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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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This thing is really wrapping up and sending a lot of snow showers down into TN/NC/SC/N GA.

 

Colder than last run at the surface.  The Triad and the I-40 corridor stay all-frozen, albeit just barely, verbatim (went over to rain before on the GFS).  And it still may not be capturing the full effect of the CAD (as usual).  The Euro had temps in the mid to upper 20s.

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At this point its all model arguing which isnt that great this far out. Tomorrow we get more data:

 

"The upper-level support for the Friday/Saturday is just now coming on shore along the west coast. That's important because, beginning with this evening's launches, the twice-daily weather balloons launched from the locations on this map will sample the atmosphere in and around the disturbance, giving the computer models much better data to use. The model runs we'll have data from tomorrow morning will really begin to provide some clarity. Until then, know that there is potential.

Read more at http://www.wral.com/weather/#LYjR2MgQ1bBtH7zh.99"

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Guys I had a hard time keeping track of the ULL. So once you get to 69 this is right before it transfers energy over to CHS. Is the ULL depicted over NE GA where that purple precip maxima is?

It's easy to see on this map (it's the light blue circle over Tennessee for anyone unaccustomed to reading these types of maps).

gfs_z500_mslp_us_13.png

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Well, IMBY...lol it doesn't matter...I think central/North AL and GA still has some nice flurries/snow showers (like Matt was saying) on Late Friday and Sat am....I don't know of much more for these areas....NEGA and upstate I think could get a very nasty ice storm.  NC, again...wildcard.  TN, looks like maybe rain to snow.  Lets see what the DOC has to say.

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Well, IMBY...lol it doesn't matter...I think central/North AL and GA still has some nice flurries/snow showers (like Matt was saying) on Late Friday and Sat am....I don't know of much more for these areas....NEGA and upstate I think could get a very nasty ice storm. NC, again...wildcard. TN, looks like maybe rain to snow. Lets see what the DOC has to say.

I agree I've been leaning towards Ice storm for Upstate for sometime now. And thing is not only the ICE but looks like a couple inches of snow on top of it on the backend?

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NCEP needs to beef up their infrastructure for us :lmao:   NAM was a bit south and have not been able to see GFS except what was posted but looks interesting for sure.  I don't like miller Bs.  They just never seem to work out.  I will be interested to see soundings when we get into a reliable range to see if there is a warm nose higher than 850 that is going to make sleet even here.

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Ukmet at 96hrs is way south and east. Anybody have a source to get earlier panels this soon?

Edit: CMC is farther south/colder as well!!! The GFS stands alone...

Interesting with the UKMET, that does look well SE off the NC coast there. I think you have to wait til 11:45 or so to get the UKMet maps on meteocentre
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