WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just to clear this up, Euro 0.5 (WMO-essential) is fine (the 24 hour interval maps that are found on most model sites)...any shorter interval maps or mesoscale data (snow, etc) is not ok. From WxBell: Thanks Jon, note can be found here, bottom right: http://models.weatherbell.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 the fact that the 00z euro para shows a big hit for nc is noteworthy, and should be enough to keep an eye on the trends as the sw comes ashore tomorrow as it has the highest verification scores i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on outCMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on outI disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say I'm not sure why everyone wants to discontinue this system south and east of the mountains. I just don't get it. The past several looks are close enough to keep an eye on. Trends are forever in our favor (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here. gfs op did increase the backside snow for n nc. euro para just sends back a lot more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say You aren't kidding about the CMC Ensembles. I don't think they're usually considered to be very good, but this is a sizable shift south from yesterday. The max area is now south of NOVA. Anyways, more dig on the 00z Euro and maybe a bit slower so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here. I see what you are saying and, if the EURO comes South then I would agree, but this is a beta version and they (beta's) are known to have errors which are then corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 gfs op did increase the backside snow for n nc. euro para just sends back a lot more qpf.I can't tell you how many times I've been burned on that backside crap. I hope no one has to put all there stock into the backside. Let's hope for stronger cad more suppressed track. Rooting for you guys down in NC to get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It looks like a 3 day event! I'm sure alot of it will be rain Thursday and maybe the wedge builds in, and maybe some wraparound on Sat, but if we are waiting on that to save us, we are in trouble! Starting as rain and waiting on a changeover to produce wintry weather, is like pulling hens teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have a question. What is the Kuchera Ratio Snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I see what you are saying and, if the EURO comes South then I would agree, but this is a beta version and they (beta's) are known to have errors which are then correctedCorrect, BUT this is the new Euro come March and all the kinks are pretty wrung out of it. From what I've heard it's actually had some high verification scores so that is why my argument I feel is just. But anyhow the EURO is running lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have a question. What is the Kucera Ratio Snowfall?It's an algorithm that attempts to cut sleet and zr out of typical snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro really south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EURO looks stronger and coming through Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like it may follow the PARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EURO sharper dig at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro really southFollowing the para, sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is south at this point. It tried to cut but stayed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is siginificantly colder at RDU 12z thursday vs 00z. -4 850's aloft. that's a good sign to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro doesn't look bad. 1032 high over the lakes and lots of moisture incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro parallel should not be ignored. Ryan Maue recently (Jan 2nd) posted verification scores at 500 mb for gfs, euro, and euro parallel. Euro parallel was (just a tad) higher. It's completely in the realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is siginificantly colder at RDU 12z thursday vs 00z. -4 850's aloft. that's a good sign to me. Yea, that high is doing some work. Euro is probably not seeing the depth of the cold air either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is a crush job for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major storm for NC on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 @111 BOOM! She's bombing out and cold air is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro parallel should not be ignored. Ryan Maue recently (Jan 2nd) posted verification scores at 500 mb for gfs, euro, and euro parallel. Euro parallel was (just a tad) higher. It's completely in the realm of possibility EXACTLY! Thank you case in point made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Much colder at the surface. All-frozen for N NC. Lord have mercy at this QPF... starts out as snow then we get other frozen and a ton of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This EURO run is going to make NC happy. Way WAY south.... CAD setup deep into NC precip moving in hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This EURO run is going to make NC happy. Way WAY south.... CAD setup deep into NC precip moving in hr 102 Yep this thing is a monster on the Euro. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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