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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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It's way too early to start making definitive statements one way or another. We still have many model runs and with such a wide spread, it's way too early to say a certain result is definitely going to happen.

Definitely, yes. But probably, no. Problem is seldom does the MA trend away from a possibly historic snowstorm 100-120 hours out (it's happened maybe once in the last 10 years). Despite the spread, you see a general trend here and the large majority of important models and ensembles pumping out snowfall (large means, say 12"+) for the DC/DelMarVa area. In my opinion, you can essentially discount SC non-mountain areas from getting any wintry wx (besides backside stuff) at this time. This is pretty much a Central NC to Northern NC wishcast at this point. Sure, we have tomorrow to sample the wave, I just don't see it trending away from DCA. They may be setting up for another 09-10 repeat with another to end the month.

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I may be remembering wrong, but growing up our area of Catawba County used to do pretty good with these setups as opposed to just 20 miles south. Next two days of model runs will be interesting.

Yea definitely. There's a pretty significant different b/n NW Catawba County/Alexander and the areas down towards lake norman. Especially in big dogs. 

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Definitely, yes. But probably, no. Problem is seldom does the MA trend away from a possibly historic snowstorm 100-120 hours out (it's happened maybe once in the last 10 years). Despite the spread, you see a general trend here and the large majority of important models and ensembles pumping out snowfall (large means, say 12"+) for the DC/DelMarVa area. In my opinion, you can essentially discount SC non-mountain areas from getting any wintry wx (besides backside stuff) at this time. This is pretty much a Central NC to Northern NC wishcast at this point. Sure, we have tomorrow to sample the wave, I just don't see it trending away from DCA. They may be setting up for another 09-10 repeat with another to end the month.

I'll definitely take a 09 repeat here. 15 inches from the DEC 09 storm. This one is definitely looking good for foothills and mtns in NC

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Those hoping for a SLP that tracks along the gulf coast and heads up the coast are going to be dissapointed. This is not that type of setup. With a strong closed low aloft coming from the missouri/tn valley, there will be a weak SLP reflection over central al/ms/ga/southern tn. That will then die out and transfer to the coastal low. This usually means a mixed bag of precip. This never results in a pure snow scenario. 

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I'll definitely take a 09 repeat here. 15 inches from the DEC 09 storm. This one is definitely looking good for foothills and mtns in NC

Yeah this setup looks great for the Foothills and the Mountains I remember that storm(09) here In Valdese just west of Hickory and got over 11inches. So there is no need for anyone in this area to take a cliff dive IMO over one model.

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Those hoping for a SLP that tracks along the gulf coast and heads up the coast are going to be dissapointed. This is not that type of setup. With a strong closed low aloft coming from the missouri/tn valley, there will be a weak SLP reflection over central al/ms/ga/southern tn. That will then die out and transfer to the coastal low. This usually means a mixed bag of precip. This never results in a pure snow scenario. 

 

Stated perfectly.

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That's the fly in the ointment. If that western low goes away, we get much more snow.

 

Yeah I cant think of anything ever good coming from a 997 low over eastern Tenn......need that main low to trend south a lot and stay positively tilted till the florida panhandle....all in all it would take a big changes ( and ones we usually dont see)  in the models to get this where we want it so its looking bleak IMO...

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Guys I posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, however I do have a question in reference to the progression of the vort in TN and KY. If that thing passes overhead of me will that hurt me or will the strengthening effect of the primary low compensate for it passing overhead?

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