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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Usually pretty well -- this continues the trend of the 12z NAM -- not nearly as aggressive with 2m cold to and through I-85 corridor. Something to watch.

the maps on stormvista do not show the 2M temps getting into SC.  Brings the freezing line all the way down to the state line by h39 and then just parks it there..I'm out to h48 and still a no go.  How does the NAM generally handle CAD?

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Thanks Grit.  Did it move south?  Almost looks like it didn't transfer, just moved east. 

I believe it held with 00z run...difference is that the Euro has the sfc low right on the Outer Banks.  UKMet has it just off the NC coast, then moves it NE from there.  Overall, it looks a hair south of the Euro at sfc and 500mb

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So, when looking at the SREF plumes for Hickory, there are a few crazy outliers showing 30 or so inches.  After removing the top four amounts, all above 15 inches, and the bottom two amounts, each below 2 inches, I arrive at a solid six inches for the mean snowfall at KHKY.  I think that's a decent forecast for the area at this point in time.  I would hesitate to forecast more than 6 inches of snowfall for Hickory, when the potential for mixing with ice is so real.  We are going to be riding a razor's edge with a very tight gradient from SE to NW, in my opinion.

 

 

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NWS Raleigh pulled the trigger: Winter Storm Watch for all but most southern areas.

 

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National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
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Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
 

2 products issued by NWS for: Lillington NC
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Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC344 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY THISEVENING THEN A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT....A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING AQUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH... ENOUGHTO MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTOTHE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY EVENING... ANDLAST THROUGH SATURDAY.NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>077-083-084-210900-/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.160122T0500Z-160123T2300Z/GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM344 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO SEE  SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH  SATURDAY. LOCATIONS MOST IMPACTED WILL INCLUDE ALBEMARLE...  WADESBORO... NORTHEAST THROUGH SANFORD AND THE TRIANGLE AREA...  TO HENDERSON... WARRENTON... AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.* HAZARD TYPES...A DANGEROUS WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA... FROM LATE THURSDAY  EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS MOSTLY  SNOW AND SLEET... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE  SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO  RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A BAND FROM ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST  THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO ROANOKE RAPIDS... WITH AMOUNTS  UNDER AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...  CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A HALF  AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM ALBEMARLE  THROUGH THE TRIANGLE TO WARRENTON.* TIMING...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A  TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN  ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME  PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND  LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* WINDS...FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 THURSDAY  NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 NORTHWEST RANGING TO  AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD FROM AROUND 30  TO THE MID 30S FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC1027 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211000-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-1027 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THECAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACKNORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE A WINTERSTORM APPEARS PROBABLE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINSREGARDING DETAILS ON TIMING...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AMOUNT...ANDPOSSIBLE IMPACTS. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TOPAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
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IMO the EURO has been consistent enough in its forecast for north Georgia to warrant a winter storm watch from Atlanta northward for overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  The reason I don't see the watch being posted until at least tomorrow morning is because this storm is landing on a weekend rather than a school night.  Therefore they have a little more of waiting period to sling out the watches/warnings.  Now if this was coming on a school night/work morning then watches would be going up right now for north Georgia from Atlanta northward.  Again...just my opinion....

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