Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The reason for the move north with the jackpot amounts is the 12z actually captured the low a little faster upon review. That won't be nailed down quite yet but the initial slug of precip prior to the deform band did trend south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd expect Winter Storm Watches to go up for a lot of areas tomorrow afternoon if nothing changes too much. I was just thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The reason for the move north with the jackpot amounts is the 12z actually captured the low a little faster upon review. That won't be nailed down quite yet but the initial slug of precip prior to the deform band did trend south and colder. Yeah, the deformation band set up to our north this time, it looked like. Those things are precarious. We really won't know where it will set up until it happens, IMO. Just recall the February 2014 storm. The Euro was printing out a pretty potent one with the ULL prior to the storm, but its placement differed run by run and in the end it set up in the foothills and SW VA and delivered the goods. Of course, if we can get 12"+ without having to depend on the deformation band, then that's all the better, anyways. GSO's QPF was 2.3" this run, so a bit below last run's insane 2.7", but not by much. The evolution of this run was a lot more comfortable, however, and looked a lot more favorable for snow (and I doubt we even get any ZR, but some IP in the times we mix). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the euro is not alone...check out the arpege Whoa my God. A little colder and continued south trends. 30" totals are definitely on the table with a crawler depiction like what's being spit out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's the Temps during the storm on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mid atlantic has been talking about wind a lot, is there any serious wind threat from this storm here? Could blizzard watches be possibly posted in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking over the Euro the last couple of runs I would not be shocked as Chris (Delta) mentioned for it to go even further south on it's next run. ULL's always have a trick up their sleeve and with this setup and the trends it looks more to favor our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mid atlantic has been talking about wind a lot, is there any serious wind threat from this storm here? Could blizzard watches be possibly posted in NC? Verbatim, gusts are in the 40s (in knots... so higher in MPH) at hr 84 and 90 across a good portion of NC and in the 30s the frame before that. The previous run was similar. I believe gusts higher than 35 MPH are technically blizzard criteria, though I don't know if it'll actually happen like that. I've never seen it happen in my time following the weather here which makes me a bit doubtful, but I guess there's always a first. EDIT: Jburns has it... sustained winds above 35 MPH. The Euro isn't that far off that (gusts into the mid to upper 20s MPH at times, but isn't quite there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim, gusts are in the 40s (in knots... so higher in MPH) at hr 84 and 90 across a good portion of NC and in the 30s the frame before that. The previous run was similar. I believe gusts higher than 35 MPH are technically blizzard criteria, though I don't know if it'll actually happen like that. I've never seen it happen in my time following the weather here which makes me a bit doubtful, but I guess there's always a first. March 93 was close I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 However everyone still calling Euro the outlier and GFS more consistent welcome to opposite land Crazy, isn't it? We all know the GFS scored a coup with last week's system but one of its weaknesses shines brightly this time. It's inability to recognize CAD and hence plows SFC lows straight through wedges (and/or breaks wedges down too quickly) Crazy today how the 12z EURO AND ITS ENSEMBLES pretty much were locked step with each other, yet something is wrong, and with support from about every other guidance in the world. Still 3 days away but with many of the major mets that cater to the NE clientel, somehow find a way to discount the TRENDS every single model has displayed for many consecutive model runs. Sorry about ranting a bit but we have seen several clear cut things 1. Colder trends as guidance recognizes (plays catchup to the wedging) 2. With 1, positions of the players correct themselves as SFC lows do not plow through established wedges 3. More separation to allow the ULL to remain a little further south and delay the phase, then bombing after transference to the offshore low (which will probably left turn in the Mid Atlantic) as the SFC low and ULL become a bit stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 March 93 was close I think Yeah, I know there were Blizzard Warnings in the foothills and mountains, but I do not believe here (though we mixed with rain at times despite still getting 6" of snow). I'd like to see it once. But if Atlanta can get a Blizzard Warning (March '93), I have to assume it's possible here given the right unlikely setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 March 93 was close I thinkHickory had a blizzard warning, I was only 7 but still have vivid mental images from that storm.Edit - James I think you'd be close as shown. 3 hours of heavy snow and 35 mph wind is certainly possible going by the depicted model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim, gusts are in the 40s (in knots... so higher in MPH) at hr 84 and 90 across a good portion of NC and in the 30s the frame before that. The previous run was similar. I believe gusts higher than 35 MPH are technically blizzard criteria, though I don't know if it'll actually happen like that. I've never seen it happen in my time following the weather here which makes me a bit doubtful, but I guess there's always a first. Sustained winds of 35. Here's the definition ........ considerable falling or blowing snow, winds in excess of 35 mph sustained and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I lived in High Point during the blizzard of '93 and vividly remember Blizzard Warnings as far east as Guilford (and perhaps Alamance). However, I don't remember if the conditions actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sustained winds of 35. Here's the definition ........ considerable falling or blowing snow, winds in excess of 35 mph sustained and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours.... Ah, my mistake. In that case, sustained winds get above 20 knots a few times, but never to blizzard criteria (per the 00z Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the damn NE crowd is pissy..they are hammering me on Twitter...I am like the euro did TREND south for the system as a whole...I don't care about NE....I care about the South and it is def. further south this run...all of them are...I even posted some pics.. The GFS is still so far lost its funny as hell. CMC: Tonights run GFS Tonights run: EURO Tonight's Run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Van Denton came on the air Saturday morning around 9 or so and announced that blizzard warning was in effect. I don't remember all of the counties, but I do specifically remember Guilford was included. That as the only blizzard warning in Guilford country in my lifetime (since 1966). I'm in Vegas until Saturday. Doubt I make it back. This is killing me!!! I've never witnessed over 10" in Guilford country. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS forecast now says 'heavy snow accumulation' for Friday night for my area. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ah, my mistake. In that case, sustained winds get above 20 knots a few times, but never to blizzard criteria (per the 00z Euro). perhaps the mountains would have higher wind speeds? This is a thinly veiled IMBY question because I plan on chasing this in Boone, it would be cool to see some non-tornado warned Scarlett to show up in NC in nws products! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Van Denton came on the air Saturday morning around 9 or so and announced that blizzard warning was in effect. I don't remember all of the counties, but I do specifically remember Guilford was included. That as the only blizzard warning in Guilford country in my lifetime (since 1966). I'm in Vegas until Saturday. Doubt I make it back. This is killing me!!! I've never witnessed over 10" in Guilford country. TW Heh, I was in Vegas a couple weeks ago and got to see a lot of snow up in the Grand Canyon! I was only 1 years old at the time of the Superstorm, so I did not remember it personally. I just forgot we were under a Blizzard Warning for that one. And, yeah, I don't think I have ever seen us top 10", either. We reached 10" in January 2002 and probably about that in 2000 (maybe a bit higher IMBY). I really would like to see 12"+ sometime. Maybe it'll happen... perhaps the mountains would have higher wind speeds? This is a thinly veiled IMBY question because I plan on chasing this in Boone, it would be cool to see some non-tornado warned Scarlett to show up in NC in nws products! Verbatim, central NC has the highest wind gusts and sustained winds. This happens as the LP moves past the OBX and bombs out. We'll see if that actually happens, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was in a blizzard warning storm in eastern NC in the late 70s. Bombing low on the back end of 2 feet of accumulation. Thank you for all the great narration during the runs today. Wow what a day of models after that euro hit at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Where are you seeing this at? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=nc&prodtype=zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And, yeah, I don't think I have ever seen us top 10", either. We reached 10" in January 2002 and probably about that in 2000 (maybe a bit higher IMBY). I really would like to see 12"+ sometime. Maybe it'll happen... I lived in ILM from infancy ('95) to 2011, Norfolk during the snow drought of 2011-2013 and Raleigh since. Never remember seeing more than about 5" (Wilmington 2010 and Raleigh 2014). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Heh, I was in Vegas a couple weeks ago and got to see a lot of snow up in the Grand Canyon! I was only 1 years old at the time of the Superstorm, so I did not remember it personally. I just forgot we were under a Blizzard Warning for that one. And, yeah, I don't think I have ever seen us top 10", either. We reached 10" in January 2002 and probably about that in 2000 (maybe a bit higher IMBY). I really would like to see 12"+ sometime. Maybe it'll happen... Verbatim, central NC has the highest wind gusts and sustained winds. This happens as the LP moves past the OBX and bombs out. We'll see if that actually happens, however. Went to the Grand Canyon yesterday. Still lots o snow. It was odd to have temps in the low to mid 40's, yet the snow didn't seem to be melting - I guess it evaporated as quickly as it melted. GC is something to see. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the damn NE crowd is pissy..they are hammering me on Twitter...I am like the euro did TREND south for the system as a whole...I don't care about NE....I care about the South and it is def. further south this run...all of them are...I even posted some pics.. The GFS is still so far lost its funny as hell. Think the NE is referring to once the low is offshore and the storm has already done its business down here. Only reason it MIGHT be further north (for up there) is thE ULL is further SOUTH down here. Because the ULL is further south allows the SFC LOW to left turn around the Eastern and NE side of the ULL. THe NE snow hounds should be happy with how the EURO's evolution of the beginnings where its digs further south initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ukmet looks like a carbon copy of the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 woke up to see the euro ensemble mean coming in looking very much like the operational run...just a tick slower in closing off the upper low but does so over alabama by 66 hours... pretty much the same with the surface low track through 78 hours. precip/thermal profiles look similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Transition of the slp and ull from tonight's euro, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The EPS mean ULL track ticked south. Looks to support the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The EPS mean ULL track ticked south. Looks to support the operational. Mean is "snowier" down to the Midlands of SC on the back-side. 12z is going to be interesting. The 2 inch+ line is creeping ever so slowly southward per run. Many more members with it here or on the doorstep. Earlier, there were 40+ members with something at all here.. i will recount and update this post. Edit: 39 members with winter weather into the midlands area... but again.. a lot more heavier ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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