msuwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS mean looks in lock-step with the operational overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One trend I do see in the next day on the models is the leading wave moving across the lakes is trending south - that storm is what builds our HP overhead as it moves into 50/50 position. I think this is part of the reason why our storm is digging farther south as well. That's awesome because I can't tell you how many times I've been screwed by high pressure sliding out to the east or the confluence not setting up right or the block didn't materialize as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't bet against the euro and its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 agreed!! I think the GFS is screwing that up and jumping to much energy out ahead. It also prevents the primary from moving too far north and will force a transfer farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like many members have some kind of Winter weather (light) for Columbia on the backside on the Ensemble members/mean. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't bet against the euro and its ensembles No. The Euro was first crowned king by many of us with its handling of the 96 blizzard. This is a very similar setup. I'm going all Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS pretty much in lockstep with the Euro operational through 72 hrs EPS mean looks in lock-step with the operational overall. Jinx....buy me a Coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I already felt the GFS took a step towards the Euro at 12z today. Would not be surprised to see it completely fold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Key is that the Euro Ensemble trended a tick south from its prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like looking at 31 hr 18z NAM it's going to want to dig some more. The plains energy is more sharp though so I'm not sure how that will translate however the energy digging down from Rockies is more sharp to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro and EPS -- the new EE rule? No. The Euro was first crowned king by many of us with its handling of the 96 blizzard. This is a very similar setup. I'm going all Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Key is that the Euro Ensemble trended a tick south from its prior run This is correct. You watch trends from its own previous run. Then see if it follows the same overall trend as the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Key is that the Euro Ensemble trended a tick south from its prior run Yeah, looks like around 50-100 miles SE depending on the area. This is also true on the northern extent of the precip shield. For example, Pittsburgh gets a lot less this run, as does NYC and Boston. Charlottesville, Roanoke, and Blacksburg get throttled on the mean. Those look like the jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like looking at 31 hr 18z NAM it's going to want to dig some more. The plains energy is more sharp though so I'm not sure how that will translate however the energy digging down from Rockies is more sharp to my eye. That's a good thing. If this is digging down more, then this will force our storm to dig farther south as well. Looks like it's slowing down a bit too. (the plains wave). That's exactly want we need here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ryan Maue has a good comparsion on twitter on how much further south the 12z eps moved versus the 0z eps... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/689540752116875264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It also prevents the primary from moving too far north and will force a transfer farther south. Speaking to this take a look at the low locations on WB if you have access. There isn't really a tight cluster at 72. Looks like it's kind of struggling with itself to figure out where the handoff takes place. This run looks to make the transfer from either northern AL or southern TN to............................central GA! Now THAT is how you guys score! Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like looking at 31 hr 18z NAM it's going to want to dig some more. The plains energy is more sharp though so I'm not sure how that will translate however the energy digging down from Rockies is more sharp to my eye. It's sharper compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Western ridge pumped higher at 36hrs on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM stuck at 36. Thus far the energy is more sharp both in the plains and the Rockies. Let's see where it goes here in the upcoming frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I already felt the GFS took a step towards the Euro at 12z today. Would not be surprised to see it completely fold tonight. Man, that's my hope. It's the huge elephant in the room right now. It needs to go ahead and suck like we've all come to know it suck! Where did the EPS transfer the low to? Savannah, Charleston? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS mean looks in lock-step with the operational overall. and that my friend...tells me the euro is locked in!! I wouldn't still be surprised to see this drop a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'll take what the Euro spits out in this time range every single day. 3-4 days is it's wheel house. Still a lot could go wrong so people need to not get to amped just yet but wow the implications are huge if the Euro is correct. If only we had know Burger leaving would cause this I would have bought him a ticket long ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ok yea the trough axis is shifted more southwest on 39hr image comparing it to 45hr. I'm hoping this will translate to more of a dig and away from the 12z GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It also prevents the primary from moving too far north and will force a transfer farther south. agreed! Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if this trends to a full Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 @42 you can def. see that the 18z NAM is sharper and diggier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 She's gonna dig this time for sure. You can see it up in Wyoming the way the axis has shifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm calling it now. Looking at 45hr this is gonna be a big run for the nam that entire orientation of the energy has shifted quite significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 agreed! Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if this trends to a full Miller A It's been a possibility with me watching the trends. That would likely wipe out the widespread ice issues for NC/SC over to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z NAM is going to be colder as well...though it's probably useless to look at outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 With the leading wave slowing down, this prevents our storm axis from going neutral/negative earlier. You can see the upstream ridging is weaker. All good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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