superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS still shows a big ice and snowstorm for N NC. Let's not act like it's showing a warm rainstorm or anything. It would still be a good hit for many on this board. It just isn't a historic drubbing like on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS still shows a big ice and snowstorm for N NC. Let's not act like it's showing a warm rainstorm or anything. It would still be a good hit for many on this board. It just isn't s historic drubbing like on the Euro. Not for the southern piedmont. It's night and day difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The gfs has always moved in trends. It is rare to see it completely flip/flop to the euro in 1 run. This is pretty normal thing for the gfs. With the pacific wave onshore tonight, i think the 00z runs will probably be the most important of the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question has anyone ever seen the Euro show anything like this before? Nam yes Euro for me NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If Euro holds serve, or even ticks South tonight, I think you will see AFDs and local mets change their tunes ! I guess tonight's 0z GFS and Euro, will be biggest run of the winter?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question has anyone ever seen the Euro show anything like this before? Nam yes Euro for me NO The closest situation I can remember being only 3 days out was December 2000 for Raleigh. That was the ETA(modern day NAM) showing like 3 feet in raleigh. Of course that busted big time. As far as the euro showing 30 inches of snow this close... That is pretty much unheard of in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The closest situation I can remember being only 3 days out was December 2000 for Raleigh. That was the ETA(modern day NAM) showing like 3 feet in raleigh. Of course that busted big time. As far as the euro showing 30 inches of snow this close is pretty much unheard of in NC. Maybe for the 96 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would think the 12z runs would surely have the most data in them. The 00z runs will have enough time to have the data included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think john wow has an archive of gary gray discussions before that 96 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe for the 96 blizzard. I didn't start following the models until around 99. I have heard that too about the euro and jan 96. The setups are pretty close, so I could see it. The euro is normally at its best in these types of scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would think the 12z runs would surely have the most data in them. The 00z runs will have enough time to have the data included? 00z won't have all the data but it will have some. By 00z the wave is barely coming ashore, it may be sampled a bit but the full s/w will be sampled by the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think john wow has an archive of gary gray discussions before that 96 blizzard. http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z NAVGEM holds serve and obliterates NC yet again. It actually keeps the northern tip of Virginia bone dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think john wow has an archive of gary gray discussions before that 96 blizzard. I remember the 96 storm well, and for us that lived in the Triad area might remember Rob Roseman. He had a slogan Rob was right. Because he nailed the amounts. But i still cannot remember the Euro being this insane and leading the way with the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I didn't start following the models until around 99. I have heard that too about the euro and jan 96. The setups are pretty close, so I could see it. The euro is normally at its best in these types of scenarios. This is what crowned Euro king in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/ Everyone needs to go read this it is amazing how close these storms are similar to each other not perfect but close. Thanks for sharing WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A bit of Googling turned this up on the 1996 event. There are some 3 & 4 day out Euro maps down deep in it. PDF: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwix-_-y_bbKAhXI4CYKHbzgBAQQFggkMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fom%2Fassessments%2Fpdfs%2Fbz-mrg.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHGSlbVKNYl54g7ruKzar7b7esHwQ&cad=rja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18z GEFS looks a tick colder compared to the 12z GEFS. Maybe a bit faster, as well. Not a huge difference by any means, but a continuation of the trend.12-13" moves into the a Triad on the mean on the AmericanWx Model Suite, though that might include IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Fishel just showed rain/snow line with isobars overlaid. rain/snow line moves north of RDU at 7AM Friday. Temperature goes up to 38 at 7PM. But then saturday morning it goes below RDU again and he says that's when we could get most of the frozen precip...saturdya..not friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18z GEFS looks a tick colder compared to the 12z GEFS. Maybe a bit faster, as well. Not a huge difference by any means, but a continuation of the trend. 12-13" moves into the a Triad on the mean on the AmericanWx Mode Suite, though that might include IP/ZR. Yeah, the 18z GEFS has the same trend. The primary low doesn't reach as far north and is colder ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hm, most members of the 18z GEFS have some kind of backend Winter weather in the Midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't sleep on the front end potential for the north central Piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RDU looks to be a cold rain until Saturday morning...if I'm reading things right? Or a mix at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, the 18z GEFS has the same trend. The primary low doesn't reach as far north and is colder ahead of the storm. Yeah, that seemed to be the main difference. The transfer (around CHS) and such looked about the same on the mean. The 18z NAVGEM is really crazy, haha. I really shouldn't look at it, but I can't help it. Complete crushjob and very little precip gets up to NOVA. I'm sure that won't happen, but it continues to somehow shift further south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From the Keeping it Real Department of the Former I85/U.S 74 Weather Weenie Association, this caution: The 18z GFS doesn't actually show a winter event for the Charlotte/Shelby/GSP corridor. Per soundings, it never gets below 34.8 in any of those spots. Heck, Hickory only gets to -.1C (31.8F) for just 3 hours before going above freezing the rest of the way, save for an inch or 2 of backside powder at the end. My point is not to be a Debbie Downer, but rather to suggest that the GFS, while trending the right way, could still be right. I-40 will I'm sure be fine, but for the I-85/US 74 crowd, anything is still possible from the Euro's cataclysm to the GFS's long, wet, soaking snoozer. EDIT: And yes, I'm aware the models struggle with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, that seemed to be the main difference. The transfer (around CHS) and such looked about the same on the mean. The 18z NAVGEM is really crazy, haha. I really shouldn't look at it, but I can't help it. Complete crushjob and very little precip gets up to NOVA. I'm sure that won't happen, but it continues to somehow shift further south with each run. Where are you getting this 18z Navy model at? I can not find anything but the 12z anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, that seemed to be the main difference. The transfer (around CHS) and such looked about the same on the mean. The 18z NAVGEM is really crazy, haha. I really shouldn't look at it, but I can't help it. Complete crushjob and very little precip gets up to NOVA. I'm sure that won't happen, but it continues to somehow shift further south with each run. I'm not entirely counting out this scenario actually. That is, the primary dies out before it even reaches TN and the secondary forms over FL/GA and quickly bombs. That suddenly builds heavy precip shield over WNC like what you see in noreasters over the MA/NE. That's what the Euro and Navgem do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone mind posting up the snowfall totals and ICE(the mean) for GEFS? For the NC Foothills? Can someone please post the GEFS maps? Here is the clown. Where are you getting this 18z Navy model at? I can not find anything but the 12z anywhere. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All It's an obscure site, but it gets the NAVGEM much quicker than any other site I know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not entirely counting out this scenario actually. That is, the primary dies out before it even reaches TN and the secondary forms over FL/GA and quickly bombs. That suddenly builds heavy precip shield over WNC like what you see in noreasters over the MA/NE. That's what the Euro and Navgem do. Possible, but how many times does that actually happen? Not much imo. This thing will come north once it reforms. It almost has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RDU looks to be a cold rain until Saturday morning...if I'm reading things right? Or a mix at least? Yes, once energy is transferred offshore and near-surface flow becomes more northerly/northeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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