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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Euro is north of the previous at 54, but well south of the GFS

Sounds like a compromise to meet in the middle may be the answer. Curious to see the RH fields and see if the Euro is starting to get more juiced up like the nam and GFS did this morning? Both had a good front end thump.

Edit: Guys even with a compromise between the GFS and Euro, as you saw at 12z the GFS was still very cold, cold enough anyhow to where most are in the game, whether it be snow, sleet, ZR or a plethora of all.

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This is the coldest Euro run yet, even at the surface.  Going to be serious ice south of the snow line, folks.

 

QPF totals are slightly down from last night (just by a few tenths), but it's still a ton of QPF and there's less mixing, so about the same amount of snow.  Model consensus seems to be building for 1.5-2.0" QPF for a lot of us.

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12z GEFS individual members... big hits across the board.  No misses for most of NC/TN/VA.

 

post-397-0-49828800-1453311089.png

 

Some of those members even bring me into 5+ inches with a couple getting me close to 10 inches......I've never gotten up on this storm and I don't wanna get sucked in but these ensembles all show me getting 2 inches or more except 1 of them.

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The jackpot zone on the 12z Euro is south of Roanoke.  That is a bit south of last night, when the northern Shenandoah Valley looked the best.  DC steps back to "only" 20" or so on this run.

 

Also, RDU and CLT never go above freezing on this run.  GSO is mostly in the mid-20s.

 

So, I assume we can expect RAH to issue Winter Storm Watches with this afternoon's packages?

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My interpretation of the Euro run for Charlotte...

 

Lt snow/sleet begins 7PM Thursday

Transitions to light Sleet/Frz Rain overnight Thursday

Moderate sleet/frz rain all day Friday (most likely more freezing rain than sleet)

Transitions to snow 1AM Saturday

Light to moderate snow til 7AM Saturday

Light snow til 1AM Sunday

 

Precip duration is incredible, what a storm!

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The jackpot zone on the 12z Euro is south of Roanoke. That is a bit south of last night, when the northern Shenandoah Valley looked the best. DC steps back to "only" 20" or so on this run.

Also, RDU and CLT never go above freezing on this run. GSO is mostly in the mid-20s.

So, I assume we can expect RAH to issue Winter Storm Watches with this afternoon's packages?

looks like the ukie is finally starting to load on the meteocentre site.
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12z GEFS and 00z EPS both indicate the possibility of an historic storm, snowfall amounts are just incredible from WNC up into the mid Atlantic. Most storms this fall and winter have over performed in terms of modeled QPF as well. Will be interesting to see how that turns out with this storm. Strong Nino suppression climo ftw? Whoever gets ZR from this storm will be in for a long week or two.

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Major 12z model runs so far for the Winston-Salem area: GFS 13" with 1.4" total precip, NAM 13" with 1.6" total precip, and Canadian 8" with 1.5" total precip.  Looks like the models are settling in on 1.5" liquid equivalent for triad area with less of a mixing issue than previous model runs.  Hopefully the Euro holds.

Update on 12z euro for KINT, 14" with 1.8" total precip.  

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