Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It still ends up there and is too warm for a lot of NC. So now it's the stare down between the GFS and the Euro. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Stare down between the GFS and every other model? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It still ends up there and is too warm for a lot of NC. So now it's the stare down between the GFS and the Euro. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Yeah, looks like another I-40 special with areas south changing over to rain at some point. About like 00z. Given every other model is colder, I don't think we need to worry too much, but it's certainly a feasible solution. In any case, we roll the dice again in six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS is south of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So I think I've caught up on the 00z runs, correct me if I'm wrong but the GFS Op and ENS suite are more coastal while the Euro and EPS is more inland. The EPS in particular moved the mslp mean low from over the OBX to inland NC. The transfer location looks fine on the mean, we just need that low to be off the coast before Hatteras and there aren't any members showing that I believe if I recall correctly. If we see any trends for the SE we desperately need them by 12z. I don't see how the 00z Euro overnight got everyone excited for our area really, the 12z Euro yesterday was better. 12z had a more southern low transfer and south of hat, meant more snow for NC. Am I missing something? 00z Euro is basically DC's wishcast and verbatim as far as the surface low and snowfall, it was a huge trend north not south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS is south of the 0z run Just a tad bit with the first low but after that its pretty similar to the 00Z, we need the new low on the coast to be 100 miles further SE at least from hrs 66-78....if the GFS is right with that low track then its mix to rain for 75% of NC for most of the event with some ice/snow front and back but that wont amount to much outside of the NW corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 06z NAVGEM sticks to its guns and destroys NC. It is consistent, if not wrong, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z NOGAPS doesn't flinch... Edit: I see superjames beat me to it, I think he might be as big of a weenie as I am. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So I think I've caught up on the 00z runs, correct me if I'm wrong but the GFS Op and ENS suite are more coastal while the Euro and EPS is more inland. The EPS in particular moved the mslp mean low from over the OBX to inland NC. The transfer location looks fine on the mean, we just need that low to be off the coast before Hatteras and there aren't any members showing that I believe if I recall correctly. If we see any trends for the SE we desperately need them by 12z. I don't see how the 00z Euro overnight got everyone excited for our area really, the 12z Euro yesterday was better. 12z had a more southern low transfer and south of hat, meant more snow for NC. Am I missing something? 00z Euro is basically DC's wishcast and verbatim as far as the surface low and snowfall, it was a huge trend north not south. 1000% agree. That low is WAY too close to the coast. Verbatim 0z Euro is rain storm with some chance for mixing sleet for eastern half of NC into SE Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Big 12z runs today. RAH has not latched on to either of the models, so I would gather both are equally possible. Part of last nights discussion (..as all you already know): THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFERSOME... ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY... ANDRESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVENTUAL PRIMARY COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAYINTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER OFTHE TWO... WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.HOWEVER... THE GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH IS TRACK OF THESYSTEM TOO. THE LATEST NAM IS SIMILAR... BUT KEEPS SURFACE TEMPS ALITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS. No preference mentioned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like some think that run of the Euro was worse for the Triangle, even though the totals on the ensembles look bigger for snow. And RAH is making it sound like it is going to be mostly freezing rain and rain. What's the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 06z GEFS looks pretty similar to the 00z GEFS, though the clown map totals did increase some. It was a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like some think that run of the Euro was worse for the Triangle, even though the totals on the ensembles look bigger for snow. And RAH is making it sound like it is going to be mostly freezing rain and rain. What's the deal? RAH's forecast seems to be based off the GFS (or closely looks like it). At this point that makes since. Always easier to trend the forecast colder the next 24 hours. **and think about it; they always wait (stay conservative) to the last day to either trend colder or warmer. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-211100-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA ANDWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ANDNORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING ANDAFTERNOON...MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW. THE SNOW MAY TRANSITION BRIEFLYTO A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENINGBEFORE ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LESS THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATION ISEXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. PATCHES OF BLACK ICE SHOULDBE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX LIKELY. A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURESYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN TO NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY.PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN DURINGTHE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONSMOST LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACKACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS ANDCONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES WILLRESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES...SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONSTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.$$ Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016NCZ033-049-050-211100-AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX LIKELY. A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURESYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PURE SNOW DURING THE EVENINGHOURS...SATURDAY...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP INTHE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...COLDTEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATEDROADS AND BRIDGES...SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONSTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.$$ Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-211100-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-555 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA ANDUPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THECAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. A LARGE AND STRONG LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FREEZING RAIN TO THECHARLOTTE METRO AREA ON FRIDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TOBEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACKACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVINGCONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES...SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONSTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Forecasting nightmare for our area. That warm air can be a b**ch sometimes. Looking at the latest NAM, KFQD 850 temps continue to make the downward progression to 0.0 during the heaviest qpf. A prefect FZRN sounding. However, if the CAD (which is noted might be stronger in their AFD) is a touch stronger.. Maybe it works out. Official Guidance from NWS GSP for Western and Mountains of North CarolinaAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC410 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=nc&prodtype=zone#ZFPGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like some think that run of the Euro was worse for the Triangle, even though the totals on the ensembles look bigger for snow. And RAH is making it sound like it is going to be mostly freezing rain and rain. What's the deal? This link should explain it all Brick. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 from bufkit GFS seems to be going big time FZRA for Raleigh with a couple inches back end snow. NAM likes a little fzra/sleet at the onset and then pretty much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 06z GEFS looks pretty similar to the 00z GEFS, though the clown map totals did increase some. It was a little wetter. It ticked south, wetter, and colder at all levels. Clown maps are ridiculous. Bullseye of over 20 inches in the NC Mountains on a mean! Everything east of there is highly suspect due to mixing. I will be looking at the RGEM to start to show the best breakdown of snow/sleet/freezing rain on tonight and tomorrows runs. It seems to have the best algorithm for mixing issues in recent years. These "snowfall" maps will not verify folks! That doesn't mean that we wont have one humdinger of a storm. Just don't expect to measure it with a yardstick! Here's what many NC folks in the I-40/85 corridor are looking at right now: 1) A few inches of snow possible 2) then an inch or two of sleet 3) next is .1-.3 inches of freezing rain 4) finally, an inch or two of snow on top Classic Southeast MAJOR STORM in every way possible. Look for wind and power outages too! Get ready! Great sledding...just don't buy ingredient to make snowcream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Question: If RDU started as frozen precip Thursday night/Friday morning, would the rain afterward help to melt some of that away before it goes frozen again? If the brunt of this storm is fzra and sleet for us, I'd rather just have rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Guys trying to catch up from last night, here was Last night breakdown.euro was a crush job for NC. Ukie, nogaps and Canadian and euro ens where all right there in lock step. American guidance is on another page still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z rgem!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure about that. Based on bufkits, model maps, and sref, I'm definitely seeing a long period of rain on Friday...if not most of Friday in Wake County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure about that. Based on bufkits, model maps, and sref, I'm definitely seeing a long period of rain on Friday...if not most of Friday in Wake County.... Is that the same SREF that gave me 20" of snow last february? that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure about that. Based on bufkits, model maps, and sref, I'm definitely seeing a long period of rain on Friday...if not most of Friday in Wake County.... If the surface low tracks inland, that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Full blown miller a on the jma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Full blown miller a on the jma! What is the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is the track?here you go!http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=jma&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=jma&stn2=PNM&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 here you go! http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=jma&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=jma&stn2=PNM&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Sweet, inland through the sounds. Good for your area. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sweet, inland through the sounds. Good for your area. Thanks man!your not going to west Jefferson for this? That area looks to pick up 2 feet.6z jma tracks the low along the gulf Coast now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Outside of what little interest exist in this room, the Euro solution is a non solution. We are at the point that if the GFS were going to Cave toward the euro I think we would've seen an indicator by now. Not saying i would dismiss the euro I'm just going to remain extremely reserved regarding our chances of seeing a significant snowfall in central North Carolina. I would love a 20 inch block buster as much as anyone but this is starting to look like a very wet Friday with maybe a couple of token inches on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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