HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm still a little leery of a widespread icing event. Granted, there will be a major freezing rain episode for some but I think it'll be confined to a narrow stripe along the transition line. Definitely an odd scenario setting up. Pretty much all depends on the SLP track. I think we're looking at something from la to near n-central alabama and then fading away as the coastal takes over near Savannah area. The only prob is the coastal looks to remain near the coasline, which will flood the eastern areas with warmer air aloft from the east wind/coastal front. SO we'll see, but i like a sleet/snow start in RDU, slowly changing to zr and then rain, ending with backlash. The CAD shoudl hold on long enough to cause some widespread major ice build up however (aka >.3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF has been pretty odd- way lower snows than every other model- only a 5" average for AVL. with quite a few members only 2 or 3 ". Anyway, NAM at 12 deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF for RDU gives a solid mean of 2.5 snow..most on the backend. Nice dumping of FZRA and sleet at the front, brief change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No any low track that is along the NC coast is bad for everyone RDU to the east at least.....if it was a really weak low then it wouldn't be so bad but this is a 995ish low and the warm nose is going to be brutal and huge.....I think people are going to be disappointed by how much warm air there really is....we need Wow and his east track more miller A off the coast type scenario to come to pass.....something like that would keep most of NC all snow...otherwise this will be a I77 and west for the most part event......from RDU to I77 will get a decent thump though. It would just have to hug the coast, just off of the OBX, for central NC to be sitting nicely. A-la the way the GFS and its ENS have been trending with each run. Warm nose is going to be a problem regardless, though, because it doesn't look like the CAD we need will be there anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My first call for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NE GA/Upstate SC are low confidence for me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF still look good for MWK mean 10 and a bunch around 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam at 18 digging even moreso than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lastest AFD out of GSP pumps the IP into my area. However, a closer look at the GFS shows below all the way down till hr 72 where the surface is at 1.3. That would spell more snow. I agree with your statement and we should be able to ID that transition zone well late tomorrow. When we narrow down that transition zone, you should automatically add a 25 mile northward jog to the snow/sleet line. We all know in these setups as they start to unfold the WAA at 800mb always pushes 20 to 25 miles farther north than any model is showing. I expect no different from this storm, especially considering it's strength and track. I think all of NC except the far NW mountains will get significantly more sleet than they're expecting. Hope I'm wrong though. I can't count how many storms we've had where somebody has had all models showing a snow sounding only to have pingers slamming their windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My first call for those interested. I like this...still though the .25 to .5 of ZR will be crippling, esp, with the winds that are following this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF is deff farther south and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just issued my first call map. Choose to stay on low end of guidance due to warm nose..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just issued my first call map. Choose to stay on low end of guidance due to warm nose Good call play it safe, always can up it if need be... But hope you're way to low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @30 I believe the ULL is a little more north than 18z. Much more precip exploding around it rather than out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Carolina Weather Group is live on you tube Eric Thomas form WBTV is speaking now Also a plug for the Foothill Weather network @FHWxN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 def north @34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Note that the CAD looks a little more robust this run. Higher pressures are coming down the Apps. EDIT: Early on, it seemed so, but maybe not. The surface low is a bit further north and stronger at hr 33. The ULL is over Jackson, MS and is closed off (18z had it open). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea @35 precip field is much more expansive to the northwest and the low is also pretty good ways northwest of its 18z position. Doesn't look like a good run thus far. Low up around the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Carolina Weather Group is live on you tube Eric Thomas form WBTV is speaking now Also a plug for the Foothill Weather network @FHWxN Yeah, I'm an intern there. Pretty cool organization to work for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam with minimal to no front end snow for rdu, all sleet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Note that the CAD looks a little more robust this run. Higher pressures are coming down the Apps. The surface low is a bit further north and stronger at hr 33. NAM wrapping up the storm too soon. Ain't gonna happen with that confluence overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF has been pretty odd- way lower snows than every other model- only a 5" average for AVL. with quite a few members only 2 or 3 ". Anyway, NAM at 12 deeper The 09z/15z (cant remember which)** took way too long to go neutral/negative...finally went neutral and it's almost off the SE coast. The 21z looks better, but I seriously think the SREF is useless until tomorrow. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 def north @34. Yea, I knew there was a issue when the vort was weaker in the 18z. More bad news time: Sref is stronger, but cuts totals in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definite hiccup from NAM -- primary stronger and more north -- CAD not as strong as 18z run in N.C. mountains/foothills. EDIT: 2m temps holding up, but 850s not as tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The orientation of the ULL to me it looks like it may be trying to transfer its energy can we concur on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weirdly at hour 36 it's colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Given the relationship between the SREFs and the NAM, I was afraid the NAM might trend this way tonight. Looks like around a 50-mile shift north at hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More on the SREF, spread was increased with the last run...shows the verdict is still out so take SREF probabilites for you area with a mound of salt. Low centers (red = arw, blue = nmm) New run old 15z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weirdly at hour 36 it's colder at the surface. Looks like the higher pressures from the high up north are pushing further into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow -- crazy swing from NAM this close to event -- big jog north -- 2ms hold up in Carolinas, but 850s not even close -- this would be all ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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