The Alchemist Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I hear some people talk about the energy coming on shore in CA and being properly sampled at some point today. Has that happened as of yet?, and would it make the models swing from their current trends? I mean could more sampling make this an apps runner, or simple go up in smoke? Would more sampling affect the track, or strength, or both?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 keep coming south and east baby I live in Rockingham and were looking to be on the line right now as far as ice and rain. I don't want the dreaded ice, hopefully the EURO and GFS will come in a little more south east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:17 PM, The Alchemist said: I hear some people talk about the energy coming on shore in CA and being properly sampled at some point today. Has that happened as of yet?, and would it make the models swing from their current trends? I mean could more sampling make this an apps runner, or simple go up in smoke??? i believe it came onshore early this morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:19 PM, DopplerWx said: i believe it came onshore early this morn. Yup. I second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 15z SREF is pretty far south. It is kind of out of its range, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:22 PM, superjames1992 said: The 15z SREF is pretty far south. It is kind of out of its range, though. was just about to say that, not sure how much its worth but nice to see the south trends continue on the models as the sw came ashore this morning, resulting in better sampling for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro keeps trending farther south with the shortwave that rolls through the Great Lakes and into New England from hrs 15-39. That in concert with the building west coast ridge forces our Pacific wave to dig well south. The Great Lakes shortwave seems to be the key piece that has trended south (the Pacific wave is forced to track underneath the confluence in its wake). If the flow was flat out ahead of our Pacific wave, it would lift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 15z SREF south trend, following the rest of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15Z SREF not liking much snow for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:33 PM, PackGrad05 said: 15Z SREF not liking much snow for RDU it ends at 06z sat, storm should still be ongoing then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:19 PM, DopplerWx said: i believe it came onshore early this morn. ORH said it was still offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:07 PM, LovingGulfLows said: Hmm, that seems to imply maybe Atlanta can get in on the comma head snows as low pressure begins to depart...wonder if the 850s have crashed by then. On 1/19/2016 at 7:06 PM, superjames1992 said: I haven't seen that model before. Looks like the French model? Really interesting track as it transfers down towards the Gulf coast in the FL panhandle. Wow. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=arpege&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=arpege&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078 The NAVGEM is also not far off (it came further south with the 12z run). I think the JMA was similar, as well. Yeah i'm curious to see how well it does in a wedge situation. it implies a big ice storm for the upstate and even gets freezing temps into north ga before the main precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:07 PM, LovingGulfLows said: Hmm, that seems to imply maybe Atlanta can get in on the comma head snows as low pressure begins to depart...wonder if the 850s have crashed by then. 850s go sub zero by 90 hours and would certainly indicate at least some back end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:40 PM, frazdaddy said: ORH said it was still offshore Can someone clarify? Is the S/W onshore yet or does it come onshore tonight? Just trying to learn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:46 PM, 27596WXNUT said: Can someone clarify? Is the S/W onshore yet or does it come onshore tonight? Just trying to learn here. I think the main system is onshore, but it's possible the upper level support is still off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS out to 45 and lining up well with the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS tries to look like euro at the beginning, but really has not WEDGE or Confluence into NE (EURO does, and been trending stronger) I would favor the euro and its ensembles in this situation...why?? Better physics in the models, better handle on the energy imho...but maybe most importantly there is some good wedging and confluence in NE and a -NAO. This could trend a bit further south...IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:43 PM, Lookout said: Yeah i'm curious to see how well it does in a wedge situation. it implies a big ice storm for the upstate and even gets freezing temps into north ga before the main precip ends. wow....that is about as pronounced of a wedge I think I have ever seen modeled for the upstate and ne ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS coming in line with the Euro out to 72. No big changes to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:46 PM, 27596WXNUT said: Can someone clarify? Is the S/W onshore yet or does it come onshore tonight? Just trying to learn here.The s/w energy won't be on shore until tonight around 00z from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z eps looks good so far. Edit: Very close to keeping rdu frozen the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS pretty much in lockstep with the Euro operational through 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS isn't quite as far south as the OP...still a BIG CAD signature there and low is bombing off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 One trend I do see in the next day on the models is the leading wave moving across the lakes is trending south - that storm is what builds our HP overhead as it moves into 50/50 position. I think this is part of the reason why our storm is digging farther south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:54 PM, Jon said: The s/w energy won't be on shore until tonight around 00z from what I have seen. Yepp still 500 miles out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Mean and Control are lock step with the placement back in LA/MS border area by hour 60. Not sure how often the control and mean match up like that. Edit: wow they match really well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS snowfall maps on SV is 6 - 8 for CLT, 2 - 4 for GSP and then 10+ for WS, 6 - 8 for RDU and 15+ for GSO. This is just a rough guess..can't zoom in on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:55 PM, burgertime said: EPS isn't quite as far south as the OP...still a BIG CAD signature there and low is bombing off the coast. It's a mean so it balloons the isobars more as you move further out, but the 850mb 0 line is dead on with the Euro operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:58 PM, burgertime said: EPS snowfall maps on SV is 6 - 8 for CLT, 2 - 4 for GSP and then 10+ for WS, 6 - 8 for RDU and 15+ for GSO. I am only out to hr 72 on WB, but you can see the ULL digging further south and the ridge out west is a little taller. You can tell it was going to be a better run (as it evidently was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On 1/19/2016 at 7:57 PM, Wow said: One trend I do see in the next day on the models is the leading wave moving across the lakes is trending south - that storm is what builds our HP overhead as it moves into 50/50 position. I think this is part of the reason why our storm is digging farther south as well. agreed!! I think the GFS is screwing that up and jumping to much energy out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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