Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @27 surface low at the southern LA/TX boarder. 1 MB stronger and further south than the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Actually 2" here 3" just to the west. Thing is, I will be going to Asheville tomorrow for the event..... Nice man, glad you will be joining the party! I will be camped out near UNCA. 10" seems very possible with this system.. Hope it turns out to be a worthwhile chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 KGSP Afternoon Discussion is Out. 266FXUS62 KGSP 202006AFDGSPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC306 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGHSATURDAY....SYNOPSIS...A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ANDNORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLSPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY...BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 235 PM EST...THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING BAND IS MOVINGEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRAVERSE THEPIEDMONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE IMPROVED PRECIPITATION RATESHAVE WET BULBED SOUNDINGS BACK DOWN TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WITHSOME SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES. RATES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSSTHE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 5 PM...WHILE PICKING UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONTDURING THAT TIME. THE CURRENT SETUP OF THERMAL PROFILES...AND SFCTEMPS RANGING FROM BELOW FREEZING IN NW SECTIONS TO MID TO UPPER 30SSOUTHEAST...MAKES THE CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS APPEAR WELL PLACED. NOFURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING EVENT IS EXPECTED. STILLANTICIPATE MID LEVEL DRYING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLYEVENING AND TRANSITION ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERLYFLOW TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LIGHT ICEACCUMULATIONS WOULD IMPACT MAINLY WRN MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.OTHERWISE...THE PHASING H5 VORT LOBE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGIONAFTER 00Z. BROAD BUT FLAT H5 RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGHTHU AS HEIGHTS FALL SHARPLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE TX GULF COAST.MEANWHILE...SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THEMIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC TO REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE REGIONTHROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FROMTHE SOUTH BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVELUPGLIDE BEGINS ON THE BACKING SRLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMINTO THE 40S MOST AREAS ON THU TO PERMIT MELTING OF ANY LIGHT ACCUMSFROM TODAY/S EVENT.&&.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOODAGREEMENT...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT DETAILS IN THISUPCOMING MAJOR STORM.THE STORM STILL LOOKS MILLER-B-LIKE...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVERTHE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN A SECONDARY LOW WILLBECOME DOMINANT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOWWILL DEEPEN AS A STRONG NOR/EASTER ON SATURDAY...AND LIFT OUT THESEA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FROM ABOUT 12Z FRIDAYTO 12Z SATURDAY...AS A NEUTRAL-TILTED SLOW-MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOWCROSSES THE AREA. AS THE LOW CROSSES...A SELY LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTSWILL PRODUCE STRONG LLVL LIFT ATOP A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD)WEDGE.THE PROFILES AND THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS ALL SHOW A SIMILAR THEME...WITHCAD STRENGTHENING AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IUSED A 2:1 BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PROFILES AND A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FORTHE WX GRIDS AND ESTABLISH THE P-TYPE EVOLUTION. THIS RESULTS INMOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET ACRS MOST OF THE MTNS WITHIN THE WEDGE...ANDACRS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARD THEEDGES OF THE WEDGE IS WHERE P-TYPES GET COMPLICATED. OVERALL...FCSTSNDGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS THEPIEDMONT. BLENDING IN THE RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAYNIGHT...I GET A SWATH OF ICE ACRS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE AND ALONGI-85 TOWARD THE TRIAD. USING THE WPC QPF AND STICKING CLOSE TO THEIRSNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...I GET STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 8-12 INCHES ACRS THEMTNS...TAPERING OFF AS USE GO SOUTH AND EAST. FOR ICE...THE CONCERNIS FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH (0.25-0.50") OF ACCUMS FOR PORTIONS OFTHE PIEDMONT. THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH NEW GUIDANCETONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT AWINTER STORM WATCH. THE MTN SECTION OF THE WATCH IS FOR MOSTLY SNOWAND SLEET AND ALSO ENCOMPASSES THE WRAP-AROUND/NWFS ACCUMS SATURDAYNIGHT. THE PIEDMONT SECTION WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN ANDWINTRY MIX...AND WILL END A LITTLE EARLIER (00Z SUNDAY).&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 nam def south @32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Darn close to the GOM there at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Surface low in southern LA at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Boy was i wrong lol Dangggggg. Trough well into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z NAM isnt going to dig as much. Seems you shouldn't be doing the PBP. Thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snippet from KCAE 3PM discussion: THIS LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT WITH LIQUIDACCUMULATIONS OF A 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAINACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE SOMELIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH THISFORECAST ISSUANCE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND ALLOWLATER SHIFTS TO VIEW NEW DATA AND ISSUE A WATCH FORLANCASTER/CHESTERFIELD IF NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Getting ready to get Nam'ed and if thats not good enough the flakes have broke containment. Should be snowing in queen city and triad just in time for rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Going to be pretty wild if the 18z models take another shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 KGSP Afternoon Discussion is Out. 266 FXUS62 KGSP 202006 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 306 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EST...THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING BAND IS MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE IMPROVED PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE WET BULBED SOUNDINGS BACK DOWN TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES. RATES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 5 PM...WHILE PICKING UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THAT TIME. THE CURRENT SETUP OF THERMAL PROFILES...AND SFC TEMPS RANGING FROM BELOW FREEZING IN NW SECTIONS TO MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST...MAKES THE CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS APPEAR WELL PLACED. NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING EVENT IS EXPECTED. STILL ANTICIPATE MID LEVEL DRYING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND TRANSITION ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD IMPACT MAINLY WRN MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...THE PHASING H5 VORT LOBE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z. BROAD BUT FLAT H5 RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU AS HEIGHTS FALL SHARPLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE TX GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC TO REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE BEGINS ON THE BACKING SRLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS ON THU TO PERMIT MELTING OF ANY LIGHT ACCUMS FROM TODAY/S EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT DETAILS IN THIS UPCOMING MAJOR STORM. THE STORM STILL LOOKS MILLER-B-LIKE...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN A SECONDARY LOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS A STRONG NOR/EASTER ON SATURDAY...AND LIFT OUT THE SEA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FROM ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY...AS A NEUTRAL-TILTED SLOW-MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA. AS THE LOW CROSSES...A SELY LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL PRODUCE STRONG LLVL LIFT ATOP A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) WEDGE. THE PROFILES AND THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS ALL SHOW A SIMILAR THEME...WITH CAD STRENGTHENING AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. I USED A 2:1 BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PROFILES AND A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR THE WX GRIDS AND ESTABLISH THE P-TYPE EVOLUTION. THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET ACRS MOST OF THE MTNS WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND ACRS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE IS WHERE P-TYPES GET COMPLICATED. OVERALL...FCST SNDGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS THE PIEDMONT. BLENDING IN THE RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...I GET A SWATH OF ICE ACRS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE AND ALONG I-85 TOWARD THE TRIAD. USING THE WPC QPF AND STICKING CLOSE TO THEIR SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...I GET STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 8-12 INCHES ACRS THE MTNS...TAPERING OFF AS USE GO SOUTH AND EAST. FOR ICE...THE CONCERN IS FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH (0.25-0.50") OF ACCUMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH NEW GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH. THE MTN SECTION OF THE WATCH IS FOR MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET AND ALSO ENCOMPASSES THE WRAP-AROUND/NWFS ACCUMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT SECTION WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX...AND WILL END A LITTLE EARLIER (00Z SUNDAY). && Man, LOVE the GFS/NAM around here huh? No Euro blend at all or a mention. I'd love to get a rationale as to why? Also, I'm curious why the piedmont precip would end earlier in the piedmont than the mountains? NW flow snows? You'd think the further east you are, the more you'd be under the western edge of the storm off the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems you shouldn't be doing the PBP. Thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It was a good call at first. The vort downstream was dramatically less. I still dont see how it deepens, but apparently it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh my -- surface low way south at 36. 850 freezing line already encompassing all of mountains and foothills of NC. EE rule about to go into effect BIG TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any reason why calls I'm reading in the media/NWS aren't matching model results for RDU I'm reading here...? Models are tools used to help make forecasts. The weather doesn't always match what a model depicts two days prior. Forecasters usually do not go for predicting extremes far in advanced. This question gets asked every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 man it just shoots moisture out ahead at 36, snowy or maybe a mix at rdu. frz line down to sc border. low is further s than 12z. bodes very well for the 18z suite i would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z UKMet Thanks Grit. Did it move south? Almost looks like it didn't transfer, just moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 at 39, snow breaking out over W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Loving that look, it should bomb out after the transfer say around SAV (I hope). I say Wow or Burrell bring the mojo for a new thread after the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM wants to get that low into the GOM. You can see the energy at the base of the trough pulling it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm just north of Raleigh, but Wakefield VA office just issued WSW for its area. Have a place at the lake on NC/VA border so o get notifications for there on my phone. NCZ012-VAZ084-086>090-092-210430- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T1200Z/ NORTHAMPTON NC-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY- JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD... WILLIAMSBURG...FRANKLIN 317 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * AREAS AFFECTED: INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS: SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 INCHES OR GREATER SNOW. UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN WESTERN TIDEWATER AREAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND FAR INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. * TEMPERATURES: RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. * WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY...BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. * TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANGE BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED FRIDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM really diving the ULL down south.. kinda looks like the old NAVGEM run from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Raging snowstorm N of I-85 thru 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is really bringing the QPF and heavy snow for WNC mtns and NW piedmont.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 at 39 looks like it's trying to move NE (how are you guys so far ahead of me?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the maps on stormvista do not show the 2M temps getting into SC. Brings the freezing line all the way down to the state line by h39 and then just parks it there..I'm out to h48 and still a no go. How does the NAM generally handle CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 850s are really jumping north to south on the NAM over NC, but overall it's colder than previous runs through hour 45. All snow along and to the north of a Charlotte to RDU line roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Much colder aloft at hr 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 By hour 48 snow is confined to mountains and extreme northern Piedmont, per 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.