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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on out

CMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say
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I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on out

I disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here.
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CMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say

I'm not sure why everyone wants to discontinue this system south and east of the mountains. I just don't get it. The past several looks are close enough to keep an eye on. Trends are forever in our favor (so far).

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I disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here.

gfs op did increase the backside snow for n nc.  euro para just sends back a lot more qpf.

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CMC ensembles were south, 12z GFS ensembles were south, from previous runs , let's see what Euro and it ensembles say

 

You aren't kidding about the CMC Ensembles.  I don't think they're usually considered to be very good, but this is a sizable shift south from yesterday.  The max area is now south of NOVA.

 

IBDyu39.png

 

Anyways, more dig on the 00z Euro and maybe a bit slower so far.

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I disagree to a degree. The para is obviously keying on a piece of energy and thus not phasing as drastically comparing it to the other model suites. I think that this absolutely is still on the table due to the amount of time we are still away from precip making it here.

I see what you are saying and, if the EURO comes South then I would agree, but this is a beta version and they (beta's) are known to have errors which are then corrected

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gfs op did increase the backside snow for n nc. euro para just sends back a lot more qpf.

I can't tell you how many times I've been burned on that backside crap. I hope no one has to put all there stock into the backside. Let's hope for stronger cad more suppressed track. Rooting for you guys down in NC to get in on the fun.
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I see what you are saying and, if the EURO comes South then I would agree, but this is a beta version and they (beta's) are known to have errors which are then corrected

Correct, BUT this is the new Euro come March and all the kinks are pretty wrung out of it. From what I've heard it's actually had some high verification scores so that is why my argument I feel is just. But anyhow the EURO is running lol.
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