Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Already trending colder ahead of the system by 39hrs 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO readout for HKY is so insane it's funny... Never seen anything like that. If this hold through tomorrow evening will def' be taking off friday and chasing. No way I can miss something like this. I am still very worried about sleet and freezing rain isues though, given the type of system this is. The SLP is too far north initially and too close to the coast for mixing not to occur. Will be fun to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z gfs south trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 not seeing much difference in vort placement, 18z may be a little more south although not sure how it translates downstream...may be a 12z redoux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 not seeing much difference in vort placement, 18z may be a little more south although not sure how it translates downstream...may be a 12z redoux. precip field and sfc low farther south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For the record, the blizzard of 96 still ranks high in the analog rankings. #2 at 72 hour and #1 at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 precip field and sfc low farther south a bit slightly more positively tilted through @63, may be negligible. Surface will be the difference this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For the record, the blizzard of 96 still ranks high in the analog rankings. #2 at 72 hour and #1 at 96. I don't see anything that will change that as we move closer to the event. Looks VERY similar in setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For the record, the blizzard of 96 still ranks high in the analog rankings. #2 at 72 hour and #1 at 96.Jeremy where getting the analog data per hour at? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 slightly more positively tilted through @63, may be negligible. Surface will be the difference this run. very close but it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ULL looks a bit more SW over TN than the 18z @75hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jeremy where getting the analog data per hour at? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F072&rundt=2016011912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hasn't fully jumped to the Euro but it's trending to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F072&rundt=2016011912Thanks . Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS transfers to CHS while Euro does it over S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Your saying dry air skips the upstate? In more genuine Miller-B type systems, the moisture transfer often happens between the eastern slopes of the Apps and the midlands. I can't tell you how many times the upstate has been "leap-frogged" by the moisture when this occurs. Its not a true miller B on the Euro or a true miller A for that matter...it has an energy transfer but not typical of a miller B Which makes this system more of a riddle. A true Miller-A should entail a low starting it's NE track from within the GOM, tracking ideally over the panhandle and GA/SC coasts, yeah? As of right now, it's still modeled too far north to be an actual Miller-A, and oddly too far south to be a true Miller-B. I'm questioning the effect of the transfer as it relates to Upstate SC to be perfectly honest. It's only my opinion, but I believe rn/zr is still the best precip call south of the NC line (with maybe the northern parts of GV/PK/OC Counties being an exception), primarily because [A] I don't trust moisture transfer situations and I don't see it going far enough south to give a solid +/- error buffer for this area - not yet at least. And never discount the NW trend as a possibility. It's a thing for a reason. I'm just trying to understand this as it evolves. I'm not a met, just seasoned in Upstate snowstorm experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hasn't fully jumped to the Euro but it's trending to it. Yeah that was close. 00z should be very interesting tonight, we'll see if it caves. Hopefully 18z GEFS holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS transfers to CHS while Euro does it over S GA Stepping towards the Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS transfers to CHS while Euro does it over S GA Is that the reason for less precipitation for the western part of NC on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is that the reason for less precipitation for the western part of NC on the gfs? I would not worry about precip totals on any model just yet, it will be tomorrow night before we have a better handle on amounts IMO. Just watch the trends of the track and temp trnds, the moisture will take care of itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is that the reason for less precipitation for the western part of NC on the gfs?upper low goes into ky/Indiana on the gfs then rolls through Virginia. The euro keeps the upper low much farther south and then brings in thru north georgia and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Funny how people put their own spin on the model output, in the MA they say the GFS stayed pretty much the same while here some say it went South headed towards the EURO. As was mentioned above, whichever models handles the upper low will have the closest solution as to where it transfers to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not really seeing any big steps toward the Euro here. What am I missing? 12Z GFS @ 78: 18z GFS @ 72: 12z GFS @ 84: 18z GFS @ 78: The other time frames looked similar too. Toggling between images, there are very subtle differences. I suppose the 18z is the slightest tick south, but it looks like noise to me...unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hrs 96-102 on 12z Euro look a little suspect to me. Low tracks from 150mi due east of Morehead city NW right into Virginia beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 keep reading that all models are trending south, if this is the case why isn't there more of a snow talk instead of some rain especially for NC? I do read where some experts say wnc will start as snow and stay snow the whole event but then the weather on TV says something different as well as GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not really seeing any big steps toward the Euro here. What am I missing? 12Z GFS @ 78: 12z78.gif 18z GFS @ 72: 18z72.gif 12z GFS @ 84: 18z GFS @ 78: The other time frames looked similar too. Toggling between images, there are very subtle differences. I suppose the 18z is the slightest tick south, but it looks like noise to me...unless I'm missing something. Open both images into tabs and tab between the two. look at the placement of the ULL center, you should find your answer. Yes, not a big difference, but 18z is south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 keep reading that all models are trending south, if this is the case why isn't there more of a snow talk instead of some rain especially for NC? I do read where some experts say wnc will start as snow and stay snow the whole event but then the weather on TV says something different as well as GSP. Uncertainty combined with being conservative to save face in case of a bust. Nearly all TV news weather does this. If and when a large-scale winter event becomes more likely, they'll start saying differently. 18z GFS snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Uncertainty combined with being conservative to save face in case of a bust. Nearly all TV news weather does this. If and when a large-scale winter event becomes more likely, they'll start saying differently. 18z GFS snowfall: That's does look further south with the snow coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Open both images into tabs and tab between the two. look at the placement of the ULL center, you should find your answer. Yes, not a big difference, but 18z is south of 12z. I did that. Best I could tell is that the very center at 12z tracked just north of the NC/VA border before lifting NE. At 18z, it tracked right along it. It was a big circle, so eyeballing the exact center is error prone. It looked south, but not by much....just making sure we're all on the same page and I wasn't missing some big jump or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Model war drama continues. GFS holds and EURO just keeps us weenieing out. Who will win? GFS needs to break tomorrow or I think we're going to get real ancy. Or maybe just me. Surprised NWS doesn't included the 12Z Package into it's afternoon forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.