msuwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting to look at meteograms for CLT and Shelby for the 12z NAM vs. 6z -- actually warmed up at the surface (although it didn't look like it on the maps). I assume this is because of the NAM's more substantial WAA on the 12z run??? CLT is actually above freezing at 2m for the first HALF of the precip. Similar case in Shelby. Obviously the good news is the backside thump of snow. I dont buy that skip, especially if we start off as snow and bottom out around 28 or 29 and this not being an in-situ CAD. Maybe further east but not in the immediate metro from Charlotte to Shelby. That nam has 1.25 freezing rain or sleet charlotte. Lord I hope that's sleet and not frzng rain. Soundings will tell in a minute On the 12k NAM, I have KCLT dropping just below freezing at 5am Friday. The near-SFC freezing layer stays at least 2500-3k feet deep throughout the event, so supercooled droplets that freeze easily. Literally shows 1.11" ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm guessing that since SV allows you to make a GIF and share it via Facebook, twitter and imgur...this is OK to share. Here is the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Canadian is coming in a little further south, and colder. canadian is somewhere in between the euro and gfs..it actually starts pretty far south looking like the euro with the 500mb low before suddenly turning it northeast at the last moment instead of east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Probably based on the Nam, you get the ice idea Check out @Wx1sCLT's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wx1sCLT/status/689829940636692481?s=09 I have light snow showers already. It's the RPM model, not the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On the 12k NAM, I have KCLT dropping just below freezing at 5am Friday. The near-SFC freezing layer stays at least 2500-3k feet deep throughout the event, so supercooled droplets that freeze easily. Literally shows 1.11" ZR. That would be a total disaster for the CLT metro area....especially if we have some snow on the backend to really weigh everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAVGEM finally caved on it's extreme southern scenario with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAVGEM finally caved on it's extreme southern scenario with the ULL Yeah, still looks good, though. Awaiting the UKMET presently. It should be out in the next few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That would be a total disaster for the CLT metro area....especially if we have some snow on the backend to really weigh everything down. Yes, that would be a big, big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 yeah he might just get lucky... the 12z canadian has such a dynamical system it goes over to snow for the northeast corner by 12z friday. some impressive wedging on the east side of the mountains for sure. I think you are right...Lake Lanier and points NE are gonna get lit up by a very nasty ice storm. maybe some snow mixed in there. GFS looks clueless with 2m, NAM is trying, EURO and CMC look rock solid on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAVGEM finally caved on it's extreme southern scenario with the ULL Uh oh. Starting the north trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 canadian is somewhere in between the euro and gfs..it actually starts pretty far south looking like the euro with the 500mb low before suddenly turning it northeast at the last moment instead of east. looks very cold at 2m....GFS not seeing the wedging...likely an error...EURO looks cold, and we know how it is with 2m temps in wedging events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Uh oh. Starting the north trends? More likely, the NAVGEM is just coming into more agreement with the building model consensus. It's still fairly far south, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 More likely, the NAVGEM is just coming into more agreement with the building model consensus. It's still fairly far south, anyways. Yea it was most extreme right? Just finding a good middle ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 850 temps for rgem at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any UKIE yet? The Meteo Canada site is not updating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's not good. That means the Euro will be further North this next run. That is asinine reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's not good. That means the Euro will be further North this next run.I fully disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I knew the inflated QPF's were probably not going to last, but is there a meteorological mechanism that's causing a relaxation in qpf? Wtih exception of nam, every model so far has constricted the area of "historic" snofall, especially in VA, to a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is asinine reasoning UKMET is usually a good indicator of the future Euro idea. NAVY model not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's not good. That means the Euro will be further North this next run.no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any UKIE yet? The Meteo Canada site is not updating....it didn't update last night either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Dang, got my models mixed up! We all are in super weenie mode today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is asinine reasoning Seriously...not sure why anyone would assume that. I guess it's possible but NAVGEM aint exactly the leader of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The gefs appears to be a little south of the op at hr 54 but ends up around the same place at hr 66. It does look a little colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM: Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 11.45.42 AM.png Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 11.42.02 AM.png Seems like an IP solution for a good portion of the event in a large swath of Central and Northern NC based on the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Robert has updated his facebook page, if you want to really get your blood pumping before lunch and this next EURO run, I suggest you go read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seriously...not sure why anyone would assume that. I guess it's possible but NAVGEM aint exactly the leader of anything. Got it confused with the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12 GEFS looks beautiful to me. Almost looks like a Miller A tracking across instead of reforming. Anyway it's a tick further south earlier on and a bit quicker to get to the coast. It's noticeably colder at both the surface and especially 850. It looks to keep the NW Triad below 0 at 850 for the duration (it's close anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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