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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Best clown map I have ever seen at this time frame with regards to a storm.  I had a few Euro clowns in the 20" area with the February 2014 storm (though that was back when the WxBell Euro clown was terrible at including ZR and IP), but never 24-30".  Madness, I tell you.

 

I need to try to temper my expectations.

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Is that 15-18" running through Mecklenburg burger?!?

 

Sure is. Pretty wild too because I believe that is accounting for the mixing at the start....and given the setup there is a chance it could be mainly snow. This is going to either be an epic bust or history maker....heck even if you half the QPF that still gives us like 8 inches. 

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Gives me around six inches. I'll believe that when I see it. Last year when this area was predicted to get that much we ended up with less than half that amount.

I'll not forget that one. We just needed 2-3 degrees, if that, to have gotten our big snow though. Places north if HWY 11 in SC got their snow that night. Just not the GSP metro and towards Rock Hill, Union, or Charlotte.

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I think this map of ok to post but if it isn't mods can take it down. This would actually put Jan 96 to shame. Remember these totals are based on thermal profiles and not you usual 10:1 ratio. Additionally this is an major ice storm from the Upstate east to Rock Hill then turning northeast to near Raleigh. Charlotte starts as a mixed bag then gets about 0.5qpf of frz rain before ending up with about 9 inches of snow. That would create an absolute mess if that verifies around here.

 

post-962-0-49426000-1453228758_thumb.jpg

 

Edit: Just wanted to credit Andrew Revering and the wonderful job he does with EUROWx.com

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Euro isn't really a big deviation as far as the main players on the table go, but it really put western half NC/upstate SC in play.

This is true. I mean it and the uk look almost identical aloft and at the same time periods. it's not the only model further south though. arpge also lines up well with it..even spreading snow back into georgia on the back end.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

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This is true. I mean it and the uk look almost identical aloft and at the same time periods. it's not the only model further south though. arpge also lines up well with it..even spreading snow back into georgia on the back end.

[snipped image]

 

I haven't seen that model before.  Looks like the French model?  Really interesting track as it transfers down towards the Gulf coast in the FL panhandle.  Wow.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=arpege&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=arpege&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078

 

The NAVGEM is also not far off (it came further south with the 12z run).  I think the JMA was similar, as well.

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This is true. I mean it and the uk look almost identical aloft and at the same time periods. it's not the only model further south though. arpge also lines up well with it..even spreading snow back into georgia on the back end.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

 

Hmm, that seems to imply maybe Atlanta can get in on the comma head snows as low pressure begins to depart...wonder if the 850s have crashed by then.

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