Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With transfers, there is always a precip min. That's just the way it is. It's inescapable. But does it really matter if you get an inch of QPF before it occurs?Yeah it really doesn't. They're could be a good 2-3 hours of heavy precip that makes up for whoever dry slots. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man, the GFS keeps wringing out snow for RDU and point North and east through Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A bit puzzling looking at the Skew-Ts for GSO... The one I posted above is below freezing throughout the column and there's a ton of QPF in that range. Likewise, the hr 36 sounding looks snowy and the ones after 39 are either right at freezing or just above (probably mostly sleet). I'd imagine more than 1" of that is snow. And the remainder looks like sleet, which would add to accumulations to some degree (3:1ish ratio). For Greensboro and this run of the GFS, 850-700mb thick are close to 1550m between 36 and 42hrs (looking at 39 too) with some small waffling back and forth. Does a fit with the nomogram as 1000-850mb thickness is close to 1280m. Right on the line between all snow or snow with sleet, and icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hi sir. I asked the local weather office around here and they have changed a bit around. They recommend the following sites: PSU Warehouse It's not as clean as the old way, but it does work. I manually put urls in when i need to view them on bufget. Sir.... Widre is definitely getting old now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 If that pesky primary low could stay south, this would be a perfect run. The precip on Friday is nearly all snow here. Very interested in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 HRRR is acting more like the 18z NAM than the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For Greensboro and this run of the GFS, 850-700mb thick are close to 1550m between 36 and 42hrs (looking at 39 too) with some small waffling back and forth. Does a fit with the nomogram as 1000-850mb thickness is close to 1280m. Right on the line between all snow or snow with sleet, and icing. Thanks. I have just seen the crappy maps up on Meteociel.fr so far, but the GGEM looks similar to the GFS and sets up I-85/I-40 as the battleground between snow and ice. Looks like an ice storm down into NE GA and upstate SC, as well. Pretty cold at the surface, though it seems to unrealistically (to me) erode the CAD further south as the storm goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man, the GFS keeps wringing out snow for RDU and point North and east through Sunday morning This is an aspect I'm curious about for this event, as I suspect I will go over to rain for some period being as far east as I am. But I'm also about as far north in NC as possible, so I'm wondering how long I can stay in snow on the backside. Its looking like into Sunday morning at least. It will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM, CMC, RGEM icy around Columbia, SC. Now we await the Euro which was dangerously close at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As several have mentioned, the key difference with this set of runs is the earlier and farther west closing off of the ULL. This allows the dry slot to get farther north, before the backside band sets in. This is why the GFS has less snow in western NC than the previous runs of the Euro, NAM etc which had less of a break in the heavier precip due to the dry slot. I doubt this earlier closing off trend reverses, but anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seems like the CMC has switched from mostly ZR to a LOT of sleet in upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM, CMC, RGEM icy around Columbia, SC. Now we await the Euro which was dangerously close at 12z. Notice the trends. Pushing stronger and stronger south with the LL cold advection. kCHS believes at this time, the region down here gets warm sectored on Friday, upper 60's with bulk shear through the roof. Right now, I can conceivably see this and also conceivably see this region get wedged in too. IF KCHS gets locked in the wedge, I will guarantee the SFC low transfer is south of here and of course, puts KCAE in a dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seems like the CMC has switched from mostly ZR to a LOT of sleet in upstate SC. Looks a little colder along the I-40/I-85 corridor, as well, upon first look. And the next panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seems like the CMC has switched from mostly ZR to a LOT of sleet in upstate SC. I'm not so sure looking at temp profiles, it looks like north of I85 stays pretty much snow on CMC. Still lots of icing to go with it though. Gonna be a heck of a storm for the upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks a little colder along the I-40/I-85 corridor, as well, upon first look. James what was the 00z CMC qpf output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh, crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian destroys NE ga with snow instead of ice..curious http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice animation. Thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 James what was the 00z CMC qpf output? Around 1.5" for NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think the model runs were that bad...the NAM is clueless...clearly evident by the CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Around 1.5" for NW NC. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian destroys NE ga with snow instead of ice..curious I agree right up through upstate as well, but stills lots of icing to go with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh, crap. It's just not Columbia's year is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP has expanded WSW southbound in upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Notice the trends. Pushing stronger and stronger south with the LL cold advection. kCHS believes at this time, the region down here gets warm sectored on Friday, upper 60's with bulk shear through the roof. Right now, I can conceivably see this and also conceivably see this region get wedged in too. IF KCHS gets locked in the wedge, I will guarantee the SFC low transfer is south of here and of course, puts KCAE in a dangerous situation. Yes sir, you provide absolutely amazing insight for this region. Thanks very much for it. The only model left to really show ice around here is the Euro and it was around 34-35 at 12z at a point of heavy moisture. Wind would be a problem this way I would bet regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP has expanded WSW southbound in upstate SC.Just what we were talking about earlier! Good trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian destroys NE ga with snow instead of ice..curious http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png Perhaps so far west with the primary, the bulk of the WAA is also west...leaving ne ga just cold enough at all levels for snow? That's all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think the model runs were that bad...the NAM is clueless...clearly evident by the CMC and GFS I think someone has already mentioned that the NAM was emphasizing an MCS and a convective feedback low popped close to the ULL. basically, i see that just ends up screwing up the rest of the run really. Simply put, I still see the possibility pf the transference occurring a bit offshore, particularly if my region gets wedged in. It's also plausible I do get warm sectored on Friday, which of course, my attention will be on SVR given such strong wind fields and ridiculous amounts of shear. (classic high shear, low cape environment). Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 00z UKMET is a bomb. Unbelievable amounts of QPF. Looks to track to N AL, then transfer to S GA and up the NC/SC coast. Unfortunately, it's hard to compare it since it did not run yesterday (or at least it doesn't show up on the Meteocentre site). h5 track looks decent to me. The surface low probably isn't great for the central/eastern Piedmont or certainly the coastal plain, though. Take a look for yourself: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM shows basically no significant wintry precip for RDU. Holds it all off until afternoon when temps warm well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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