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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Guys I posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, however I do have a question in reference to the progression of the vort in TN and KY. If that thing passes overhead of me will that hurt me or will the strengthening effect of the primary low compensate for it passing overhead?

You want to be about 50-200 miles removed from the 700mb track on the NW side.

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CMC 12z

 

Quick read sketch out...

 

Surface

 

 

 

Dewpoints

 

 

 

lol, for CLT.  Can't even get winter precip with the CMC! I'm going to see what the EURO and Ensembles say today.  If they have the same Bish transfer with a low in the central gulf states, I'm moving on to February.  

 

Where is that dang SSW anyway? 

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The 00z Parallel Euro is very far south. Crushes NC and SE VA. DC gets almost nothing. Probably just a wonky run, but hmm...

Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today.

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Ugh, looks like a nasty ice storm outside of the mountains in NC. I would rather it just come north and give us rain than that Zr mess (mainly areas North and west of GSO that is)

It's jons fault for throwing out the ole Dec 2002 analog yesterday. Jinx lol.

Canadian ens further south of its op

Gonna get ice triad. Best case would be be some quick front end snow and mostly sleet less than .30 frzng rain with a inch of wrap around snow on backside. .30 is all I want to see frzng rn after that want no part of it.

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Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today.

Triad to RDU gets 11-12", Northern boarder counties of triad get 17", CTL gets 5", DC gets 2"

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Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today.

Here is a good view:

12" - Triad, 11" - RDU, crushes Richmond, etc.

EDIT: I deleted the image to comply with WeatherBell's TOS.

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The Euro parallel ? When we start to use bizarre models, the more desperate we are!? What is the Euro parallel? I've heard of GFS parallel

The Euro Parallel has a better verification score than the regular Euro, so I wouldn't discount it necessarily. We'll see, though.

I deleted the map, by the way. Wasn't thinking when I posted it.

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Hey guys, a heads up. You will get in trouble if you keep posting those WxBell Euro maps. Do not want them to quit offering them.....All the other WxBell stuff is OK, just not the detailed Euro stuff.

Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area.

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The Euro Parallel has a better verification score than the regular Euro, so I wouldn't discount it necessarily. We'll see, though.

I deleted the map, by the way. Wasn't thinking when I posted it.

 

These are x-perimentals due for release later on after their trials.  his particular one in March.  It should be better, but still not ready for prime time so take with a grain.

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Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area.

Yep. Generally Maue will post snowfall maps of his models anyway, so if all else fails just watch twitter and he'll post them 9 times out of 10 to generate subscribers, so it's a win-win really. Describing the images via text goes a long way as well. 

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These are x-perimentals due for release later on after their trials.  his particular one in March.  It should be better, but still not ready for prime time so take with a grain.

No doubt, but still. We'll see if the 12z Euro makes any shifts. The Euro did make a good couple hundred mile SE jog with the precip shield in yesterday's runs (Pittsburgh went from 36" to 2"), so there could be something to it, but we'll have to wait and see. For now, it's a lone outlier.

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The 12z Para isn't even that different from the 12z** Euro Op wrt the track, it just essentially doesn't amp up so close to the delmarva area and instead, waits until its a bit out to sea to do so. That in turn generates heavy back end snow for the Piedmont/Triangle area of NC with 0.7" liquid falling in 6 hours as the storm is off the coast. Don't discount that scenario, but it would be best-case scenario without a doubt.

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Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area.

So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct?

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So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct?

 

In moderation with credit to his website.  Euro WXBell maps are a no go as a whole.. if he adds a new model and has a specific text with it to not share it, don't.  That happened with the experimental longer range UKMET last year.  Now it's gone. :(

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So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct?

Just to clear this up, Euro 0.5 (WMO-essential) is fine (the 24 hour interval maps that are found on most model sites)...any shorter interval maps or mesoscale data (snow, etc) is not ok.

 

From WxBell:

Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan.

 

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I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on out

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