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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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I can't believe the trends today, guys. Hoping they hole today. Hoping the GFS comes on board but do we really NEED it on board with the EURO being in absolute lock-step with its ensembles? Do you bet against that ever? Holy cow, man. I'm floored by these maps. Do the maps from WxBell take mixing into account at all? Also, where can I find easy to read skew-t graphs/soundings?

 

I really thought it'd be a legitimately long time to see something like Feb 2014 again...

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Mean is "snowier" down to the Midlands of SC on the back-side.  12z is going to be interesting.

 

The 2 inch+ line is creeping ever so slowly southward per run.  Many more members with it here or on the doorstep.

 

Earlier, there were 40+ members with something at all here.. i will recount and update this post.

 

Edit: 39 members with winter weather into the midlands area... but again.. a lot more heavier ones.

Yeah, looks better here, as well. The bar graphs will be fun in an hour. No way I'm going to bed until then, haha.

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I can't believe the trends today, guys. Hoping they hole today. Hoping the GFS comes on board but do we really NEED it on board with the EURO being in absolute lock-step with its ensembles? Do you bet against that ever? Holy cow, man. I'm floored by these maps. Do the maps from WxBell take mixing into account at all? Also, where can I find easy to read skew-t graphs/soundings?

 

I really thought it'd be a legitimately long time to see something like Feb 2014 again...

As I understand it, the WeatherBell maps for the Euro have been fixed so that they only show snow on the clown.

Otherwise, the clown would've shown 23" IMBY on the 00z run when in reality the clown spit out 15" (because of mixing). Of course, the algorithm for doing that might not be perfect, though.

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The idea here is to read the following part: "FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE"
 

 

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...
...STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...


FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO WESTERN WA
WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAS STREAMING UNDERNEATH IT MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WHICH
CROSSES THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT A
SURFACE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING TOWARD NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN WITH
MANY SOLUTIONS MOVING TOWARD THE SLOWER DIRECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER WHICH BRINGS IT TO THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SPREAD. THIS BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER 00Z NAM SOLUTION. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MIGRATES FROM THE LOWER
TN VALLEY TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC WHICH WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
ARE NOTED WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC BEING ON THE FAR NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IS NOTED OFF TO THE
SOUTH
THE 00Z GFS HAS CONTINUED TO EXUDE MUCH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY VERSUS THE ECMWF SUITE WHICH HAS BEEN MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD/SLOWER
. WILL TRUST THE STABILITY OF THE 00Z GFS HERE BUT
COMBINE IT WITH THE CENTERED ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN SLOWER SO THIS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

 

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NAM is colder and quite odd at h5.. but... the 2m freeze line is into Northern SC this run so far.

 

What is up with that cutoff on 552 well above the digging energy around hr 33?

 

 

- NE GA is really close to being hit pretty hard on the front end by hr 60?  I have crappy maps.  850 good.. 2m close.

 

- NC mountains should do okay per NAM.  Lots of precip and cold enough I'd think by hr 63.

 

- NAM with a crazy solution/heavy winter precip event?  I'll let someone with more experience with the model description thing clean this up/continue.  but wow.

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It started much further south, then had a major 3 hour jump almost NNE to get it close to where it's 00z run went rather than it's smoother NE track at 00z. So rather than initially being 100-150 or so miles south before it transfers, it's now about 40 miles south of it's 00z run before the transfer. 

 

NAM is colder and quite odd at h5.. but... the 2m freeze line is into Northern SC this run so far.

 

What is up with that cutoff on 552 well above the digging energy?

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It started much further south, then had a major 3 hour jump almost NNE to get it close to where it's 00z run went rather than it's smoother NE track at 00z. So rather than initially being 100-150 or so miles south before it transfers, it's now about 40 miles south of it's 00z run before the transfer. 

 

Yeah, the 06z is coming now.. which I was speaking about.  instantweathermaps site is where i was getting the quicker data from.. which burger is here.. and he can do a much better job now. ;D

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6z NAM def. shifted north of it's 00z run. Again though I wouldn't even bother looking at it past 48 hours. 

For whatever reason it transfers much later. It went from Nashville to south Georgia between 66 and 69 at 00z. It makes it all the way to Knoxville on this run then transfers off the coast at Charleston during the same time frame.

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This isn't just a fun and wet snow storm to track. Absolute destruction from the WPC from Winston to Greensboro... half inch of ice or greater up to a 40% chance.  :yikes:

 

Need to be alert for damaging ice from Durham to Hickory. Also Virginia folks like South Boston and Danville even have a 20% chance. Theoretical chance for this destruction also extends on up into the immediate south-west VA area.

 

Be ready for some ice I think areas further north and west will be surprised by this...not just something upstate South Carolina should monitor.

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This isn't just a fun and wet snow storm to track. Absolute destruction from the WPC from Winston to Greensboro... half inch of ice or greater up to a 40% chance.  :yikes:

 

Need to be alert for damaging ice from Durham to Hickory. Also Virginia folks like South Boston and Danville even have a 20% chance. Theoretical chance for this destruction also extends on up into the immediate south-west VA area.

 

Be ready for some ice I think areas further north and west will be surprised by this...not just something upstate South Carolina should monitor.

Oh, yeah, I'm definitely preparing. Going to gas up the generator tomorrow. With the wind, potential ice, and wet snow, I expect power outages.

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Official Guidance from NWS GSP for Western and Mountains of North Carolina

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

410 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WAS OVER THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WILL BE AIDED BY GENERALLY GOOD SHORT

RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT...AND DETAILED TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM THE

NAM12. I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE GFS AND

ECMWF FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY...I WILL

BLEND IN LLVL THERMAL DETAILS FROM THE NAM12...BANKING ON THE BETTER

HANDLING OF COLD AIR DAMMING.

THURSDAY...0Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE

ONSET OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL

FEATURE SLOWER INCREASE OF POPS FRONT SW TO NE...DECREASING QPF. BY

LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE

UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS...SCHC

OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY

RANGE IN THE MID 40S.

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST OVER NRN MS/AL...WITH GFS FASTER NEAR THE TN/AL/GA STATE

INTERSECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY

START TO RIDGE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ALONG THE EAST

FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS

DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH IDEAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE COMBINATION

OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP LLVL LIFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR 100 PERCENT BY

THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE

FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...SUPPORTED BY GUSTY NE WINDS. FREEZING

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW ACROSS THE EAST FACING

SLOPES...UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40

CORRIDOR. GENERALLY...H85 WAA WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL THURSDAY

EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HEART OF THE CAD WILL ERODE THE WARM NOSE AND

SHOULD YIELD AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF SLEET ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS

DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURGING COLD AIR SHOULD

PROVIDE COLD THERMAL PROFILES...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF FOOTHILL SNOW

DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRI.

AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE ACROSS

NRN GA...PROVIDING A DEEPER WARM NOSE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS

AND NE GA. HOWEVER...THE BL ACROSS THE NC ZONES WILL MAINTAIN

REINFORCING CAA. A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN PROFILE DEVELOPS NORTH THE

NC/SC LINE DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN LINE

WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NRN NC MTNS BY MID DAY.

THE PEAK H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA

ON FRI...PEAKING AROUND 18Z. THE ADDED FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN A

PERIOD OF MODERATE FZRA ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY 0Z SAT...DAMAGING FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNIFOUR

EAST ACROSS THE UPPER I-77 CORRIDOR...NORTH OF LAKE NORMAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AS

THE CENTER OF A CLOSED H5 LOW TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GRADUALLY...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW...RESULTING IN CAA

ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW

FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD INCREASE

FRIDAY EVENING...THEN REMAINING STEADY OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES

THROUGH SAT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEARLY A

FOOT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF AVERY COUNTY...TO 5 TO 8 INCHES

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE I-40

CORRIDOR.

Individual zones can be found here:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=nc&prodtype=zone#ZFPGSP

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Oh, yeah, I'm definitely preparing. Going to gas up the generator tomorrow. With the wind, potential ice, and wet snow, I expect power outages.

AFD from Greenville

By 0z Sat...damaging freezing rain is expected across the unifour east across the upper I-77 Corridor...North of Lake Norman. 

 

AFD from Raleigh

However... most impacts in this region will be from the freezing rain as we will see a nice warm nose develop by Friday middle to late morning.

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Latest update from RAH. Quite long.

The EPS is really impressive, too.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK

INTO THE WEEKEND...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY. A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY INTO OUR REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO

SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN... ALONG WITH A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW BY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE... A 1026-1028 MB SURFACE HIGH

IS EXPECTED TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC... EXTENDING

SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER

SOME... ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY... AND

RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVENTUAL PRIMARY COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER OF

THE TWO... WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

HOWEVER... THE GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH IS TRACK OF THE

SYSTEM TOO. THE LATEST NAM IS SIMILAR... BUT KEEPS SURFACE TEMPS A

LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER... WITH THE OVERALL TREND TO A

COLDER THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... IT IS BECOMING

INCREASINGLY LIKELY A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SOME

WINTER WX WITH THIS SYSTEM... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST

PIEDMONT EXPERIENCING A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL... SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS

THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

WITH POSSIBLY SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER

LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION... WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO

LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH... FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WE EXPECT A MIX BAG

OF WINTERY P-TYPES... ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

POSSIBLY BECOMING ALL RAIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER... WITH A DECENT

SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ACROSS THIS AREA ITS STILL UP IN THE AIR HOW

SEVERE THE WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME

ICE ACCRUAL... ALONG WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET AND SNOW ON FRIDAY

MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN LAST...

AND RESULTANT HOW MUCH ICE ACCRUAL WILL WE HAVE (ADVISORY OR

WARNING). HOWEVER... MOST IMPACTS IN THIS REGION WILL BE FROM THE

FREEZING RAIN AS WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM NOSE DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MID

TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT WE WILL TURN OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN

ON FRIDAY EVENING... BEFORE WE SEE THE THE 850-700 MB LAYER BEGIN TO

COOL AGAIN WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...

COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW

FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IF WE ARE ABLE TO SATURATE THE -10 TO -20

DEGREES C LAYER OF THE ATMO SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...

WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST... WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AS PRECIP

BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... THEN TURN TO JUST

PLAIN RAIN BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING... CONTINUING INTO THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES). WE COULD SEE A

LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY ACROSS FOR OUR FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN

LOCATIONS AS WELL... WILL ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT

THIS TIME.

IN ADDITIONS TO THE THREAT FOR WINTER WX... LIQUID EQUIVALENT

AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE... WITH TOTALS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES.

THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MORE

RIVER FLOODING.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPS... LOW AND HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND

FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE QPF AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EXPECT

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH FOR

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH

FREEZING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30

NW TO THE MID 40S FAR SE. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE

PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO

THE UPPER 30S FAR SE/E. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF

WRAP AROUND PRECIP/MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM

THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

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AFD from Greenville

By 0z Sat...damaging freezing rain is expected across the unifour east across the upper I-77 Corridor...North of Lake Norman.

AFD from Raleigh

However... most impacts in this region will be from the freezing rain as we will see a nice warm nose develop by Friday middle to late morning.

At this time it appears GSP expects the freezing precipitation to remain in the higher elevations and across and above the I-40 corridor towards I-77 north of Lake Norman.

It will be interesting to see the upcoming graphics.

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Update Significant chances for ice storm warning criteria for the heart of the Piedmont Triad.

 

60% chance of half inch of ice or more Winston to Greensboro area

 

80% chance Ice Storm Warning Criteria around High Point NC

 

No less than 40% chance Ice Storm Warning Criteria for places like Asheville, Boone, Pilot Mountain, Durham, Charlotte area, Upstate South Carolina

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