Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 @51 it looks like the NAM is going to pop the low a little further south in LA. Precip is more southwest of its 12z position. That energy is way more west and not going negative as early for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Diff between 18z and 12z...@60 18z NAM has 850 and 32 line near the NC/SC boarder...12z had it at NC/VA line. Also energy is slower. NAM is catching on to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agreed Burg! Hell of a nice cad area showing up all the way through NC touching SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea this is looking to put alot more people in the all snow category. As Delta said this could be a true Miller A and that would make a lot very happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eps low clusters are a thing of beauty! All over chs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM definitely colder and looks like the Euro. CAD!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The nam is just funky looking to me though with the way it wants to transfer its energy. Idk if that would be the surface come Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Latest From GSP Looking Good : .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEXTUPCOMING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. A DYNAMICTROF WILL DIG ACRS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN CLOSE OFF AND DRIFTEAST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. STRONGCYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY...WITH A1003 MB LOW REACHING THE ERN TN VALLEY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FROMTHERE...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MILLER-B LOW...WITH ASECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT INVOF MYRTLEBEACH...THEN BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT UP THE COAST FRIDAYNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND IS THE 12ZECMWF...WHICH HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW AND MOREMILLER-A-LIKE. SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT IN THIS FCST PACKAGE...THEFCST SHOWS A MORE MILLER-B TYPE IMPACT. THAT IS...A BROAD AREA OFMIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA ICE ACCUMSALONG THE NRN NC BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THE EXACT P-TYPETRANSITIONS AND THE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS WEGET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.SO POPS SHUD RAMP UP FROM SW TO NE ON THURSDAY...TO CATEGORICAL ACRSTHE ENTIRE CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITHPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG HIGH-ELEV WINDS WILL BE FROM 06ZTO 18Z FRIDAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTN...A DRY SLOT SHUD PUNCH THRU THEAREA FORM THE SOUTH...AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA TO EAST.THEN THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION-ZONE PRECIP SHUD PIVOTIN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE SHUD GRADUALLY TAPEROFF TO JUST NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHWRS BY SATURDAY MORNING...ANDTHOSE SHWRS WILL END AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.AS FOR P-TYPE AND ACCUMS...I TOOK A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELTHICKNESSES AND USED THE WINTER WX NOMOGRAM...WITH SOME MINORTWEAKS...AND STUCK CLOSE TO WPC QPF. THIS RESULTS IN MAINLY RAINTHURSDAY...THEN AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND DYNAMICAL COOLING OF THEPROFILES OCCURS...AS TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...ICE...ANDSNOW IN THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERNFRENCH BROAD VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. THEN ALL P-TYPECHANGES TO SNOW OR RA/SN MIX FRIDAY EVENING THRU SATURDAY. ACCUMSARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF P-TYPE TRANSITIONS. THE LATESTFCST HAS MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND LESS SNOW. BUT IF THE 12ZECMWF IS ON TO A NEW TREND...THEN WE MAY TREND TOWARD MORE SNOW.TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED CLOSELY TO THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT DURING THEHEAVIEST PRECIP. SO HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID40S...COOLING TO THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU NIGHT. THEN WITH THEPRECIP AND CAD ON FRIDAY TEMPS WARMING VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS INTHE 30S TO LWR 40S.FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THECOASTAL STORM WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 20S MID 30SIN THE MTNS...AND LWR-MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 20S TOMID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEENS TO UPR 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The nam is just funky looking to me though with the way it wants to transfer its energy. Idk if that would be the surface come Friday From here on out don't bother looking past 48 hours. Just watch it for trends on the energy out west and let's see what the GFS and Euro say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is still icy for CAD area, but it's close to snow. Like Burger said, watch the colder trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question for mets: How does the deform band work with an ULL that isn't a bowling ball, but rather is a part of an energy transfer setup? Don't really see a deform band being depicted by the models (I know they are often slow to pick up on those). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question for mets: How does the deform band work with an ULL that isn't a bowling ball, but rather is a part of an energy transfer setup? Don't really see a deform band being depicted by the models (I know they are often slow to pick up on those). The heaviest band of persistent precip will be on the NW side of the upper level low.....check 500mb. Even though the surface low transfers to the coast, the ULL just continues to work ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like the way it is setting up.. It is also nice that the main model suites are somewhat in agreement now. Hope they continue to trend the same.. for the sake of putting human safety at the forefront. The quicker we know what's going to happen the quicker folks can prepare. RAH is taking forever to get out their AFD again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Generators flying off the shelves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 "THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MILLER-B LOW" GSP is also not moving away from the Miller-B, hence the dry slot involvement which more often than not skips Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 "THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MILLER-B LOW" GSP is also not moving away from the Miller-B, hence the dry slot involvement which more often than not skips Upstate SC. Notice they indicated that the 12Z Euro was not part of that forecast package......I would expect big changes in the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The heaviest band of persistent precip will be on the NW side of the upper level low.....check 500mb. Even though the surface low transfers to the coast, the ULL just continues to work ENE. Thanks -- so really no difference between the deform band for this type of an ULL and others where there is no surface low transfer. Gotcha -- appreciate it -- better get some rest tonight -- going to be a LONG week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 "THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MILLER-B LOW" GSP is also not moving away from the Miller-B, hence the dry slot involvement which more often than not skips Upstate SC. I may be wrong but I do not see the upstate getting dry slotted in this! I still say the CAD will be stronger and the upstate sees a Ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On NWSChat with GSP now, the new AFD does not include the 12Z Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Generators flying off the shelves! what site are you pulling your graphics from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not a true miller B on the Euro or a true miller A for that matter...it has an energy transfer but not typical of a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SN_lover, can you link where you found that. Thanks what site are you pulling your graphics from? Coolwx.com Specifically: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=current&field=pcompare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS parallel also following a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its not a true miller B on the Euro or a true miller A for that matter...it has an energy transfer but not typical of a miller B It is a bit of a hybrid in terms of the overall synoptic development. The upstream pattern is more similar to that of a Miller-A in the sense that there is an amplifying upstream ridge with no split flow aloft but downstream you clearly have confluent flow which is typical of Miller-B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From RAH: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME WILL BE OUR FIRST NOTABLE WINTERSTORM OF 2016. THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WE DECIDED TO NOT FOCUS SO MUCHON QPF NUMBERS THAT WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODELRUNS...BUT RATHER FOCUS ON WHAT WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT WILL OCCURFROM A CLIMATOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE...WHICH IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ACLASSIC MILLER B STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SATURDAY. UNLIKE OUR BRIEF WINTRY WEATHER EPISODE THIS PASTSUNDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE PRECEDED BY COLDHIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSSMUCH OF OUR AREA AT LEAST DURING THE ONSET OF THE STORM THURSDAYNIGHT. USING CLIMATOLOGY BLENDED WITH THE MOST RECENT MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWERMISS VALLEY NEWD LATE THURSDAY...AND TRANSITION TO THE CAROLINACOAST BY FRIDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER B FASHION...BEFOREEXITING TO THE NE SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE SITUATIONS...WEUSUALLY SEE WAA-DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE...AND WITH THECOMBINATION OF ANTECEDENT NEAR-SFC COLD AIR AND EVAP COOLING IN THELOWEST 75-100MB...LIGHT PRECIP AT THE ONSET THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARSLIKELY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR FREEZINGRAIN. THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE JUST OFF THE SFC SURGESNORTHWARD AHEAD OFTHE SFC LOW...PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZINGRAIN (WHICH IN THIS CASE WOULD OCCUR IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TOSUNRISE FRIDAY)...THEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ANDNORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AND AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES FRIDAY. AS ISUSUALLY THE CASE...THE PART OF OUR CWA THAT WILL SEE FROZEN/FREEZINGPRECIP LASTING THE LONGEST...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE LATE MORNINGHOURS...WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...EVEN THOSE ZONESARE LIKELY TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE ATERNOON FRIDAY AS WARM AIRSURGES NORTHWARD.THE NEXT PHASE OF STORM WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ASCOLDER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. ASSUCH...REMAINING MOISTURE INVOF OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSSWILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA DURINGTHIS TIME...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.MANY FINER DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE AND COME INTO BETTER FOCUSAS WE GET CLOSER. BUT SUFFICE IT TO DAY...DEPENDING ON THE DURATIONOF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP COUPLED WITH QPF AMOUNTS AS WE GETCLOSER...WINTER STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELYBE WARRANTED AS WE GET CLOSER.ANOTHER CONCERN WORTH CONSIDERING IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ONFRIDAY AFTER THE CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT WETCONDITIONS THIS SEASON...IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH HEAVIER RAIN TOPRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ON THE NEUSE AND/OR TAR RIVERS. ALL SAID...ITSIMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES AS MORE SPECIFICDETAILS REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND ACCUMULATION "NUMBERS" WILL BEPRESENTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK INCREASES WITH FUTURERUNS.AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...LOOK FOR FAIR BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just Released From WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sure would be nice to get that transfer spot down around HHI instead of CHS but at this point, I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Coolwx.com Specifically: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=current&field=pcompare thanks Jon.....I forgot I cannot get that site to show graphics for KGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RAH isn't ready to jump the gun on this yet... they are waiting until later model runs to focus on amounts. I don't blame them. Anyone who has lived in central NC for a while knows that RAH is VERY conservative. As is Fishel... Fishel will probably downplay this big time tonight. Now, what I'm looking at with the models and their discussion is the warm nose. They seem to be pretty confident in Friday being mostly rain for RDU. Will this storm have such a prominent warm nose? Will the CAD stand firm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And Here Are The New Ice(FZRA) Forecast Maps From WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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