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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Models seem to always overdo key features in the higher latitudes in the medium to longer range and then correct as we get closer. This usually manifests in southern track translating north as we close in (I.e. the NW trend). Hoping for a south trend at this point is going to be a tough beat, I'm afraid. A more legitimate hope is for the models to be under-doing CAD/overdoing surface temps. That is probable.

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Models seem to always overdo key features in the higher latitudes in the medium to longer range and then correct as we get closer. This usually manifests in southern track translating north as we close in (I.e. the NW trend). Hoping for a south trend at this point is going to be a tough beat, I'm afraid. A more legitimate hope is for the models to be under-doing CAD/overdoing surface temps. That is probable.

That 1024 high isn't gonna cut it  :(  

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At 102 hrs, I want to see that slp consolidated right off the SC coast rather than this dbl barreled thing that the GFS has.

Agreed.  This seems to not clearly be resolved yet.  GFS coming back to it though is not encouraging.  Let's see if the GEFS agrees or stays south

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