burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 36 hours compared to 48 hours on the 18z, RGEM's trend almost identical to 0z NAM at upper levels -- NW of 18z position by a good bit. EDIT -- and stronger. IMO, Stronger 5h low farther NW is strengthening the CAD high down stream. This is why miller A's rarely have freezing rain and Miller B's have lots. If this storm trends further north and stronger, look for more and more CAD areas to be dealing with freezing rain. Looking at the RGEM and the NAM they are doing this very thing. I think it's possible that the midlands of SC may get some serious icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Excellent point. Guess it could be a coincidence, but more likely a new trend has ensued. IMO, Stronger 5h low farther NW is strengthening the CAD high down stream. This is why miller A's rarely have freezing rain and Miller B's have lots. If this storm trends further north and stronger, look for more and more CAD areas to be dealing with freezing rain. Looking at the RGEM and the NAM they are doing this very thing. I think it's possible that the midlands of SC may get some serious icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IMO, Stronger 5h low farther NW is strengthening the CAD high down stream. This is why miller A's rarely have freezing rain and Miller B's have lots. If this storm trends further north and stronger, look for more and more CAD areas to be dealing with freezing rain. Looking at the RGEM and the NAM they are doing this very thing. I think it's possible that the midlands of SC may get some serious icing. Yeah the preliminary maps on the RGEM have a potent ice look for SC. Sleet/mix for central NC before going over to ice then snow? Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM and GEM are both several miles north. Really not good trends at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM sounding here for the hour 48 have +1.1 at 775 mb the whole rest of the sounding through 60 hours is snow and 1.39 total qpf. unless it shifts back south or NAM is wrong, I bet sleet is a problem here. Always seems the warm nose over performs If QPF over performs too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM and GEM are both several miles north. Really not good trends at the moment. Yep, not good at all unless you like sitting in the dark. The biggest trend tonight has been that surface temps are trending way colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I was afraid of that now instead of my nice snow event over I-40. Looks like I deal with ICE or Rain. What? How on earth do you come up with that? First of all, it's never been an all snow event. Secondly, rain? RAIN?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Eric Thomas had a great statement (during the live hangout) about the rates during this event when one is under Freezing rain. Since the rates are progged to be heavy the freezing rain should not have time to accumulate on power lines like a slow drizzle that occurs over a long time period. I can speak to Atlanta in Jan 73 when it poured rain all night, and most of it stuck to everything, and it never moved off 32 the whole time. I saw around 3 inches in Buckhead, my mother saw over three 10 miles away, and I've heard of 5 inches in patches. This from over 2 inches of rain, as Larry told me years later, at the Air Port, and I believe I got a lot more than that in Buckhead. We had power lines down everywhere, like an attack. They pulled down the power poles, blew up transformers. The booming went on all night, and flashes lit up the skies. It was easy to imagine the battle of Atlanta. I walked up to Ptree St near Lenox and as far as you could see in both directions the poles were down and the lines popping. I've never seen the like, and never want to see it again. I can only speak for my immediate neighborhood for first hand accounting, but over two inches of rain, over night, can very well build up on lines, and pull poles down, and the temps don't need to be anywhere but just barely cold enough, if the conditions for icepockyclipse, lol, are just right. Trust me, and don't overlook the seemingly impossible if you are anywhere near something over an inch of ice. Get your generators now, make sure every block has at least one chainsaw, lol...it's some scary ship!! My poor mother had to feed my bed ridden grandmother by sterno stove for 10 days, and heat with gas fireplace logs, and they were in great shape compared to many. It's no place anyone wants to be, and most take the threat of major ice with a devil may care attitude...but it scared the holy ship out of me, and I'm no pantywaiste Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What? How on earth do you come up with that? First of all, it's never been an all snow event. Secondly, rain? RAIN?! I'm half asleep lol and made a spelling mistake my bad fixed it for you. And I know its not always been a pure snow event but for me to go from 10+inches to Freezing Rain or Sleet is a big deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On the other hand, comparing 0z RGEM 500 low position to the 0z NAM, both at 48 hours, we see that the NAM has the low on the Tenn./Alabama line just north of Huntsville, while (at least according to B/W maps) the 0z RGEM has it south of there, just south of Huntsville -- only 50 miles or so, but .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On the other hand, comparing 0z RGEM 500 low position to the 0z NAM, both at 48 hours, we see that the NAM has the low on the Tenn./Alabama line just north of Huntsville, while (at least according to B/W maps) the 0z RGEM has it south of there, just south of Huntsville -- only 50 miles or so, but .... Also has 700mb down in central AL. Not stacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM clown map from Pivotal Weather using the Kuchera method. As stated earlier, this method takes in to account temps from surface to aloft, and varies the ratios based on that. As a result, it does better with the snow flag and tends to omit ip/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh man, RGEM 2m temps are so dang cold -- really starting to fear for folks re: ice storm. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The handling of the ULL isn't going to be in full focus until we're within 24 hrs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It'll be interesting to see if we get as cold as the RGEM indicates. It normally does well in CAD events. If that is right and it's freezing rain it'll be a nightmare for sure. It gets parts of the I-85 corridor in SC as low as 27 and it stays below 30 for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM looks like it wants to pop the low around 7p Friday off of MYR, south of ILM. Edit: there's some insane rates look to be inbound out of northern half of nc as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's a HUGE jog to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00Z RGEM has much more snow for WNC than does the comparable NAM. Check out hours 33 and 36: It does shift to IP for a while after that, but check out the deep blue at 48: Also, this event is way long in duration: Frozen precipitation begins at hour 30 IMBY, and it is still going strong at hour 48 with much more to come. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM looks like it wants to pop the low around 7p Friday off of MYR, south of ILM. Edit: there's some insane rates look to be inbound out of northern half of nc as well. RGEM looks like it wants to pop the low around 7p Friday off of MYR, south of ILM. Edit: there's some insane rates look to be inbound out of northern half of nc as well. Pops it right above charleston by about 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh man, RGEM 2m temps are so dang cold -- really starting to fear for folks re: ice storm. Not good. Yep that's not good at all. Ice at 30-32 and ice at 25-27 are 2 VERY different things. It takes my area down to around 27 and doesn't go back above 30 right through the end of it's run. This would paralyze a large part of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00Z RGEM has much more snow for WNC than does the comparable NAM. Check out hours 33 and 36: It does shift to IP for a while after that, but check out the deep blue at 48: Also, this event is way long in duration: Frozen precipitation begins at hour 30 IMBY, and it is still going strong at hour 48 with much more to come. Wow! The thing that jumps out at me on those maps is the CAD signature and how far south west it goes all the way into Atlanta! Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look at that CAD signature at hour 48 on RGEM: 20s down into GA, while RDU is near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh man, RGEM 2m temps are so dang cold -- really starting to fear for folks re: ice storm. Not good. Last year, the area's that models showed to get severe icing were saved by a deeper subfreezing layer and got mainly sleet. The fringe CAD area's of GA/SC got plastered, however. I wonder if this event will be similar? The depth of the colder layer isn't very impressive over the upstate, so I lean towards mainly freezing rain, but it wasn't very impressive looking last year either and the wedge over-performed. We will see I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can speak to Atlanta in Jan 73 when it poured rain all night, and most of it stuck to everything, and it never moved off 32 the whole time. I saw around 3 inches in Buckhead, my mother saw over three 10 miles away, and I've heard of 5 inches in patches. This from over 2 inches of rain, as Larry told me years later, at the Air Port, and I believe I got a lot more than that in Buckhead. We had power lines down everywhere, like an attack. They pulled down the power poles, blew up transformers. The booming went on all night, and flashes lit up the skies. It was easy to imagine the battle of Atlanta. I walked up to Ptree St near Lenox and as far as you could see in both directions the poles were down and the lines popping. I've never seen the like, and never want to see it again. I can only speak for my immediate neighborhood for first hand accounting, but over two inches of rain, over night, can very well build up on lines, and pull poles down, and the temps don't need to be anywhere but just barely cold enough, if the conditions for icepockyclipse, lol, are just right. Trust me, and don't overlook the seemingly impossible if you are anywhere near something over an inch of ice. Get your generators now, make sure every block has at least one chainsaw, lol...it's some scary ship!! My poor mother had to feed my bed ridden grandmother by sterno stove for 10 days, and heat with gas fireplace logs, and they were in great shape compared to many. It's no place anyone wants to be, and most take the threat of major ice with a devil may care attitude...but it scared the holy ship out of me, and I'm no pantywaiste Tony I don't buy the "run off" theory either when it comes to freezing rain. I was in Durham, NC during the December 2005 ice storm and poured rain during the night and the temp was hovering around freezing. I was without power for 6 days. It looked like a war zone. I will agree that some of it runs off but it still can build up on trees and power lines even when it pours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The classical CAD being depicted is very, very impressive. This will over-perform. I wouldn't be surprised to see severe icing in Columbia proper. Look for the surface low pressure to follow that wind boundary depicted when it jumps to the coast. Chattanooga to Savannah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Decent rain event with some token ice pellets coming up for Central NC. I think we need to look at past history as much as the current models which arent trending in our favor per NAM and GEM. Careful when you say "Central NC". I will just about guarantee here in the western piedmont it will not be a "decent rain event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs north at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS -- stronger, slower, north -- 3 for 3 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Transfer begins it looks like around 42. ULL still in northern Alabama. I feel like that's a solid thing for the ones that want more sleet and snow over ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mountains do not even get an inch of precipitation this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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