NRVwxfan. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Dude this has a great shot at a nasty deform band for me and you!! maybe all the way down this way... Even Macon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Folks this looks scary for SC. One hell of an Ice storm on our hands, with snow to boot! Exactly my concern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty much the entire north half of GA, all of SC and all of NC is between 1.75 and 2.00 inches of QPF. In NC all of it is frozen one way or another. Lot of mixing going on for NC on this run, that has me a little scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 god even dc and the mid atlantic gets theirs..they get creamed afterwards. would be a storm of epic proportions thats for sure. Snow from northeast Tx to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is the craziest run I've seen for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It starts in 50 to 60 hours. This ain't no 10 day fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 As far as snow is concerned GSP 4 - 6, CLT 8 - 10, WS 12 - 15, GSO 15+, RDU, 6 - 8. Disregard the precip maps. the upper level says double that. This is a noreaster down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 850s look above 0 across most of NC at 72 hours. The one thing to note is where the ULL...that argues you for crashing temps but it always sucks hoping for dynamics...even so during the heart of it 850's crash across alot of the state once you get past 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still have snow showers at hr 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wish my WB maps weren't so slow, but the ULL is a good 100+ miles further south this run where I am at. Insanity. yup! If the ENS are pretty supportive then I really want to see JB and others try to continue to say this is wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Disregard the precip maps. the upper level says double that. This is a noreaster down south. My brain can't comprehend....if this moves one more tick south this could be state of emergency level...heck it might already be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The one thing to note is where the ULL...that argues you for crashing temps but it always sucks hoping for dynamics...even so during the heart of it 850's crash across alot of the state once you get past 75. Thanks. If I may ask, is there a good front end snow before 850s rise? I assume so but I don't want to assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Disregard the precip maps. the upper level says double that. This is a noreaster down south. That would be a sight. Wonder how much winds is with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Even Macon? won't be much, but yes...I could see some flakes fly..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is just one run, as a reminder. Not completely getting my hopes up yet.....off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 40s41 seconds ago Whoa ... that was worth staying up for ECMWF 00z lowers the boom ... 0 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet Like More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The one thing to note is where the ULL...that argues you for crashing temps but it always sucks hoping for dynamics...even so during the heart of it 850's crash across alot of the state once you get past 75. with how much vorticity is projected to be in the atmosphere, I think dynamic cooling is a much safer bet than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 god even dc and the mid atlantic gets theirs..they get creamed afterwards. would be a storm of epic proportions thats for sure. Snow from northeast Tx to the coast. Whats scarier is I could still see this tick further south a bit more...Notice how the first (northern portion of the energy) that had the old close part at H5?)...Doc is lessening that effect and hence closing off further south and the southern vort is stronger..if that continues, and the confluence stays strong, or ticks stronger...I could see this trend a bit more south!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ground zero looks like the Shenandoah Valley, as you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 with how much vorticity is projected to be in the atmosphere, I think dynamic cooling is a much safer bet than usual This is true. This is a unique situation as opposed to our usual borderline ULLs that cross. I do think many start with mixing issues which could cause huge problems with a big we heavy blanket of snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like I-40/I-85 N/W or so basically stays all-snow or close to it. So, GSO, INT, HKY, MWK, etc. Truthfully, there's probably some sleeting in there in between panels, but there's a lot of QPF to go around, too. Maybe you could make an argument for dynamics overcoming a small warm layer, too. Surface temperatures are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty much the entire north half of GA, all of SC and all of NC is between 1.75 and 2.00 inches of QPF. In NC all of it is frozen one way or another. Lot of mixing going on for NC on this run, that has me a little scared. That's a lot of moisture god even dc and the mid atlantic gets theirs..they get creamed afterwards. would be a storm of epic proportions thats for sure. Snow from northeast Tx to the coast. That's crazy That is the craziest run I've seen for the SE. One can dream right The SE crew chasing in VA would have epic stories/pictures if this were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is just one run, as a reminder. Not completely getting my hopes up yet.....off to bed. very correct sir!!! but the trends are there, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The wind behind this as it exits, is gonna leave 1000s in the dark if this bares out. Want be a powdery snow. Gonna have to test run generator tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the euro is not alone...check out the arpege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z Euro ULL track: hr 72: Around Tuscaloosa, AL hr 78: Just ESE of ATL hr 84: About halfway between GSP and CAE hr 90: Over Florence/Darlington, SC hr 96: Just west of ILM hr 102: ~75 miles ESE of Cape Lookout, NC Needless to say, the EPS will be intriguing in another hour or so. We are really getting into the range where operational models become more important, I think, but I'd still like to see if the EPS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 very correct sir!!! but the trends are there, my friend. Plus were within what about 50hrs of this starting? So we getting close and there's lots of agreement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the euro is not alone...check out the arpege This is trending great for our area lookout, or maybe not. The ice threat seems real this run... But I'll take my 3-5" from the deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Plus were within what about 50hrs of this starting? So we getting close and there's lots of agreement! I'd expect Winter Storm Watches to go up for a lot of areas tomorrow afternoon if nothing changes too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bros, no more Euro precip/data maps from Weatherbell! Mr. Maue and this site can get in trouble for them! Only show if they are posted from Ryan/JB etc on Twitter. Sorry to half-way act like a mod... but I know Ryan personally..... and Stormtracker (from this forum!) and others would like to not have them posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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