Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAVGEM completely buries folks from GSP to RIC. If the Euro shows this, I'm off to get a generator in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There was a reason jim cantore chose Richmond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z gefs also appears to be a tad east also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's the timeframe now for the storm on the GFS? It's slowed some and was wondering if it starts later Friday and is it a longer duration now. Still some timing differences but early morning hours on Firday to Friday morning/midday, SW to NE in North Carolina. By early morning I mean zero dark thirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z NAVGEM has the primary no further than AL before spinning up the secondary over the FL panhandle. The ULL cuts off over AL. That's deep. Massive deformation band parks over WNC as the low gets captured off the SE coast. That's almost unheard of. Euro on to something... And for such a progressive model, that's quite telling. Seems to me on consecutive model runs, the high is building in a little quicker and also guidance still catching up to the wedging. Also, let's take notea on just how dry the atmosphere is currently. Dewpoints at the SFC in the single digits all the way down into deep SC. That's something in itself on how much saturation will have to take place. How much evaporational cooling is a million dollar question come game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What the heck??? Garrett Bastardi Weather 44 mins · Boalsburg, PA · It is safe to say the European model is all on its own as now the 00z GFS has come way north. The Canadian Model is also well to the north. The GFS shows widespread 1-2 feet. With 2-3 feet from Northern VA to South Central PA.-GB EDIT: I guess he could be talking about after it has passed thru the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What the heck??? Garrett Bastardi Weather 44 mins · Boalsburg, PA · It is safe to say the European model is all on its own as now the 00z GFS has come way north. The Canadian Model is also well to the north. The GFS shows widespread 1-2 feet. With 2-3 feet from Northern VA to South Central PA. -GB Maybe he should leave the forecasting to his dad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still some timing differences but early morning hours on Firday to Friday morning/midday, SW to NE in North Carolina. By early morning I mean zero dark thirty. Thanks! Wasn't sure if I was reading it correctly. It's gonna be a wild ride for most of NC if we are on the edge of the snow/mix line Friday into Saturday. Who would've bet we would see a more southern trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Garrett Bastardi Weather 44 mins · Boalsburg, PA · It is safe to say the European model is all on its own as now the 00z GFS has come way north. The Canadian Model is also well to the north. The GFS shows widespread 1-2 feet. With 2-3 feet from Northern VA to South Central PA. -GB There are plenty models that say otherwise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They live in another world up north and see it evolve through a whole other prisim. Atleast with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I cropped and rotated the 00z UKMET from Meteociel.fr at hr 96 to make it easier to read: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is that the only image they have out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is that the only image they have out? The hr 72 image is restricted only to Europe (as in, you can only see the European continent, to clarify), so yes. Well, you can also see the hr 120, but that isn't really relevant. The Meteocentre maps come out in 6-hr increments up to hr 72 (detailed maps), then in 24-hr increments thereafter (which no precip or anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The hr 72 image is restricted only to Europe, so yes. Well, you can also see the hr 120, but that isn't really relevant. The Meteocentre maps come out in 6-hr increments up to hr 72 (detailed maps), then in 24-hr increments thereafter (which no precip or anything). burger should hook us up now, he is living across the pond.For some reason it's not updating on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What the heck??? Garrett Bastardi Weather 44 mins · Boalsburg, PA · It is safe to say the European model is all on its own as now the 00z GFS has come way north. The Canadian Model is also well to the north. The GFS shows widespread 1-2 feet. With 2-3 feet from Northern VA to South Central PA. -GB EDIT: I guess he could be talking about after it has passed thru the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I cropped and rotated the 00z UKMET from Meteociel.fr at hr 96 to make it easier to read: Looks like it doesn't even make it up to DC. If so, that's a big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There goes that "EURO on an island" thingy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wxrisk.com Just now · ALERT UPDATE GFS ENSEMBLES-- SHOW HUGE AREA OF 18-24 INCHES COVERING ALL OF RIC -- even to the EAST OUT TO CHO and DC ( WHAT IS AN ENSEMBLE WEATHER MODEL? Sometimes weather models produced goofy solutions!! Soooo one way of getting around that is to run the model 20 ...30... or 40.. times. The idea is based on the premise that if you run the same weather model 30 times you will get a much more probabilistic and likely scenario that will be more accurate and realistic then counting on just ONE model. so in ths case THIS GFS ensemble STRONGLY support the GFS Model and the eurorpean big snowstorm idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like it doesn't even make it up to DC. If so, that's a big shift south. Actually looks quite similar to the NAVGEM at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wx risk I'll take that 12 to 15 and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Joe Bastardi had a detailed post at 6:30pm to subscribers on why he thinks the ECMWF is wrong on the storm. It's worth a read to see how complex this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 b If e10 happened you would get a mid-atlantic meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm surprised at how many members have significant snow for NC...very telling if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Joe Bastardi had a detailed post at 6:30pm to subscribers on why he thinks the ECMWF is wrong on the storm. It's worth a read to see how complex this storm is. Yeah I read that, nothing is guaranteed no matter how it looks! I've been let down too many times..... But it's hard to believe with so many models going that way? last night GFS hardly gave me any snow, and tonight it gives 10-12 inches? IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 e10 is essentially the NAVGEM as far as storm track and precip goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm surprised at how many members have significant snow for NC...very telling if you ask me. The agreement between members is remarkable this far out, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WOW @ the runs tonight. I think I might have to re-run numbers and update my Winter weather index for Columbia, SC in the morning if Euro sticks to it's guns/gets better. Canadian run has a lot of ice (?) into the Northern Midlands. Navy model.. I don't even know.... would most likely be an accumulating bigger event for us... ensembles slowly starting to show a backend snowfall idea... 534 thicknesses even with warmer surface temps.. would still be nice to see fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 new doc is pretty close so far, maybe a smidge slower than 12z run. HR30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quite a large difference actually at 36- a lot more of a short wave in SW Texas than the previous run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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