MillerA Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From Alan on twitter Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/689118105402884096?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's way too early to start making definitive statements one way or another. We still have many model runs and with such a wide spread, it's way too early to say a certain result is definitely going to happen. Definitely, yes. But probably, no. Problem is seldom does the MA trend away from a possibly historic snowstorm 100-120 hours out (it's happened maybe once in the last 10 years). Despite the spread, you see a general trend here and the large majority of important models and ensembles pumping out snowfall (large means, say 12"+) for the DC/DelMarVa area. In my opinion, you can essentially discount SC non-mountain areas from getting any wintry wx (besides backside stuff) at this time. This is pretty much a Central NC to Northern NC wishcast at this point. Sure, we have tomorrow to sample the wave, I just don't see it trending away from DCA. They may be setting up for another 09-10 repeat with another to end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 gives a decent backend snowfall for much of nc at least, but when DC is getting 20"+ to your north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 23m23 minutes ago This run of the GFS has a similar surface low track, but a little stronger damming signature ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not the euro or EPS. Yeah I think they have the low central GA last time I looked. Too far north imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I may be remembering wrong, but growing up our area of Catawba County used to do pretty good with these setups as opposed to just 20 miles south. Next two days of model runs will be interesting. Yea definitely. There's a pretty significant different b/n NW Catawba County/Alexander and the areas down towards lake norman. Especially in big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Definitely, yes. But probably, no. Problem is seldom does the MA trend away from a possibly historic snowstorm 100-120 hours out (it's happened maybe once in the last 10 years). Despite the spread, you see a general trend here and the large majority of important models and ensembles pumping out snowfall (large means, say 12"+) for the DC/DelMarVa area. In my opinion, you can essentially discount SC non-mountain areas from getting any wintry wx (besides backside stuff) at this time. This is pretty much a Central NC to Northern NC wishcast at this point. Sure, we have tomorrow to sample the wave, I just don't see it trending away from DCA. They may be setting up for another 09-10 repeat with another to end the month. I'll definitely take a 09 repeat here. 15 inches from the DEC 09 storm. This one is definitely looking good for foothills and mtns in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From one run? Yea and they not looking at the backside of it as possibly giving SC a inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Those hoping for a SLP that tracks along the gulf coast and heads up the coast are going to be dissapointed. This is not that type of setup. With a strong closed low aloft coming from the missouri/tn valley, there will be a weak SLP reflection over central al/ms/ga/southern tn. That will then die out and transfer to the coastal low. This usually means a mixed bag of precip. This never results in a pure snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'll definitely take a 09 repeat here. 15 inches from the DEC 09 storm. This one is definitely looking good for foothills and mtns in NC Yeah this setup looks great for the Foothills and the Mountains I remember that storm(09) here In Valdese just west of Hickory and got over 11inches. So there is no need for anyone in this area to take a cliff dive IMO over one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Those hoping for a SLP that tracks along the gulf coast and heads up the coast are going to be dissapointed. This is not that type of setup. With a strong closed low aloft coming from the missouri/tn valley, there will be a weak SLP reflection over central al/ms/ga/southern tn. That will then die out and transfer to the coastal low. This usually means a mixed bag of precip. This never results in a pure snow scenario. Stated perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As someone else said, this type of storm usually transfers to a coastal low and leaves areas of the piedmont in a precipitation hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Canadian has a major ice storm for the NC CAD areas. It showed rain in past runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's the fly in the ointment. If that western low goes away, we get much more snow. Yeah I cant think of anything ever good coming from a 997 low over eastern Tenn......need that main low to trend south a lot and stay positively tilted till the florida panhandle....all in all it would take a big changes ( and ones we usually dont see) in the models to get this where we want it so its looking bleak IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Who has jumped ship? Name names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You guys will laugh but the 12 z GFS was colder on the surface for N. NC. It looks like a significant amount of precip with temps near freezing across N. NC zone. Hour 96: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Toggle back to the 6z to see the difference in surface temps and dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12Z CMC crushes CAD areas of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z UKMET looks like a Miller B based on the 24-hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry, the UKIE has shifted north- surface low in NW GA at 96 hours, then off the Delmarva at 120. There is now almost no support for the GOM coast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12Z CMC crushes CAD areas of NC No joke. The better maps are out now and it's 1.5"+ all-frozen for I-85/west with a lot of that in the form of ice. EDIT: I-85/west in NC, specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No joke. The better maps are out now and it's 1.5"+ all-frozen for I-85/west with a lot of that in the form of ice. How far west and south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry, the UKIE has shifted north- surface low in NW GA at 96 hours, then off the Delmarva at 120. There is now almost no support for the GOM coast solution.all hail the gfs. Another frustrating thing about this is the gfs has shown basically the same solution since hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No joke. The better maps are out now and it's 1.5"+ all-frozen for I-85/west with a lot of that in the form of ice. When you say I85 west are meaning upstate too or just NC? People gets confused with this because I85 runs west all way back through GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When you say I85 west are meaning upstate too or just NC? People gets confused with this because I85 runs west all way back through GA.No. This is and continues to be a NC threat, even maybe N NC and Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If the euro and its ensembles come in with this storm going primary over delmarva our chances look gloomy for mst of NC and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No. This is and continues to be a NC threat, even maybe N NC and Mtns. More of an I-85/I-40 north and west threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No. This is and continues to be a NC threat, even maybe N NC and Mtns. So you ask someone early if their statement was off one model run. Now you going with what just todays models are showing? Dude make up your mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For RDU on the 12z GFS, Coolwx.com shows 2.38" total accumulation with .184" liquid equivalent snow on the back end of the run. Also shows .18" zr to begin the storm. GSO is about the same total, but .361" back end snow and no zr. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys I posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, however I do have a question in reference to the progression of the vort in TN and KY. If that thing passes overhead of me will that hurt me or will the strengthening effect of the primary low compensate for it passing overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC 12z Quick read sketch out... Surface Dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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