! unbelievable. In GSP discussion they do throw out in the WSW that anywhere from 8-18 inches of snow, I guess if we get in on the deformation zone it could be the 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From WRAL: SE of Raleigh expect some wintry mix early but rain for the afternoon. We could see 1-2" of RAIN by Saturday Really! OMG! I agree conservative, but jeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From WRAL: SE of Raleigh expect some wintry mix early but rain for the afternoon. We could see 1-2" of RAIN by Saturday Welcome to my world Friday Night Rain, mainly before 4am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 37. Northeast wind 10 to 16 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 and a big south trend with the 6z GFS. ULL cuts off more and shifts everything south. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From WRAL: SE of Raleigh expect some wintry mix early but rain for the afternoon. We could see 1-2" of RAIN by Saturday There will most likely be a sharp transition zone across the Triangle. NW half will most likely stay below freezing while areas in the SE transition over to rain. As with any winter storm, things can change some; a little warmer air could get pushed in and even the NW sections go over to rain; or a little colder air stays locked in and most stay below freezing. Again the models will be big today for these small details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and a big south trend with the 6z GFS. ULL cuts off more and shifts everything south. Wow. coming in line with the Euro track would put more folks in line for snow, hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has everybody seen the huge differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS give RDU north and west > 12" and the NAM barely gives anybody outside the mountains 3". I would assume the GFS is showing all wintery types and the NAM actual snow; but man the NAM is low: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=06&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has everybody seen the huge differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS give RDU north and west > 12" and the NAM barely gives anybody outside the mountains 3". I would assume the GFS is showing all wintery types and the NAM actual snow; but man the NAM is low: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=06&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false There is a very BIG difference in precip types on the 06Z GFS and 06Z NAM. According to the meteogram generator, Hickory gets 13 inches of snow and virtually no ice on the GFS versus 3 inches of snow and 1.2 inches QPF of sleet. But, I'm leaning toward the GFS since the CMC and ECMWF show similar snowfall totals. The NAM seems to be alone on this. It could, of course, still be right, but I'd not be willing to bet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's the GFS breakdown for RDU http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_krdu.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Forecast soundings on the 6z GFS for RDU: 5.2" - Snow 1.47" - Sleet 0.74" - ZR 2.62" - total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know we are basically going to be all sleet/ZR through the meat of the storm, but that 06z GFS snow map has 14-16"+ inches down to mby!!Meh a lot of sleet and 2" of snow at least good sledding. Take the safe side and don't bite on the big amounts for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Backside Band on the GFS is looking stout for the upstate. I woudn't be surpised if localized area's in North Georgia or Upstate SC get 5 or 6 inches of snow late Friday night from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to focus closely on skew t's and thickness nomograms to get best handle on Precip type I will try to post a few and perhaps other could too for the critical transition zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is Matthew East's thoughts and video. He may pop in here, but I imagine he has his hands full this morning! http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @nws_gsp Latest water vapor images showed the #winterstorm developing across the Great Plains, tracking E toward the S. Apps: https://twitter.com/nwsgsp/status/690140326279921664 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sounds like great runs by the Euro and the GFS last night. Love to see the Euro track further east off NC. Looks like more snow and less ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sounds like great runs by the Euro and the GFS last night. Love to see the Euro track further east off NC. Looks like more snow and less ice here.looks like tons of sleet back on this side of Durham. I wonder if there will be thunder, 1996 had a few bouts of thundersleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With the nice Euro/GFS runs last night for central NC, where are people getting the increase in rain from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and a big south trend with the 6z GFS. ULL cuts off more and shifts everything south. Wow. My only worry is what are the global models seeing the NAM isn't? We're starting to get into the NAM's wheel house especially come 00z. The NAM is usually better at handling the cold profiles...hopefully it makes a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My only worry is what are the global models seeing the NAM isn't? We're starting to get into the NAM's wheel house especially come 00z. The NAM is usually better at handling the cold profiles...hopefully it makes a shift.The 6z NAM was alot further south than the disastrous 0z, that took a jog NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Real Time Nomogram Plots and Partial Thickness Data TREND’s 6 hourly predominant p-type categories include: All snow All snow or snow/sleet mix Icing – measurable sleet with freezing rain Icing – freezing rain mixed with trace frozen Freezing rain or rain Rain Measurable snow with rain Wintry mixtures Changes to or mixing with other p-types are in part determined by noting which predominant p-type category the thickness values are trending toward. When the partial thickness values are located near an adjacent p-type category and are trending toward that adjacent category, forecasters should reflect this trend in their 6 hourly forecast of p-type. Reference material and current observed are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/nomogram Specific GFS Nomogram Forecasts are here: Use top tabs for common geographical boundary cities. http://www.weather.gov/rah/gfsnomogram Specific NAM Nomogram Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/namnomogram Specific Canadian GEM RUC Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/canadiangemnomogram Specific WRF-ARM Nomogram forecasts are ehre: http://www.weather.gov/rah/wrfarwnomogram Specific RUC Nomogram Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/rucnomogram Data is not available for the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Two trends for central NC that are disconcerting for winter weather fans: the initial precip is getting delayed, especially in the NAM. Secondly, there is an increase in precip rates early Friday night just as surface temps rise to or above freezing. With that said, the 6Z GFS was colder overall for RDU and points north and west, indicating the potential for several inches of snow/sleet before transitioning to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 My only worry is what are the global models seeing the NAM isn't? We're starting to get into the NAM's wheel house especially come 00z. The NAM is usually better at handling the cold profiles...hopefully it makes a shift. yeah that's quite a warm nose the NAM moves in. That's why I'd like to see the primary die off as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 6z NAM was alot further south than the disastrous 0z, that took a jog NW I do wish all models would come around to the more southerly solution, the 03Z SREF is disconcerting as well. I always get nervous until all are on board. My pessimistic nature setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Two trends for central NC that are disconcerting for winter weather fans: the initial precip is getting delayed, especially in the NAM. Secondly, there is an increase in precip rates early Friday night just as surface temps rise to or above freezing. With that said, the 6Z GFS was colder overall for RDU and points north and west, indicating the potential for several inches of snow/sleet before transitioning to freezing rain. It will come down to the strength of the CAD and the position of the low off our coast. Even with us only 24 hours from the start of the storm, the next models runs are very crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My only worry is what are the global models seeing the NAM isn't? We're starting to get into the NAM's wheel house especially come 00z. The NAM is usually better at handling the cold profiles...hopefully it makes a shift. There was a physics problem in the NAM and GEM for some reason. HRRR stayed course and is actually digging much further than the NAM right now. You will hopefully see the NAM trend more south. I do, however, think the warm nose will be stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do wish all models would come around to the more southerly solution, the 03Z SREF is disconcerting as well. I always get nervous until all are on board. My pessimistic nature setting in. SREF is actually more south of the last run. 21z 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.