DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 man so much colder, wants to keep rdu all snow thru 45, @51 its a mix. slp looks to have reformed over sav @51! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 850s are really jumping north to south on the NAM over NC, but overall it's colder than previous runs through hour 45. All snow along and to the north of a Charlotte to RDU line roughly. 850 holds at hour 48. Would be around .5 qpf around RDU -- all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 man is it juicy.....right at around 2" of liquid equiv from the NW corner of SC to Boone by h48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 By hour 54 it's mostly freezing rain from RDU west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Usually pretty well -- this continues the trend of the 12z NAM -- not nearly as aggressive with 2m cold to and through I-85 corridor. Something to watch. the maps on stormvista do not show the 2M temps getting into SC. Brings the freezing line all the way down to the state line by h39 and then just parks it there..I'm out to h48 and still a no go. How does the NAM generally handle CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks Grit. Did it move south? Almost looks like it didn't transfer, just moved east. I believe it held with 00z run...difference is that the Euro has the sfc low right on the Outer Banks. UKMet has it just off the NC coast, then moves it NE from there. Overall, it looks a hair south of the Euro at sfc and 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 slp maybe a smidge e off myrtle at 57. snow wnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 By hour 54 it's mostly freezing rain from RDU west. With near 1.5 qpf!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Either way the NAM is a serious winter storm for 2/3 of NC, major league ice on top of heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 By hour 54 it's mostly freezing rain from RDU west. No ZR for NC Mtns and NW Piedmont..Not a bad run for sure.. very heavy amounts of precip.. Also looks good up my way in Danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yesssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A whopping 16-18" across much of the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We got NAM'd by 12km version. 4km is less impressive, but still significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 man is it juicy.....right at around 2" of liquid equiv from the NW corner of SC to Boone by h48 Jeez...that would be a ton of ice for here. Catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run also puts DC on the northern edge of the heavy amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 rdu back to snow by 66 as the lp pulls n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Between 57-60 another 2-3" of what looks like snow falls in the Triad... going to be big time totals from this run for a lot of areas as far as QPF goes. I would say automatically cut those totals in half just because it's the NAM, but it has some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh Charlotte.... and GSP. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT with his first call has 4-8" for Charlotte to RDU with huger amounts north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jeez...that would be a ton of ice for here. Catastrophic. have to wait and see but don't think temps support much ice this go round. EDIT....wow spoke to soon.....just saw the graphic GSO_WX posted above.....nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh Charlotte.... and GSP. Wow. One word "Montreal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT with his first call has 4-8" for Charlotte to RDU with huger amounts north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RAH just put out the Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, when looking at the SREF plumes for Hickory, there are a few crazy outliers showing 30 or so inches. After removing the top four amounts, all above 15 inches, and the bottom two amounts, each below 2 inches, I arrive at a solid six inches for the mean snowfall at KHKY. I think that's a decent forecast for the area at this point in time. I would hesitate to forecast more than 6 inches of snowfall for Hickory, when the potential for mixing with ice is so real. We are going to be riding a razor's edge with a very tight gradient from SE to NW, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GSP just issued a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS Raleigh pulled the trigger: Winter Storm Watch for all but most southern areas. weather.gov National Weather ServiceWatches, Warnings & Advisories Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 2 products issued by NWS for: Lillington NC Share | Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC344 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY THISEVENING THEN A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT....A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING AQUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH... ENOUGHTO MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTOTHE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY EVENING... ANDLAST THROUGH SATURDAY.NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>077-083-084-210900-/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.160122T0500Z-160123T2300Z/GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM344 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCATIONS MOST IMPACTED WILL INCLUDE ALBEMARLE... WADESBORO... NORTHEAST THROUGH SANFORD AND THE TRIANGLE AREA... TO HENDERSON... WARRENTON... AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.* HAZARD TYPES...A DANGEROUS WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA... FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A BAND FROM ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO ROANOKE RAPIDS... WITH AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM ALBEMARLE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE TO WARRENTON.* TIMING...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* WINDS...FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 NORTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$ Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC1027 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211000-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-1027 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THECAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACKNORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE A WINTERSTORM APPEARS PROBABLE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINSREGARDING DETAILS ON TIMING...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AMOUNT...ANDPOSSIBLE IMPACTS. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TOPAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 IMO the EURO has been consistent enough in its forecast for north Georgia to warrant a winter storm watch from Atlanta northward for overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The reason I don't see the watch being posted until at least tomorrow morning is because this storm is landing on a weekend rather than a school night. Therefore they have a little more of waiting period to sling out the watches/warnings. Now if this was coming on a school night/work morning then watches would be going up right now for north Georgia from Atlanta northward. Again...just my opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Raging snowstorm N of I-85 thru 45 hrsEven looks like GSP starts as snow! The wedge is stout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good to see DT went south with his snow map, he usually does pretty decently in NC contrary to popular belief. Not a bad map for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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