DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone know when the hurricane hunters are doing a dropsonde mission for this storm? I seen one was scheduled earlier today I thought. No but all the offices in the east are doing 6 hour balloon launches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty nicely visualized southern trend on GFS 12z/0z Op models. Shows the low transfer nicely, as well A little too much coastal hugging for liking Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From the Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is my first call map for this event.. Nice call...but I'd half the N of Chatham County to Durham in the blue...but I totally agree with the .5 of ZR...ugh...lights off for a few days folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is my first call map for this event.. I don't think SE VA will see 20" of snow but I know this was an NC focused map so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT has been posting the "High Resolution GFS Ensemble" snowfall maps on his FB page for a day or two now. I've noticed they've had consistently high snow totals for northern and western NC, though I do think that ZR/IP is included (I'm not certain of the website he's getting it from, though, but based on the totals I think so). Very impressive amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That includes ice and sleet. No way GSP is getting 12+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT has been posting the "High Resolution GFS Ensemble" snowfall maps on his FB page for a day or two now. I've noticed they've had consistently high snow totals for northern and western NC, though I do think that ZR/IP is included (I'm not certain of the website he's getting it from, though, but based on the totals I think so). Very impressive amounts: image1.jpeg I'd love 18-21"...seems much, but we'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Really interested to see if the models start showing more of a single low that sweeps across the deep south then rides up the coast, instead of a weakening primary moving NE, then a secondary on the coast. The trend has been more lateral movement and less northward progression of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT has been posting the "High Resolution GFS Ensemble" snowfall maps on his FB page for a day or two now. I've noticed they've had consistently high snow totals for northern and western NC, though I do think that ZR/IP is included (I'm not certain of the website he's getting it from, though, but based on the totals I think so). Very impressive amounts: image1.jpeg South and east of I-85 is more ice mixing in. North of there looks to be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Really interested to see if the models start showing more of a single low that sweeps across the deep south then rides up the coast, instead of a weakening primary moving NE, then a secondary on the coast. The trend has been more lateral movement and less northward progression of the primary. I agree...thought I saw a model showing the low moving east from Florence to Morehead City then north up the coast...wouldn't that hammer central NC on the NW side of the lp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS Bufkit soundings: Hickory = 16 inches all snow (i didn't believe it at first, unreal) Raleigh = 2 inches of sleet, .5 inch freezing rain, 2 inches of snow on backside. No snow to start on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 South and east of I-85 is more ice mixing in. North of there looks to be mostly snow. That's what I figured. How accurate do you think those totals are for areas that do stay all snow? You seem to be in favor of (or at least hoping for) a more Miller A-type system. Interested to hear your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Last Update From Brad P. For Tonight Back At It Tomorrow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBNLTW9MFo4&feature=autoshare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS Bufkit soundings: Hickory = 16 inches all snow (i didn't believe it at first, unreal) Raleigh = 2 inches of sleet, .5 inch freezing rain, 2 inches of snow on backside. No snow to start on the gfs. Very glad to hear that about Hickory thank you for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NOAA planning recon flight tomorrow afternoon. 000NOUS42 KNHC 201715REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1215 PM EST WED 20 JANUARY 2016SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2016 WSPOD NUMBER.....15-051 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A66/DROP 8 (26.5N 95.0W) / 22/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK66 C. 21/2000Z D. 10 AS SPECIFIED IN THE NWSOP E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE / 22/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE TRACK A65 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 23/0000Z. How to read: A. Track/Control Point/TimeB. Mission IdentifierC. Departure TimeD. Drops Required/Added PositionsE. Altitude/Expiration Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS Bufkit soundings: Hickory = 16 inches all snow (i didn't believe it at first, unreal) Raleigh = 2 inches of sleet, .5 inch freezing rain, 2 inches of snow on backside. No snow to start on the gfs. Both would be significant in their own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Both would be significant in their own way. Yea, i think raleigh has a real shot at .5 to .75 freezing rain accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's what I figured. How accurate do you think those totals are for areas that do stay all snow? You seem to be in favor of (or at least hoping for) a more Miller A-type system. Interested to hear your thoughts. Given the strength of the storm on all levels I'll say widespread 8-12"+ is easy to see, and higher as you go up in elevation. This isn't like the storms we've had over the past few years. This will be a memorable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea, i think raleigh has a real shot at .5 to .75 freezing rain accrual. Analogs agree with you...coupled with the wind after, whoever looses power might not get it back for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea, i think raleigh has a real shot at .5 to .75 freezing rain accrual. I agree...widespread power outages and no school for a few days, but time to read Gallathea by Lyly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mills Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Given the strength of the storm on all levels I'll say widespread 8-12"+ is easy to see, and higher as you go up in elevation. This isn't like the storms we've had over the past few years. This will be a memorable storm. Thanks for all the info. What is next big model run? The NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm still a little leery of a widespread icing event. Granted, there will be a major freezing rain episode for some but I think it'll be confined to a narrow stripe along the transition line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF 21z is out. Looked warmer and wetter for the Triad region. Over 2" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm still a little leery of a widespread icing event. Granted, there will be a major freezing rain episode for some but I think it'll be confined to a narrow stripe along the transition line. Are you thinking more areas will stay snow (such as the I-85 corridor), or that we'll see more sleet rather than freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF 21z is out. Looked warmer and wetter for the Triad region. Over 2" of precip. I looked at the MSLP track/spread and it looked like some members took the LP up into TN. A bit strange. I think we toss unless something else goes that way this evening. The NMB members showed a solid hit, but the NMM members had very little snow. Mean QPF was 2.2"+, though. Wow. I want to say the SREFs tend to run a little warm, though. Or maybe that's just a weenie bias. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree...thought I saw a model showing the low moving east from Florence to Morehead City then north up the coast...wouldn't that hammer central NC on the NW side of the lp? No any low track that is along the NC coast is bad for everyone RDU to the east at least.....if it was a really weak low then it wouldn't be so bad but this is a 995ish low and the warm nose is going to be brutal and huge.....I think people are going to be disappointed by how much warm air there really is....we need Wow and his east track more miller A off the coast type scenario to come to pass.....something like that would keep most of NC all snow...otherwise this will be a I77 and west for the most part event......from RDU to I77 will get a decent thump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This looks very good to me. Nice job! Love you captured the nuances of local mountain tops. Thanks HT and everyone. I think my total in WNC might be too low, especially if that deformation band hits just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Given the strength of the storm on all levels I'll say widespread 8-12"+ is easy to see, and higher as you go up in elevation. This isn't like the storms we've had over the past few years. This will be a memorable storm. Thanks for your input! I agree- those who are able to stay mostly snow are about to see a very impressive system. Looking forward to seeing it play out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lastest AFD out of GSP pumps the IP into my area. However, a closer look at the GFS shows below all the way down till hr 72 where the surface is at 1.3. That would spell more snow. I agree with your statement and we should be able to ID that transition zone well late tomorrow. I'm still a little leery of a widespread icing event. Granted, there will be a major freezing rain episode for some but I think it'll be confined to a narrow stripe along the transition line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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