BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is treading water but should still be, at the very least, a SN/IP mix at HKY by 51. Looks like full on IP by 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 500mb farther south at 54, in NC Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is now all snow for HKY by 45. and several inches on the ground (5-7") by 12Z Friday for much of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @54 850's above 0 but 2m temps below all the way to the NC SC border. Big Sleet or ZR fest with good precip overhead. ULL over northern Alabama/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like a front end snow dump of at least 4-6" before IP hits in places like Gaston County(N&W of 85), Hickory, Lincolnton, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 man thats a heck of a wedge, snow line below the nc/va border. getting 60+hrs out though so take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z NAM continues the trend of weakening the primary faster and transferring to the secondary farther south. Actually has a third min sfc pressure over the GA/FL coastline at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z NAM continues the trend of weakening the primary faster and transferring to the secondary farther south. I really, really like this run for my neck of the woods and over on 150 to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Better run, but still too warm for GA and the western NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the RDU folks there is a lot more precip that gets in early that allows for > .25 qpf as snow before any changeover. ***Most of our big ice storms have had a period of snow at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Big storm for NC on this run folks! @57 heavy rates 2m below 0 for a good chunk of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The rates seem to continue going heavy at the time of transition to an IP event. This NAM run just gives a better front end bump of snow. Looks like a front end snow dump of at least 4-6" before IP hits in places like Gaston County(N&W of 85), Hickory, Lincolnton, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The faster that primary collapses, the better for WNC/SC to get in on the deform band as the low gets captured and bombs out. Trends continue to kill it off quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 slp reforms off myrtle at 63, maybe a tad south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like back to snow by 10PM on Friday? I havent seen a sounding so I cant confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 slp reforms off myrtle at 63, maybe a tad south and east? Yes. Comparing 63 to 69 it is def southeast and unlike the euro it is offshore and not inland which will help with the 850's. I think that's the best we could've hoped for out of the nam for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the RDU folks there is a lot more precip that gets in early that allows for > .25 qpf as snow before any changeover. ***Most of our big ice storms have had a period of snow at the beginning. I am thinking snow to sleet and back to snow later on. We might do better with snow being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 secondary low is about 20 miles South and East of last run. 2m temperature freezing line hangs out on a line between RDU and CLT for a few frames. Looks to keep Triad well below freezing the entire run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My goodness qpf totals are going to be phenomenal me thinks. A lot of happy people from the nam. Didn't punch the ULL into the cad finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snow STILL coming down at hour 72 for Charlotte/Hickory/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Almost looks like a deform band snows itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good thump of snow at the end. I would expect the NAM to start looking more and more like the Euro as the runs go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like about .5" more qpf in many areas compared to last run. Seeing some 3" areas...more than likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good thump of snow at the end. I would expect the NAM to start looking more and more like the Euro as the runs go on. Yup, this is the jump we've been waiting on. It'll be interesting to see the next run of the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So HKY goes snow (4-6inches) then to sleet for maybe 4 hrs then back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So HKY goes snow (4-6inches) then to sleet for maybe 4 hrs then back to snow? I'd say that is fair for this run. This events usually overperform in my experience with the front end snow thump, especially in the catawba valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yup, this is the jump we've been waiting on. It'll be interesting to see the next run of the SREF. I think we need to start looking at this with regards to how an ULL is usually handled by the NAM. It usually has it going all over the place and doesn't hone in until around 48 hours out or so. I'm still concerned the GFS hasn't really caved though it might begin to at 12z. The fact that NAM appears to be dropping though tells me I shouldn't be worried about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Better run, but still too warm for GA and the western NC mountains. This run is a pretty big ice storm for prime cad areas from dawsonville/gainesville to clayton...especially any areas at or above 1500 feet. In fact, i fear it's a crippling one as it brings 2 or 3 inch liquid. Check out 925mb temps..sub freezing mostly during the entire storm over the northeast corner. Pretty bad stuff in those areas. Of course the million dollar question is does it continue to expand south from here. I don't think this is anything but rain for atlanta and athens but from dawson county/hall county northeast are certainly starting to be at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yup, this is the jump we've been waiting on. It'll be interesting to see the next run of the SREF. The quicker that primary dies out, the faster the precip will rotate into our area and form the comma head on the coastal low. That's our big snow maker. It's initial snow, then a mix, then back to snow. Step 3 is still hard to pinpoint until we know exactly when and where the secondary bombs out and the primary dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am thinking snow to sleet and back to snow later on. We might do better with snow being further north. Why? I'm just curious to know your reasoning. Which model is showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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