Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion

[deltadog03]

Actually 2" here 3" just to the west. Thing is, I will be going to Asheville tomorrow for the event.....

I don't blame you 1 bit...

[mrdaddyman]

I heard the UKMET updated.  Does anyone have the details???

 

It did update but the frames from hours 12 to 72 are missing the data for some reason.

[franklin NCwx]

I heard the UKMET updated. Does anyone have the details???

the only panels I can see is hour 6 and 96.

[Tacoma]

I'm reading a few things that could make this storm on Friday and Saturday Historic is that it's a slow moving storm as well as a huge storm and if you get under the deformation zone, this could be of Historic makings.

[calculus1]

Brad P.'s first call map is included in this Vlog:

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1010537112352078

[burrel2]

Big shift to a quicker transfer on the latest SREF mean. Everything is a little farther south as well.

[nchighcountrywx]

Specific ECMWF Output for Boone, Hickory and Charlotte

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TNB LAT= 36.20 LON= -81.65 ELE= 3146

12Z JAN20

2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC TOTAL FROZN TOTAL

MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD

(F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)

WED 12Z 20-JAN 22.0 -2.8 20001 0.00 0.00 100

WED 15Z 20-JAN 26.2 13.7 20003 0.03 0.03 100

WED 18Z 20-JAN 33.9 21.8 34.2 18.1 19005 0.05 0.05 76

WED 21Z 20-JAN 30.0 21.4 22004 0.11 0.11 98

THU 00Z 21-JAN 35.0 27.7 28.2 23.5 26004 0.14 0.14 99

THU 03Z 21-JAN 27.5 23.6 28004 0.15 0.15 93

THU 06Z 21-JAN 28.7 26.8 27.7 24.2 28004 0.15 0.15 94

THU 09Z 21-JAN 27.2 24.2 30003 0.16 0.16 96

THU 12Z 21-JAN 28.0 25.9 26.2 22.9 34003 0.16 0.16 100

THU 15Z 21-JAN 31.7 20.3 33001 0.16 0.16 68

THU 18Z 21-JAN 40.6 26.0 40.9 18.5 17002 0.16 0.16 3

THU 21Z 21-JAN 39.9 21.3 15003 0.16 0.16 99

FRI 00Z 22-JAN 42.2 29.2 29.0 23.4 12003 0.16 0.16 100

FRI 03Z 22-JAN 29.2 23.7 12003 0.16 0.16 100

FRI 06Z 22-JAN 30.1 27.7 28.3 23.2 10003 0.16 0.16 100

FRI 09Z 22-JAN 27.3 22.3 11004 0.19 0.18 100

FRI 12Z 22-JAN 28.5 25.7 25.7 22.8 09005 0.34 0.33 100

FRI 15Z 22-JAN 24.1 21.1 09006 0.55 0.55 100

FRI 18Z 22-JAN 25.7 22.4 22.4 18.9 09008 0.74 0.74 100

FRI 21Z 22-JAN 22.6 18.7 08008 0.85 0.84 94

SAT 00Z 23-JAN 23.3 21.7 23.3 20.1 06009 1.00 1.00 99

SAT 03Z 23-JAN 25.2 22.2 04007 1.19 1.17 100

SAT 06Z 23-JAN 25.9 23.0 25.0 22.0 03007 1.35 1.34 98

SAT 09Z 23-JAN 24.6 20.7 36007 1.48 1.46 99

SAT 12Z 23-JAN 26.0 23.7 24.7 20.1 34007 1.56 1.54 100

SAT 15Z 23-JAN 24.5 18.0 32009 1.62 1.61 100

SAT 18Z 23-JAN 25.1 24.0 24.9 15.7 32011 1.73 1.71 100

SAT 21Z 23-JAN 23.5 15.2 32012 1.75 1.74 100

SUN 00Z 24-JAN 25.2 20.3 20.2 13.9 33013 1.79 1.78 95

SUN 03Z 24-JAN 20.0 13.6 33012 1.79 1.78 99

SUN 06Z 24-JAN 20.4 19.3 19.5 12.5 32009 1.80 1.78 82

SUN 09Z 24-JAN 16.8 10.4 32009 1.80 1.78 4

SUN 12Z 24-JAN 19.7 13.6 14.1 7.4 30005 1.80 1.78 12

SUN 15Z 24-JAN 22.8 9.2 31005 1.80 1.78 2

SUN 18Z 24-JAN 35.5 11.0 35.6 12.9 29002 1.80 1.78 4

SUN 21Z 24-JAN 36.1 19.0 22001 1.80 1.78 2

MON 00Z 25-JAN 38.4 26.7 27.3 19.2 24001 1.80 1.78 12

MON 03Z 25-JAN 24.6 12.9 23001 1.80 1.78 99

MON 06Z 25-JAN 30.2 21.4 24.1 13.8 23002 1.80 1.78 100

MON 09Z 25-JAN 22.9 13.5 24002 1.80 1.78 98

MON 12Z 25-JAN 24.9 20.8 22.3 12.0 22001 1.80 1.78 96

MON 15Z 25-JAN 27.6 15.7 17003 1.80 1.78 88

MON 18Z 25-JAN 41.3 20.6 41.4 23.7 20004 1.80 1.78 87

MON 21Z 25-JAN 40.4 28.8 20005 1.80 1.78 3

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 42.6 35.6 36.1 31.0 21005 1.80 1.78 66

TUE 03Z 26-JAN 37.9 34.8 23006 1.80 1.78 76

TUE 06Z 26-JAN 38.4 35.7 37.8 36.1 25006 1.81 1.78 79

TUE 09Z 26-JAN 35.8 34.3 27007 1.84 1.79 99

TUE 12Z 26-JAN 38.8 32.2 32.4 28.7 28008 1.88 1.79 99

TUE 18Z 26-JAN 34.3 31.3 34.0 24.3 28009 1.88 1.80 66

WED 00Z 27-JAN 34.1 25.2 25.1 20.8 29008 1.88 1.80 69

WED 06Z 27-JAN 25.1 21.7 21.7 16.4 30009 1.89 1.81 85

WED 12Z 27-JAN 22.8 21.0 21.9 17.5 28007 1.90 1.81 89

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HKY LAT= 35.73 LON= -81.38 ELE= 1188

12Z JAN20

2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC TOTAL FROZN TOTAL

MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD

(F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)

WED 12Z 20-JAN 24.4 2.0 15001 0.00 0.00 100

WED 15Z 20-JAN 26.8 9.7 20003 0.02 0.02 99

WED 18Z 20-JAN 34.1 24.0 34.5 12.8 21006 0.02 0.02 63

WED 21Z 20-JAN 33.3 18.8 22006 0.04 0.04 100

THU 00Z 21-JAN 36.3 30.4 30.5 22.5 21005 0.05 0.05 87

THU 03Z 21-JAN 29.7 24.5 23004 0.05 0.05 82

THU 06Z 21-JAN 30.8 28.5 29.1 25.5 24003 0.05 0.05 57

THU 09Z 21-JAN 27.9 25.2 30001 0.05 0.05 81

THU 12Z 21-JAN 29.4 26.9 28.3 25.3 02003 0.05 0.05 91

THU 15Z 21-JAN 36.4 25.2 06003 0.05 0.05 46

THU 18Z 21-JAN 43.1 28.1 43.3 24.0 13002 0.05 0.05 4

THU 21Z 21-JAN 42.8 26.5 14003 0.05 0.05 99

FRI 00Z 22-JAN 44.3 33.0 33.0 27.0 11004 0.05 0.05 100

FRI 03Z 22-JAN 32.6 25.6 08003 0.05 0.05 100

FRI 06Z 22-JAN 33.5 30.8 30.8 24.0 06004 0.05 0.05 100

FRI 09Z 22-JAN 29.8 25.0 04004 0.12 0.12 100

FRI 12Z 22-JAN 30.9 28.4 28.3 25.8 05006 0.35 0.36 100

FRI 15Z 22-JAN 26.8 23.8 06008 0.58 0.58 100

FRI 18Z 22-JAN 28.3 25.9 26.0 22.6 05009 0.77 0.74 100

FRI 21Z 22-JAN 25.9 22.9 04011 0.91 0.83 100

SAT 00Z 23-JAN 26.3 25.4 26.1 23.2 03012 1.13 0.95 100

SAT 03Z 23-JAN 27.5 24.4 03010 1.31 1.06 100

SAT 06Z 23-JAN 28.5 26.1 28.5 24.6 03011 1.46 1.20 100

SAT 09Z 23-JAN 28.7 24.3 01009 1.55 1.30 99

SAT 12Z 23-JAN 29.8 28.4 29.8 24.5 35008 1.61 1.35 98

SAT 15Z 23-JAN 31.9 23.4 33007 1.63 1.38 100

SAT 18Z 23-JAN 33.1 29.6 32.9 21.5 32008 1.66 1.41 100

SAT 21Z 23-JAN 31.9 20.3 32010 1.66 1.41 99

SUN 00Z 24-JAN 33.4 27.5 27.4 17.5 33012 1.67 1.42 48

SUN 03Z 24-JAN 25.6 16.5 33010 1.67 1.42 70

SUN 06Z 24-JAN 27.5 24.5 24.6 16.7 34008 1.67 1.42 82

SUN 09Z 24-JAN 22.3 14.7 32006 1.67 1.42 13

SUN 12Z 24-JAN 24.7 17.8 18.9 11.3 29004 1.67 1.42 0

SUN 15Z 24-JAN 27.4 14.7 32003 1.67 1.42 0

SUN 18Z 24-JAN 39.7 16.1 38.3 22.8 23001 1.67 1.42 0

SUN 21Z 24-JAN 37.7 26.8 20003 1.67 1.42 7

MON 00Z 25-JAN 40.9 30.8 31.4 24.5 22004 1.67 1.42 18

MON 03Z 25-JAN 28.6 22.6 24003 1.67 1.42 42

MON 06Z 25-JAN 32.6 26.3 27.4 21.0 25004 1.67 1.42 100

MON 09Z 25-JAN 25.7 20.0 24004 1.67 1.42 97

MON 12Z 25-JAN 27.8 23.9 25.0 20.6 22004 1.67 1.42 96

MON 15Z 25-JAN 30.6 23.9 20004 1.67 1.42 86

MON 18Z 25-JAN 41.4 24.3 41.7 29.6 21007 1.67 1.42 82

MON 21Z 25-JAN 42.5 32.0 21008 1.67 1.42 11

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 43.1 38.8 39.1 33.6 22007 1.67 1.42 76

TUE 03Z 26-JAN 39.1 35.2 22007 1.67 1.42 87

TUE 06Z 26-JAN 39.8 38.4 39.5 37.8 22007 1.67 1.42 83

TUE 09Z 26-JAN 40.6 39.5 24006 1.67 1.42 99

TUE 12Z 26-JAN 40.9 37.7 37.9 34.0 28005 1.67 1.42 81

TUE 18Z 26-JAN 43.0 36.9 42.6 28.8 27005 1.67 1.42 25

WED 00Z 27-JAN 43.3 32.1 31.8 24.8 31006 1.67 1.42 28

WED 06Z 27-JAN 31.8 25.7 25.7 18.4 31006 1.67 1.42 49

WED 12Z 27-JAN 27.6 21.5 22.3 15.9 27005 1.67 1.42 51

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CLT LAT= 35.22 LON= -80.93 ELE= 768

12Z JAN20

2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC TOTAL FROZN TOTAL

MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD

(F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)

WED 12Z 20-JAN 26.5 7.0 09001 0.00 0.00 99

WED 15Z 20-JAN 29.8 10.1 20002 0.00 0.00 100

WED 18Z 20-JAN 36.8 25.7 37.1 14.2 21006 0.01 0.01 29

WED 21Z 20-JAN 36.8 20.3 22006 0.01 0.01 100

THU 00Z 21-JAN 39.4 32.9 32.9 22.6 22006 0.02 0.02 77

THU 03Z 21-JAN 31.3 25.6 24006 0.02 0.02 51

THU 06Z 21-JAN 32.9 30.7 31.0 27.3 26005 0.02 0.02 36

THU 09Z 21-JAN 27.5 25.7 29004 0.02 0.02 78

THU 12Z 21-JAN 31.0 26.8 29.3 27.3 03002 0.02 0.02 92

THU 15Z 21-JAN 37.1 28.6 06004 0.02 0.02 29

THU 18Z 21-JAN 43.4 27.5 43.6 28.4 07003 0.02 0.02 12

THU 21Z 21-JAN 43.9 30.8 09003 0.02 0.02 100

FRI 00Z 22-JAN 44.7 35.7 36.3 29.7 10004 0.02 0.02 100

FRI 03Z 22-JAN 34.9 28.4 09005 0.02 0.02 100

FRI 06Z 22-JAN 36.6 33.7 33.6 26.8 09005 0.02 0.02 100

FRI 09Z 22-JAN 31.8 29.5 07007 0.16 0.08 100

FRI 12Z 22-JAN 33.6 30.1 30.0 28.1 06008 0.39 0.24 100

FRI 15Z 22-JAN 28.4 25.9 07009 0.56 0.32 100

FRI 18Z 22-JAN 30.0 28.0 28.3 25.8 06011 0.70 0.37 100

FRI 21Z 22-JAN 29.1 27.1 05012 0.84 0.38 100

SAT 00Z 23-JAN 29.5 28.2 29.5 27.7 05014 1.13 0.38 100

SAT 03Z 23-JAN 29.7 27.5 02012 1.37 0.41 100

SAT 06Z 23-JAN 30.0 28.8 28.9 26.0 02012 1.41 0.43 100

SAT 09Z 23-JAN 28.5 25.1 01011 1.44 0.46 100

SAT 12Z 23-JAN 29.3 28.2 29.3 25.1 35010 1.48 0.50 100

SAT 15Z 23-JAN 32.0 27.2 33007 1.49 0.51 98

SAT 18Z 23-JAN 35.5 29.3 35.5 27.2 32008 1.52 0.54 99

SAT 21Z 23-JAN 35.3 26.0 32009 1.52 0.54 100

SUN 00Z 24-JAN 36.2 31.5 31.3 22.4 33010 1.53 0.55 30

SUN 03Z 24-JAN 27.3 19.1 33009 1.53 0.55 13

SUN 06Z 24-JAN 31.3 26.0 25.9 18.6 33008 1.53 0.55 25

SUN 09Z 24-JAN 24.3 18.0 32006 1.53 0.55 55

SUN 12Z 24-JAN 25.9 23.3 23.0 16.4 32005 1.53 0.55 0

SUN 15Z 24-JAN 30.7 19.8 32003 1.53 0.55 0

SUN 18Z 24-JAN 37.9 22.0 37.9 23.9 32002 1.53 0.55 0

SUN 21Z 24-JAN 38.4 27.5 26003 1.53 0.55 5

MON 00Z 25-JAN 41.1 33.4 34.1 24.7 23004 1.53 0.55 1

MON 03Z 25-JAN 28.0 21.2 20005 1.53 0.55 0

MON 06Z 25-JAN 34.4 21.7 21.3 16.1 21006 1.53 0.55 100

MON 09Z 25-JAN 21.3 17.4 21006 1.53 0.55 96

MON 12Z 25-JAN 22.7 18.7 20.9 19.1 21006 1.53 0.55 95

MON 15Z 25-JAN 35.2 29.6 20005 1.53 0.55 82

MON 18Z 25-JAN 44.8 20.8 45.0 33.4 21007 1.53 0.55 85

MON 21Z 25-JAN 46.3 34.2 21008 1.53 0.55 78

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 46.9 41.4 41.4 33.4 20008 1.53 0.55 90

TUE 03Z 26-JAN 43.5 37.1 21008 1.53 0.55 100

TUE 06Z 26-JAN 45.3 41.3 45.4 42.5 21008 1.53 0.55 100

TUE 09Z 26-JAN 46.5 45.7 22008 1.54 0.55 100

TUE 12Z 26-JAN 47.4 44.8 45.2 44.3 26007 1.54 0.55 96

TUE 18Z 26-JAN 47.8 43.0 48.0 34.3 28006 1.54 0.55 21

WED 00Z 27-JAN 49.3 40.0 39.7 28.9 33007 1.54 0.55 23

WED 06Z 27-JAN 39.7 27.8 27.7 20.2 32005 1.54 0.55 10

WED 12Z 27-JAN 30.9 23.9 25.7 19.4 27004 1.54 0.55 11

[wxduncan]

First Call Maps From Brad P. :

PS: The little yellow circles are where I live or close as can be and I used them for reference to a friend

[SN_Lover]

 

First Call Maps From Brad P. :

 

 

PS: The little yellow circles are where I live and I used them for reference to a friend

 

He must be banking on a Godzilla warm nose. 

[frazdaddy]

He must be banking on a Godzilla warm nose. 

Very close to the map Ellinwood posted in the MA forum a minute ago.

[AirNelson39]

He must be banking on a Godzilla warm nose.

I think for right now that's a good of a call map as you'll get. He still has 24 hours to adjust one way or the other. Safe call map

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[burrel2]

He must be banking on a Godzilla warm nose. 

If you follow enough of these threats you will learn that mid-level warm noses almost always punch 20 or 25 miles further north than models show.

[Lookout]

Lookout, if you have time, please give your assessment on the latest model runs

I haven't had a lot of time to look it over but I'll say this the euro is a major ice storm for much of central and northern south carolina. It's the coldest yet for NE ga with freezing temps even making it down to athens..although by the time it does most of the heaviest freezing rain is over. Still believe major ice is on tap for prime locals in extreme northeast ga and much of the upstate and even the midlands of sc

[nchighcountrywx]

GSO and RDU

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GSO LAT= 36.08 LON= -79.93 ELE= 909

12Z JAN20

2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC TOTAL FROZN TOTAL

MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD

(F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)

WED 12Z 20-JAN 20.8 0.7 26002 0.00 0.00 100

WED 15Z 20-JAN 28.2 4.5 22002 0.00 0.00 99

WED 18Z 20-JAN 35.8 19.9 36.0 12.7 22006 0.00 0.00 83

WED 21Z 20-JAN 35.5 17.8 23007 0.00 0.00 100

THU 00Z 21-JAN 37.2 30.4 30.4 23.3 23006 0.04 0.04 91

THU 03Z 21-JAN 29.7 22.8 24006 0.04 0.04 63

THU 06Z 21-JAN 30.4 27.7 27.6 23.4 26005 0.04 0.04 49

THU 09Z 21-JAN 25.5 22.6 30003 0.04 0.04 91

THU 12Z 21-JAN 27.8 25.3 27.3 23.0 00005 0.04 0.04 90

THU 15Z 21-JAN 33.6 21.4 03006 0.04 0.04 64

THU 18Z 21-JAN 39.1 27.3 39.4 19.8 03003 0.04 0.04 1

THU 21Z 21-JAN 39.5 20.9 08002 0.04 0.04 39

FRI 00Z 22-JAN 40.4 29.2 29.7 19.6 10004 0.04 0.04 100

FRI 03Z 22-JAN 29.5 18.7 12004 0.04 0.04 100

FRI 06Z 22-JAN 30.3 28.8 29.3 19.7 09005 0.04 0.04 100

FRI 09Z 22-JAN 29.3 18.3 09005 0.04 0.04 100

FRI 12Z 22-JAN 29.4 27.9 27.7 18.5 07006 0.11 0.11 100

FRI 15Z 22-JAN 26.2 20.6 07009 0.27 0.27 100

FRI 18Z 22-JAN 27.8 25.9 25.9 22.6 06010 0.53 0.53 100

FRI 21Z 22-JAN 26.2 23.7 05012 0.74 0.72 100

SAT 00Z 23-JAN 26.7 25.7 26.7 24.5 04013 0.96 0.77 100

SAT 03Z 23-JAN 26.8 24.5 03015 1.30 0.85 100

SAT 06Z 23-JAN 27.0 26.2 26.2 23.7 02014 1.54 1.01 100

SAT 09Z 23-JAN 25.8 22.2 02015 1.62 1.09 99

SAT 12Z 23-JAN 26.8 25.6 26.7 22.7 00014 1.69 1.17 100

SAT 15Z 23-JAN 28.0 23.1 36014 1.77 1.24 100

SAT 18Z 23-JAN 30.7 26.7 30.8 24.0 35014 1.90 1.38 100

SAT 21Z 23-JAN 30.9 26.1 33012 1.99 1.46 100

SUN 00Z 24-JAN 31.7 29.1 29.2 22.4 34012 2.11 1.59 100

SUN 03Z 24-JAN 27.8 19.8 34011 2.12 1.60 35

SUN 06Z 24-JAN 29.2 24.6 24.5 18.1 33009 2.13 1.60 17

SUN 09Z 24-JAN 22.7 17.4 32008 2.13 1.60 1

SUN 12Z 24-JAN 24.5 21.5 21.6 15.9 32007 2.13 1.60 1

SUN 15Z 24-JAN 27.7 16.6 32004 2.13 1.60 0

SUN 18Z 24-JAN 36.1 21.4 36.4 20.2 32003 2.13 1.60 0

SUN 21Z 24-JAN 38.9 26.3 27003 2.13 1.60 0

MON 00Z 25-JAN 40.9 27.2 26.7 20.3 22005 2.13 1.60 0

MON 03Z 25-JAN 23.0 18.1 24005 2.13 1.60 3

MON 06Z 25-JAN 28.0 20.7 20.9 16.5 26005 2.13 1.60 90

MON 09Z 25-JAN 20.5 16.0 23006 2.13 1.60 97

MON 12Z 25-JAN 23.1 19.7 22.4 16.7 22006 2.13 1.60 96

MON 15Z 25-JAN 30.8 24.2 21006 2.13 1.60 90

MON 18Z 25-JAN 40.8 22.3 41.1 31.4 21007 2.13 1.60 87

MON 21Z 25-JAN 41.8 32.9 20008 2.13 1.60 78

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 42.7 37.5 37.4 32.2 21009 2.13 1.60 49

TUE 03Z 26-JAN 39.2 33.6 22009 2.13 1.60 93

TUE 06Z 26-JAN 40.5 37.4 40.5 36.6 21009 2.13 1.60 98

TUE 09Z 26-JAN 40.5 38.9 22008 2.13 1.60 100

TUE 12Z 26-JAN 40.8 39.0 38.9 38.3 26007 2.14 1.60 76

TUE 18Z 26-JAN 42.6 38.2 42.6 31.1 27007 2.14 1.60 24

WED 00Z 27-JAN 43.1 33.8 33.5 27.3 30009 2.14 1.60 4

WED 06Z 27-JAN 33.5 23.9 23.8 18.7 29006 2.14 1.60 8

WED 12Z 27-JAN 23.9 19.2 20.2 14.9 27006 2.14 1.60 14

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: RDU LAT= 35.87 LON= -78.78 ELE= 440

12Z JAN20

2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC TOTAL FROZN TOTAL

MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD

(F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT)

WED 12Z 20-JAN 22.8 0.6 29001 0.00 0.00 98

WED 15Z 20-JAN 28.1 3.0 24002 0.00 0.00 98

WED 18Z 20-JAN 36.4 21.9 36.6 5.4 19005 0.00 0.00 87

WED 21Z 20-JAN 36.7 10.4 20006 0.00 0.00 100

THU 00Z 21-JAN 37.7 31.6 31.6 19.7 22005 0.02 0.02 100

THU 03Z 21-JAN 30.8 22.2 23005 0.03 0.03 57

THU 06Z 21-JAN 31.6 30.0 30.2 23.0 26006 0.03 0.03 29

THU 09Z 21-JAN 28.3 24.0 29005 0.03 0.03 16

THU 12Z 21-JAN 30.2 27.5 27.6 23.7 34005 0.03 0.03 88

THU 15Z 21-JAN 34.3 18.8 00007 0.03 0.03 27

THU 18Z 21-JAN 39.6 27.5 39.7 19.1 01003 0.03 0.03 30

THU 21Z 21-JAN 39.8 21.2 02001 0.03 0.03 0

FRI 00Z 22-JAN 40.7 29.4 29.6 21.3 08004 0.03 0.03 100

FRI 03Z 22-JAN 28.7 19.9 10004 0.03 0.03 99

FRI 06Z 22-JAN 30.5 28.2 28.7 17.1 08004 0.03 0.03 100

FRI 09Z 22-JAN 28.9 13.8 07005 0.03 0.03 100

FRI 12Z 22-JAN 29.5 28.4 29.3 13.0 06006 0.04 0.04 100

FRI 15Z 22-JAN 28.6 18.6 06007 0.15 0.15 100

FRI 18Z 22-JAN 29.4 28.1 28.6 24.8 06008 0.37 0.36 100

FRI 21Z 22-JAN 29.7 27.4 05011 0.59 0.48 100

SAT 00Z 23-JAN 30.8 28.5 30.9 29.2 05011 0.83 0.50 100

SAT 03Z 23-JAN 32.5 30.9 04013 1.19 0.52 100

SAT 06Z 23-JAN 33.0 30.2 30.7 28.6 01014 1.63 0.59 100

SAT 09Z 23-JAN 29.6 26.3 00016 1.96 0.74 87

SAT 12Z 23-JAN 31.1 28.7 29.0 24.5 35014 1.98 0.77 100

SAT 15Z 23-JAN 28.6 24.0 34013 2.02 0.80 100

SAT 18Z 23-JAN 29.3 28.1 28.8 23.4 33014 2.11 0.90 100

SAT 21Z 23-JAN 28.6 23.8 33014 2.20 0.98 100

SUN 00Z 24-JAN 29.7 28.3 29.7 24.6 33015 2.36 1.15 99

SUN 03Z 24-JAN 30.4 24.5 34014 2.40 1.18 99

SUN 06Z 24-JAN 30.6 29.7 30.3 24.2 34011 2.46 1.24 90

SUN 09Z 24-JAN 29.1 22.8 33009 2.46 1.24 39

SUN 12Z 24-JAN 30.6 24.9 24.8 20.6 33008 2.46 1.25 3

SUN 15Z 24-JAN 30.9 21.8 33006 2.46 1.25 0

SUN 18Z 24-JAN 38.5 24.2 38.8 22.0 33005 2.46 1.25 1

SUN 21Z 24-JAN 36.2 25.1 32004 2.46 1.25 0

MON 00Z 25-JAN 40.4 28.5 28.1 22.1 28004 2.46 1.25 0

MON 03Z 25-JAN 20.9 17.1 27005 2.46 1.25 0

MON 06Z 25-JAN 28.3 17.7 18.4 14.6 27005 2.46 1.25 0

MON 09Z 25-JAN 16.4 12.7 25005 2.46 1.25 98

MON 12Z 25-JAN 20.5 15.5 20.2 14.9 22005 2.46 1.25 97

MON 15Z 25-JAN 31.7 22.5 21004 2.46 1.25 91

MON 18Z 25-JAN 42.1 19.9 42.4 30.4 20007 2.46 1.25 88

MON 21Z 25-JAN 43.0 34.0 19007 2.46 1.25 91

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 43.8 38.8 38.8 33.7 21009 2.46 1.25 6

TUE 03Z 26-JAN 39.3 33.0 21009 2.46 1.25 43

TUE 06Z 26-JAN 40.8 38.6 40.8 34.9 21008 2.46 1.25 93

TUE 09Z 26-JAN 42.5 38.5 22008 2.46 1.25 90

TUE 12Z 26-JAN 43.7 40.8 43.3 41.1 23007 2.47 1.25 100

TUE 18Z 26-JAN 48.0 42.4 47.0 36.0 27006 2.49 1.25 36

WED 00Z 27-JAN 48.3 38.6 38.4 31.8 28007 2.49 1.25 23

WED 06Z 27-JAN 38.4 29.0 28.8 23.6 31005 2.49 1.25 77

WED 12Z 27-JAN 28.8 22.8 23.6 17.0 28004 2.49 1.25 58

[SN_Lover]

If you follow enough of these threats you will learn that mid-level warm noses almost always punch 20 or 25 miles further north than models show.

 

I think for right now that's a good of a call map as you'll get. He still has 24 hours to adjust one way or the other. Safe call map

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Very close to the map Ellinwood posted in the MA forum a minute ago.

I would adjust the .30" ice line 25-50 miles south, then adjust north as time progresses.

[UpStateCAD]

anyone able to see the 18z NAM rolling out?

[griteater]

My interpretation of the Euro run for Charlotte...

 

Lt snow/sleet begins 7PM Thursday

Transitions to light Sleet/Frz Rain overnight Thursday

Moderate sleet/frz rain all day Friday (most likely more freezing rain than sleet)

Transitions to snow 1AM Saturday

Light to moderate snow til 7AM Saturday

Light snow til 1AM Sunday

 

Precip duration is incredible, what a storm!

lol, I was looking at the ensemble instead of the op when I typed this.  Anyway, the same interpretation applies except the precip duration isn't as long.  starts midnight or so Friday, ends Saturday late aftn.

[AirNelson39]

I would adjust the .30" ice line 25-50 miles south, then adjust north as time progresses.

When dealing with the general public one must have the opposite thought process as that. You don't go from dangerous event to less dangerous over time, you go from less dangerous to more dangerous over time while telling folks it could change for the better or worse.

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[DopplerWx]

 

anyone able to see the 18z NAM rolling out?

 

out to 15 right now, lets see if it follows the euro.

 

any word on the eps?

[SN_Lover]

18z NAM isnt going to dig as much. 

[RubiksDestroyer]

18z NAM Already looks a nudge south at hour 18.

[NCSNOW]

out to 15 right now, lets see if it follows the euro.

 

any word on the eps?

Heard it was blockbuster: what about UKIE

[FallsLake]

18z NAM isnt going to dig as much. 

Looks like at 21 it does some..

[SnowNiner]

 

First Call Maps From Brad P. :

 

 

PS: The little yellow circles are where I live or close as can be and I used them for reference to a friend

 

 

Looks like a NAM/GFS combo right?

[Brick Tamland]

out to 15 right now, lets see if it follows the euro.

 

any word on the eps?

 

I read someone else say they supported the op.

[tnweathernut]

I read someone else say they supported the op.

EPS isn't out yet.  At least not on WxBell.

 

Also, Ukie maps aren't loading either, except for the initial and hour 96.

[Stormcatt]

EPS isn't out yet. At least not on WxBell.

Also, Ukie maps aren't loading either, except for the initial and hour 96.

Storm vista it supports the op

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[Poimen]

Through 24 hours, the NAM is pretty far south with the surface low placement in eastern TX.

[BullCityWx]

Euro drives freezing rain all the way to Winnsboro and Camden. As a matter of fact, Camden gets nearly an inch of ZR QPF.

[beanskip]

Wow -- 18z NAM 5h features well south of 12z run at 24.