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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Canadian took a big shift south from its 12z run. Primary low stays over the deep south. This is good. The RGEM foretold this.

I just don't know if I can buy into these shifts with how remarkably consistent the GFS has actually been. It still did not really waver tonight I thought it would come more in line with euro. Yea it is more southwest so I guess it could take baby steps in subsequent runs. I know GEFS has been way better looking than the op so maybe it's just the op.

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The line in the sand between american guidance verse the world happens at hour 54ish. The American models drift the ull into central TN earlier now southern TN due east heading verses NE previous to 0z suite. All other models send the ULL on a SE heading. They all transfer energy to the coast about same time frame. So you end up on american guidance with the atlantic low taking over off MYB/Wilmington as opposed to Charleston Savannah. By the time the atlantic low really deepens it's at our lattitude on american guidance as opposed to below our lattitude on foreign guidance. We figure out why this occurring at hour 54 well know for a fact american guidance is off its rocker or wiser. I vote the first choice.

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Tonights GFS run showed the coastal low get started in the vicinity of Charleston (Much like today's euro), then it tracks near the coast up to Wilmington, Hatteras and then near south tip of Delmarva. Then it slows and does a bit of retrograde as the upper level support catches up before deeping more and slowly pulling away. Interesting. North eastern NC gets a good shot of wrap around snow into early Sunday with that solution.

 

Would like to see it further south still with the phase.

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Verbatim the CMC starts as freezing rain chances to a period of sleet then back to moderate freezing rain. Thats basically a page out of the Jan 96 storm here in the Charlotte area. You could have ice skated on the roads if you wanted to but some how being the dumb teenager I was I managed to navigate around in my 95 Camaro without wrecking it. :sled:

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The 0z NAVGEM has the primary no further than AL before spinning up the secondary over the FL panhandle. The ULL cuts off over AL.  That's deep.

 

Massive deformation band parks over WNC as the low gets captured off the SE coast. That's almost unheard of. Euro on to something...

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