Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If the GFS doesn't come around more I think it will just be tossed completely with all others pretty much in line with the Euro, unless Euro does something crazy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord! The Canadian Ukmet and GGEM all WAY south closer to euro? What aren't the American models seeing that the global ones are? I mean I just saw the GGEM had the ULL in central Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at Tropical Tidbits website, Balsams SW of Asheville got hit pretty hard by GFS. They're looking at 20"+. That's because it includes the 6"+ they get tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord! The Canadian Ukmet and GGEM all WAY south closer to euro? What aren't the American models seeing that the global ones are? I mean I just saw the GGEM had the ULL in central Alabama. Strength of the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 With the wind associated with this coupled with with the >.50" of ice, someone isnt going to have power for a week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's because it includes the 6"+ they get tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Crap, that's a good point. Still, I'm feeling better about GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Crap, that's a good point. Still, I'm feeling better about GFS tonight Certainly much better for WNC!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Canadian took a big shift south from its 12z run. Primary low stays over the deep south. This is good. The RGEM foretold this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sorry upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sorry upstate. Great ice storm for the Upstate SC -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Canadian took a big shift south from its 12z run. Primary low stays over the deep south. This is good. The RGEM foretold this. I just don't know if I can buy into these shifts with how remarkably consistent the GFS has actually been. It still did not really waver tonight I thought it would come more in line with euro. Yea it is more southwest so I guess it could take baby steps in subsequent runs. I know GEFS has been way better looking than the op so maybe it's just the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sorry upstate. You can clearly see the mslp transfer track, HSV to CHS then ILM. Upper level low will trail that and probably be slightly north of, splitting hairs really given the depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The line in the sand between american guidance verse the world happens at hour 54ish. The American models drift the ull into central TN earlier now southern TN due east heading verses NE previous to 0z suite. All other models send the ULL on a SE heading. They all transfer energy to the coast about same time frame. So you end up on american guidance with the atlantic low taking over off MYB/Wilmington as opposed to Charleston Savannah. By the time the atlantic low really deepens it's at our lattitude on american guidance as opposed to below our lattitude on foreign guidance. We figure out why this occurring at hour 54 well know for a fact american guidance is off its rocker or wiser. I vote the first choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonights GFS run showed the coastal low get started in the vicinity of Charleston (Much like today's euro), then it tracks near the coast up to Wilmington, Hatteras and then near south tip of Delmarva. Then it slows and does a bit of retrograde as the upper level support catches up before deeping more and slowly pulling away. Interesting. North eastern NC gets a good shot of wrap around snow into early Sunday with that solution. Would like to see it further south still with the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG... if you didn't believe the Navgem could go any more south after 18z... you were wrong!!! Anybody thirsty for an ice cold Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG... if you didn't believe the Navgem could go any more south after 18z... you were wrong!!! Anybody thirsty for an ice cold Miller A? Sign the GA crew up for a Miller A!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG... if you didn't believe the Navgem could go any more south after 18z... you were wrong!!! Anybody thirsty for an ice cold Miller A?you got the timestamp before that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Would that allow the cold air to push further down for some snow in the Coastal sc area? Looks like it would. I'd take the Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 you got the timestamp before that one? https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2016012000∏=prpτ=072&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea that shows Jan 16 ummm... Jan 2016 23rd ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim the CMC starts as freezing rain chances to a period of sleet then back to moderate freezing rain. Thats basically a page out of the Jan 96 storm here in the Charlotte area. You could have ice skated on the roads if you wanted to but some how being the dumb teenager I was I managed to navigate around in my 95 Camaro without wrecking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am going to call BS on the Canadian's double barrel surface reflection at 90hrs, that is likely going to be mid 980s parking off the VA Capes as the system stacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ummm... Jan 2016 23rd ........ Oops my bad I looked at that wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z NAVGEM has the primary no further than AL before spinning up the secondary over the FL panhandle. The ULL cuts off over AL. That's deep. Massive deformation band parks over WNC as the low gets captured off the SE coast. That's almost unheard of. Euro on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy *****.... please be right just once.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ^ I remember it scored a few coups last year but it's usually a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy *****.... please be right just once.... Dude, I hope it verifies for you! I would take my token 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z gefs is coming in further south and looks to be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy *****.... please be right just once.... This is quite similar to the 12z Euro just a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's the timeframe now for the storm on the GFS? It's slowed some and was wondering if it starts later Friday and is it a longer duration now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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