BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Freezing rain advisories now up as close to the coast as inland horry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's a chance of greatness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For My Area Greater Burke(Morganton/Valdese) Just Issued From GSP: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 434 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...AREAS OF BLACK ICE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... ...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR BECOME SLICK DUE TO LINGERING SNOW PACK OR BLACK ICE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. NCZ035-502-504-506-508-510-211800- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.160122T0500Z-160124T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0002.160122T0500Z-160124T0000Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160121T1200Z/ ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE... STONY POINT...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...FOREST CITY... RUTHERFORDTON...COLUMBUS 434 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...BLACK ICE ON WET ROADS THIS MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. * TIMING...BLACK ICE WILL REMAIN ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO FALL AS SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. MODERATE SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SLEET MAY BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * IMPACTS...BLACK ICE COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROADS THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MEANS THAT REFREEZING OF ROADS WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. BE PREPARED FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. SOME ROADS THAT APPEAR CLEAR MAY BE COVERED BY A THIN LAYER OF ICE. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Winter Storm Warning for a wintry mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * Locations... northern Piedmont of upstate South Carolina... including the Greenville-Spartanburg area... and the southwest Piedmont of North Carolina... including the Charlotte Metro area. * Hazards... a mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow accumulations. * Timing... from late Thursday night through Saturday evening. * Accumulations... snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches... along with one quarter to four tenths of an inch of ice. * Impacts... the forecast amounts of snow and ice will make travel very dangerous. Heavy ice accumulation could result in power outages and downed tree limbs. * Temperatures... in the low 30s. * Winds... northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z GFS is taking a step south... transfer is over SAV and the LP doesn't make it quite as far north in AL. Looks a little slower, too. The CAD signature continues to grow stronger with each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z gfs looks to be a colder run at the surface. The initial low looks about 50 miles south of 0z and a touch weaker. Looks like a good run coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like more snow in the upstate of SC on this run. Colder surface temps into SC for a longer period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like more snow in the upstate of SC on this run. Colder surface temps into SC for a longer period. The 500 mb ULL is centered around Augusta, GA at hr 51. Time to look at the surface and precip maps now (was just looking at the 500 mb/MSLP map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18 inches showing up for the Triad on the GFS. Looks like almost all snow for Winston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18 inches showing up for the Triad on the GFS. Looks like almost all snow for Winston! Absolutely getting hammered from hr 36-45! Holy crap! Very close to sleeting, but verbatim it's a little S of I-40. HUGE run. QPF is higher this run, as well. Surface temps never climb out of the 20s along I-85 (even into SC). This is a huge run for the I-85 corridor and N/W. 06z is the new happy hour??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This would cut into those totals though pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Absolutely getting hammered from hr 36-45! Holy crap! Very close to sleeting, but verbatim it's a little S of I-40. HUGE run. QPF is higher this run, as well. Surface temps never climb out of the 20s along I-85 (even into SC). This is a huge run for the I-85 corridor and N/W. 06z is the new happy hour??? You know the sleet is coming. Lots of WAA virtually always cut our totals. Jan 96 was very cold storm yet at the height of the storm we had several hours of sleet. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You know the sleet is coming. Lots of WAA virtually always cut our totals. Jan 96 was very cold storm yet at the height of the storm we had several hours of sleet. Bank on i. Oh, yeah, I know. I definitely expect it. Without sleet, we probably easily surpass a foot, but I expect enough sleet to keep us more in the 6-12" area (as it stands now). It's practically impossible to have a big storm here without mixing. Upon looking at the soundings, I honestly think those graphs above are a little overdone with regards to the sleet, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM has me a little nervous for the I-85 corridor. During the heart of the storm we end up with a raging sleet storm. NAM usually has a better handle on temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6Z GFS showing a lot of mixing for folks in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just getting caught up as I took the advice of the wife and slept last night. GSP pulled the WSS trigger (as stated) and posted new maps were totals are BEEFED up from the 1:00am map update. Beefed up for the Southern foothills . I Assume this is due to model agreement overnight. Glad everyone for the 00ZNAM"d out of the system. The other 00Z runs and now the 6Z GFS and NAM seems to really be hoeing in on the zones of action. Thanks for the overnight disco brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH hasn't put out a detailed morning discussion yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAH hasn't put out a detailed morning discussion yet... Yeah they did at 4:46am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also A good bit of snow. Starting to hone in on the ice/snow line. Thanks for posting thats a great map. 6Z GFS showing a lot of mixing for folks in NC gfs_ptype_accum_nc_14.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's amazing how much colder the models are trending.... Here is a sounding for Clemson,SC at 7am, snow! I don't believe there's anyway we get front end snow, but we'll see. I would love to be wrong. Also, the models are really putting the bullseye on the western upstate/NE ga for the backside snows. This looks like it could be a widespread 2 to 4 inch late friday night. Thermal profiles are plenty cold by then. I have never had backside snow work out for my backyard, so again, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TV here in Wake county (Raleigh) says we have a high chance of (83% on their probability map) of seeing snow/sleet up to 4in. They are saying 50% chance for over .25in or more of icing. This is so far and it's not 6am yet. I saw we have a warning. Haven't read it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm liking the pivotal weather site. Here is the 6z gfs snowfall using the Kuchera ratio. This should be all snow. And here is the 0z...what a difference!!! By the way, if you use the website, you can click on a location and get a sounding. Could be useful today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just read the RAH discussion. Seems like they are definitely worried more about ice accumulations in the triangle than anything..they also mention the possibility of snow and sleet totals between 1-3 inches. They aren't sure about who will get the wraparound snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6.4 inches of snow, .75 sleet, and .75 ZR...oh goodie. Thanks GFS. And all I wanted was 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 After looking through soundings. I think the northern upstate should be mainly sleet as the main band comes through friday. I believe this will play out much like last february's storm. North of I-85 in SC will be mainly sleet with just a light glaze. South of I-85, including athens,elberton, laurens, east to columbia, then up to hartsville will receive the band of significant ice accretion. What are our other North Georgia posters thinking? Lookout, Dacula?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WOW! I know we are basically going to be all sleet/ZR through the meat of the storm, but that 06z GFS snow map has 14-16"+ inches down to mby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree. Just looking at the sounds for the 06 runs that warm nose around 850 is still present. Lots of qpf to go around... After looking through soundings. I think the northern upstate should be mainly sleet as the main band comes through friday. I believe this will play out much like last february's storm. North of I-85 in SC will be mainly sleet with just a light glaze. South of I-85, including athens,elberton, laurens, east to columbia, then up to hartsville will receive the band of significant ice accretion. What are our other North Georgia posters thinking? Lookout, Dacula?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think you area goes lock in step with what Burrel posted above. Looks like a heavy heavy dose of IP in the upstate. I know we are basically going to be all sleet/ZR through the meat of the storm, but that 06z GFS snow map has 14-16"+ inches down to mby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Since I'm greedy, I'm looking to see if anyone meets blizzard criteria outside the mountains. At hour 54, KCLT is close with 28 degrees, at least moderate snow and winds blowing at 21 mph/gusting to 36. Winds could be a big issue and I haven't seen it talked about much. Places that get significant ice buildup or a heavy wet snow could be in real trouble once the winds start cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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