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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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lj0109

lj0109

Posted
Posted

After the other modeling.. I would expect the Euro to be just a tad warm.. the line might would drop to around Orangeburg, SC when all said and done.

 

Would not be surprised to see that scenario play out..certainly a very real possibility.  Every run has been a degree or two colder over the past 24 hours for CAE. Gonna be close to being an icy mess.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Not to be too MBY-ish, but how does Burlington-Mebane look? Normally, I wouldn't bother, but with a run like this I gotta know.

 

A little more mixing, but you're still 10-15", I'd say.  The clown shows 14".

 

Also, RDU looks like snow to IP to ZR and back to snow with the ULL passage.  Quite similar to the February 2014 event in evolution, IMO.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

If you go to DT's Facebook page, he posted the EuroWx clown map. Looks more bullish than the WB one as GSO and HKY look to be in the 18-24" category. His frame is too far north to see CLT.

Thanks for that James appreciate it man. This has been a lot of model watching the past several days for all of us. Thanks for always being on the ball.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Thanks for that James appreciate it man. This has been a lot of model watching the past several days for all of us. Thanks for always being on the ball.

 

No problem!

 

Looks like the EPS held serve or maybe even was a little south coming over AL/GA.  The members are much more tightly clustered compared to the 12z EPS.  The wedging looked more pronounced.  There looks to be an icing signal for N SC all the way over to places like Darlington and Florence and down to close to Columbia.

 

It's also a bit wetter run than the 12z for most of NC/SC.  A little drier in N GA.

 

Also, we've got severe weather possibly along the Gulf coast.  What a storm!

 

25ggi76.gif

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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted

CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

 

00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

The 06z NAM has stepped back from the ledge and is colder, both in the mid-levels and at 2m, compared to its 00z run. QPF totals are also back up some.

Bad ice storm for N SC from about Florence on westward.

I feel like the nam has delayed the storm further up this way however.

Solid drubbing for the area however. Qpf totals of 1.25-1.75"

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wxduncan

wxduncan

Posted
Posted

Has anyone noticed that the GEFS gives most of the Piedmont and foothills from CLT to the mountains at least an 80% chance of 12"?

Yeah sure did below are the chances(%) of 6 inches and 12 inches of snow in NC,SC and VA.

Almost 100% chance of at least 6 inches in all of NC(except far eastern) and 80 % chance of at least 12 inches in CLT and Points West In NC :)

image.png

image.png

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wxduncan

wxduncan

Posted
Posted

From GSP Just Now:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...ALL IS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AS WE AWAIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST/MS DELTA REGION LATER TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH
SOME FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO.
WILL RETAIN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE BLACK ICE
THREAT WHERE THE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT HAVE ACCUMULATED ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH
THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB REGULARLY...BUT
WILL TOP OUT ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CROSS OVERHEAD DURING MIDDAY...FOLLOWED SHORTLY BY THE
850MB RIDGE AXIS. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...CHANGES WILL HAPPEN SWIFTLY
AND DECISIVELY AS DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND
ALL MANNER OF FORCING IS BROUGHT TO BEAR FROM THE SW. HAVE NO
PROBLEM WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP UP
FROM THE SW FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING NE THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE PRECIPITATING EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THE FORM THAT PRECIP WILL TAKE IS THE IMPORTANT QUESTION.

A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOISTENS THE COLUMN FROM MID LEVELS DOWN
TO THE SFC...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET OVER THE NRN ZONES. IT IS FROM
THAT POINT...ROUGHLY FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD...THAT THE SITUATION
GETS PROBLEMATIC AND INTERESTING. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
AS THE LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS UP FROM THE SW...DIABATIC EFFECTS WILL
TAKE OVER AND FORM A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH A STRENGTHENING
BARRIER JET AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE THAT BRINGS COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NE. THAT SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
SLEET AND THEN SNOW ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADING OUTWARD
FROM THERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR...WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THERE. AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTH AND THE WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ABOVE
THAT...PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITION ZONE. NOTE THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS THAT
CAN GO WRONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST AT BEST FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT. IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT FORECASTING A CHANGEOVER IF THE PRECIP
BEGINS AS RAIN IS A SUCKERS BET. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG AND DOES
NOT HAVE ESPECIALLY DRY AND/OR COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THE
CAD DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE...HOW FAR THE BARRIER JET WILL
BE ABLE TO DRIVE THE SUB-FREEZING SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TO THE
SOUTH AGAINST THE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE IS THE KEY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CHANGEOVER IS BEST OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS/NRN FOOTHILLS/BLUE
RIDGE AND GOES DOWN FROM THERE...TO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ESPECIALLY GREAT DOWN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE OLD WATCH AREA. THE
END RESULT OF THE FCST SUGGESTS CONVERSION OF THE WATCH TO A
WARNING...BUT NO EXPANSION THEREOF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...LATEST WV LOOP INDICATES A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER KS WITH A SECOND LOW OVER NRN TX. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PHASE OVER THE AR/LA LATE THIS EVENING...AGREED WELL
BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM. I WILL BLEND BETWEEN THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR TOP-DOWN P-
TYPE METHOD FRI-SAT.

ON FRIDAY...AT 12Z...290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH 18Z. AT
H85...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING TO
40 KTS BY 18Z...PROVIDING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE MTNS. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE FIELD OF STRONG H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z TO 0Z SAT. THERE IS NO
QUESTION THE PRECIP WILL COVER 100 PERCENT OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE TEMP AND P-TYPE FORECASTS.
SFC TEMPS WERE DETERMINED BY BLENDING THE NAM12...RAWBLEND...AND
SUPERBLEND ON A HOURLY BASIS. THE COOLING TREND IN LLVL TEMPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. PROVIDED
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING BL JET AND UPSLOPE COOLING WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOWFALL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS.
BELOW FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH ON NE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS ACROSS THE I-77 TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
WILL BE THE PRIME REGION FOR FZRA. NC MTNS ZONES WEST OF THE EAST
FACING SLOPES WILL SEE RAPID P-TYPE CHANGES AS THE SFC LOW PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION...SEEING ALL P-TYPES ON FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
NRN MTNS EAST ACROSS THE UNIFOUR. A BAND OF DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST ALONG I-85 FROM GREENVILLE EAST ACROSS THE
CLT METRO...WITH SEVERAL AREAS TOTALING OVER .4 OF ICE. THE CURRENT
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. A RAY OF GOOD
NEWS...LIQUID QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION. HYDRO ISSUES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE PRECIP WAS NOT
FALLING A FREEZING OR FROZEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE H5 CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS A BAND OF DEFORMATION PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SN WILL TRACK FROM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT. THIS SNOW FALL MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...NWFS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE CWA. CAA AND A FRESH 10-20 INCH SNOW PACK SHOULD LIMIT
HIGH TEMPS ON SAT TO THE 20S. EAST OF THE MTNS...TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. SAT NIGHT...NWFS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WINDS WEAKEN AND MOISTURE ERODES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S EAST.
AN ISSUE WITH BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM SAT MELT WATER.

&&

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