DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @69 colder, snow from just west of rdu to wnc. upstate sc too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @51 GFS is MUCH colder with 850's. Goes back to yesterday that the models underestimate the cad. Big storm incoming Edit: I was actually viewing 2m temps but upstairs it is very cold. Just looking at hour 54 and it now has the 850 running right along the NC/VA boarder. That was up into S. VA on the 6z. This is critical for areas "on the line". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 def colder run, great look for wnc. slp may have been a bit e which allowed temps to cooperate more. good run, will have to see if the euro doubles down in a hr or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's the 12z NAM meteogram for GSP Snow.......1.7" Sleet........ .0080 ZR........... .87 EDIT: stoopid phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well imho GFS kind of tempered qpf amounts across the area compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z gfs: 06z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's a big difference for the I-85 corridor. Small shifts are going to make a big difference in how much snow we get here. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 sweet spot N foothills: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well imho GFS kind of tempered qpf amounts across the area compared to other models. That seems realistic to me. Models usually back off of insane precip amounts as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's a big difference for the I-85 corridor. Small shifts are going to make a big difference in how much snow we get here. Good trend. need it to keep trending e with that slp after it transfers, it will help temps for wnc and central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 sweet spot N foothills: 50 more miles south then we are game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm pretty sure the GFS was colder aloft for the northeast Piedmont. It also did not warm us up at surface as much as the NAM. Models are are converging on a front end thump of snow transitioning to sleet:freezing rain for central NC. I'll take it. Deformation band still in play too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also, the storm tracks a little farther east than the 6z and especially the 0z. Need that shifting to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also, the storm tracks a little farther east than the 6z and especially the 0z. Need that shifting to continue. yea, verbatim a quick snow then to frz rain or sleet and then it changes to rain before going back to snow. another shift e and we see that backend snow come in much earlier resulting in less ice and more snow accums. wonder if the gefs will come in further e as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 51s52 seconds ago 12z GFS shows major mess increases snow and ice totals across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is definitely a storm you should be paying attention to. The first person i thought of that would get slammed was you lol. lol i certainly am now - earlier this week it had looked like n ga was going to miss out with a dumping just to our north and east. so i was watching for today (which is so far a no go ) the wedge showing up certainly is starting to look formidable around ne ga - and a lot of moisture. even better is its coming up fast, and not days away! it will be interesting to see if we can start out as a little snow before going to ice - i havent seen anything modeled this close like this in quite a while for the cad areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WOW, that map smokes the Brushies, thanks for sharing. Model consensus slowly coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's where it gets fun watching models at 12z. It'll start with can, ukie, euro and euro ens laying the hammer on alot of us, just like last night. Amx guidance playing catch up still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 lol i certainly am now - earlier this week it had looked like n ga was going to miss out with a dumping just to our north and east. so i was watching for today (which is so far a no go ) the wedge showing up certainly is starting to look formidable around ne ga - and a lot of moisture. even better is its coming up fast, and not days away! it will be interesting to see if we can start out as a little snow before going to ice - i havent seen anything modeled this close like this in quite a while for the cad areas Don't lose hope, the Euro ensembles last night gave you some snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's the 12z NAM meteogram for GSP Snow.......1.7" Sleet........ .0080 ZR........... .87 EDIT: stoopid phone That would not be good for the upstate! That spells disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 nam for rdu. little bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This gives you a nice idea of where the phase change/mixing may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the last day we've been watching to see if the GFS would cave to the euro. It never did cave, but it did continuously trend SE with each model run. At this point I'm not sure how much more trending it can do. Big question now is does the euro cave to the GFS or does it slightly trend in its direction. So maybe tonight they come together through trends (basically meeting in the middle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC is a huge ZR storm for everyone outside of the mountains in NC then switches over to a good dump of snow for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If I had to guess there would be a wide swath of 4 - 8 inches across much of the state on the Canadian? Hard to tell with my maps and the snow depth map is always late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Don't lose hope, the Euro ensembles last night gave you some snow..... yeah he might just get lucky... the 12z canadian has such a dynamical system it goes over to snow for the northeast corner by 12z friday. some impressive wedging on the east side of the mountains for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Canadian is coming in a little further south, and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the last day we've been watching to see if the GFS would cave to the euro. It never did cave, but it did continuously trend SE with each model run. At this point I'm not sure how much more trending it can do. Big question now is does the euro cave to the GFS or does it slightly trend in its direction. So maybe tonight they come together through trends (basically meeting in the middle). It caved at 5 h cause it was shooting primary up into ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Canadian is coming in a little further south, and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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