BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Outside of what little interest exist in this room, the Euro solution is a non solution. We are at the point that if the GFS were going to Cave toward the euro I think we would've seen an indicator by now. Not saying i would dismiss the euro I'm just going to remain extremely reserved regarding our chances of seeing a significant snowfall in central North Carolina. I would love a 20 inch block buster as much as anyone but this is starting to look like a very wet Friday with maybe a couple of token inches on the backend. If you're going to tell us you dont like the euro solution, you're going to need to present reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like some think that run of the Euro was worse for the Triangle, even though the totals on the ensembles look bigger for snow. And RAH is making it sound like it is going to be mostly freezing rain and rain. What's the deal?The ensemble mean for snow in Raleigh was worse with the new 00z than the 12z yesterday. Whoever you're getting that information from is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The ensemble mean for snow in Raleigh was worse with the new 00z than the 12z yesterday. Whoever you're getting that information from is wrong. Which is a little surprising. Almost all the locations in the CLT metro jumped higher this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Exactly. Whole lotta pink in that Asheville EPS graph dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So is this another EURO cave to king GFS? What in the sam hell are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Which is a little surprising. Almost all the locations in the CLT metro jumped higher this run.RDU is just a crucial area with any storm, the closer this low is to the coast the worse for RDU and a bit better for CLT. Needs to track south and off of HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you're going to tell us you dont like the euro solution, you're going to need to present reasoning. This. ^ Let's not forget as well, the EPS is very similar to the OP run. I saw a talk at AMS last week in New Orleans that said the EPS outperformed all other models at 48 hours. That's today. I have no reason to go against 52 members of the Euro at this point, given the depth of the trough and how it classically transfers the energy to the coast. That being said, the GFS is not quickly heading in that direction, despite its GEFS members trying to do so. I absolutely think Euro (EPS) is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think it should be noted that this was never going to be a all snow event outside of the mountains. There will be some mixing of different p-types outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here is the latest breakdown for my area(Hickory NC and Points West): Just a side note to make the images bigger just right click and select view image. Hickory NC Precipitation Breakdown: Snow Total: 3.6 inches Freezing Rain Total: 0.30 inches Morganton NC Precipitation Breakdown: Snow Total: 6.2 inches Freezing Rain Total: 0.22 inches Valdese NC Precipitation Breakdown: Snow Total: 4.7 inches Freezing Rain Total: 0.22 inches And Here Are The Sref Plumes For Hickory NC (Including Snow and QPF): On a side note the SREF mean for snow for HKY is 4.05 inches. And the SREF mean for QPF for HKY is 1.67 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 folks...we need to cut back a bit on the one line chatter. That and IMBY questions should be directed toward the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RDU is just a crucial area with any storm, the closer this low is to the coast the worse for RDU and a bit better for CLT. Needs to track south and off of HAT. If we combined the GFS and euro we might get something close to the 96 storm. That was a large sleet fest for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Guys catch me up about NE Georgia And upstate SC. Ice Storm? Can't access EURO. Some mixing to rain to back end snow. Depending where you are the back end snow may leap frog you on the lee side (parts of the upstate and ne ga). Right now it's anyone's guess for our area. Only areas I'd feel confident on being a huge hit would be NW NC and surrounding and due north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What does the euro para say. It has the best verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here is the latest HWO from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Some mixing to rain to back end snow. Depending where you are the back end snow may leap frog you on the lee side (parts of the upstate and ne ga). Right now it's anyone's guess for our area. Only areas I'd feel confident on being a huge hit would be NW NC and surrounding and due north of there. FYI, all of the models have us getting colder throughout the day on Friday as the event unfolds. There won't be a switch back to rain in this event. If anything, it will be how soon can we switch from rain over to sleet/freezing and then possibly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. Yeah I agree with Jon, it (EURO) looks more West and will cause mixing issues for everyone outside the mtn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track.It must be the pink colors on the snow output, because I don't get it either. Systems rolling inland will screw a lot of people in the SE....I don't care what the snow maps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jon, I think folks have been too focused on the digging energy and the low prior to transfer and haven't been looking at the location of the low off the NC coast. The NE folks like that low placement on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. This. Regardless of ull track or phasing etc, the inland or extreme coastal track is pretty rough for all east of I77 for the most part.. Surely want to avoid .91 zr in the Triangle, can tell you that. Safer to get more of a rain signal then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the EURO is colder on the front end for central NC, allowing for more snow before transitioning. The track of the mid level low is also ideal for back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For CAE the 06zNAM says 33.5 and rain. The 06zGFS says 40.2 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Biggest change to the KJNX (Clayton/Smithfield) area forecast is that the chance of snow now extends through 1:00 AM Sunday, instead of ending during the day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For Hickory, the 06Z GFS and the 06Z NAM both raise the modeled QPF and modeled snowfall as compared to their 00Z counterparts. The big difference between the two models is what they do with the ice totals: The most recent NAM sees a much shallower warm nose and prints out close to an inch's worth of QPF in the form of sleet, while the most recent GFS sees almost half an inch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New Video(6:52am) from Bernie Rayno: http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/90462062001/major-snowstorm-bears-down-on?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin According to there(Accuweather) snow map just west of CLT gets 1-3 inches of snow then the Foothills get 3-6 inches of snow and finally the Mountains get 6-12+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to know why people prefer the Euro, especially the EPS low locations. The 06z GEFS has a line of low locations along the coast of NC, essentially along the OBX. While the 00z EPS has lows way inland and the majority of them in tech coastal plains. Keep in mind I'm not talking about ULL placement or the S/W...just talking about the surface low track. Well, I was going to have mixing issues anyways so you might as well just give me an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 fwiw, new 06z arpege continues to agree with the euro solution. only goes to 60 hours on the 06z run but this is similar to the 0z run where just beyond this time frame it transfers the surface low to south ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 woke up to see the euro ensemble mean coming in looking very much like the operational run...just a tick slower in closing off the upper low but does so over alabama by 66 hours... pretty much the same with the surface low track through 78 hours. precip/thermal profiles look similar pretty crazy agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For Hickory, the 06Z GFS and the 06Z NAM both raise the modeled QPF and modeled snowfall as compared to their 00Z counterparts. The big difference between the two models is what they do with the ice totals: The most recent NAM sees a much shallower warm nose and prints out close to an inch's worth of QPF in the form of sleet, while the most recent GFS sees almost half an inch of freezing rain. Great post. The nam also is cooler at the 850 level for my area by almost .5 degrees during the heaviest time of the storm . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RDU is just a crucial area with any storm, the closer this low is to the coast the worse for RDU and a bit better for CLT. Needs to track south and off of HAT.Even if RAH goes to rain, Upstate and NE Ga. , can still be all zr/sleet, as we are better situated for wedges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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