Jonathan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS going in the right direction, though. That is the important thing. Not really. Went negative way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 2 contour cutoff at 105, going to be a another big run for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 nope, unless we see some big changes tonight into tomorrow as the sw comes ashore, i dont think this is a se storm. MA is going to cash in with this one. Still have time. And the Euro looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If anything 12z went negative a little more west than the 06z run, not good for the SE. I agree Jon...I looks like it'll transfer to the coast around Delmarva and turn into a good storm for the MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's own ensembles don't even agree with it. But will the GFS score a coup being on an island all by its self? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 temps try to crash on the backside at 114, maybe ends as snow for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS says winners TN/KY/Mountains. Even has 1" wrap around down to near Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 temps try to crash on the backside at 114, maybe ends as snow for some. GFS has been advertising a cool 1" or so for RDU on the backside, at least there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we can say with likelihood that South Carolina is not going to get any winter precip out of this. Also, non-mtns/ft hills/ N Piedmont sections of NC's chances are diminishing also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 a nice 40 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 2.8 qpf for our place in Castleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's own ensembles don't even agree with it. But will the GFS score a coup being on an island all by its self? Not sure why everyone seems to be giving up if the GFS is the only one that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models seem to always overdo key features in the higher latitudes in the medium to longer range and then correct as we get closer. This usually manifests in southern track translating north as we close in (I.e. the NW trend). Hoping for a south trend at this point is going to be a tough beat, I'm afraid. A more legitimate hope is for the models to be under-doing CAD/overdoing surface temps. That is probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If anything 12z went negative a little more west than the 06z run, not good for the SE. yeah horrible run for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Monday 12z GFS will not get it done even for the mountains Things should become more clear towards Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we can say with likelihood that South Carolina is not going to get any winter precip out of this. Also, non-mtns/ft hills/ N Piedmont sections of NC's chances are diminishing also.From one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From one run? And from one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 At 102 hrs, I want to see that slp consolidated right off the SC coast rather than this dbl barreled thing that the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From one run? No, from all of them other than the UKIE. All of them are too far north, GFS just ridiculously so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models seem to always overdo key features in the higher latitudes in the medium to longer range and then correct as we get closer. This usually manifests in southern track translating north as we close in (I.e. the NW trend). Hoping for a south trend at this point is going to be a tough beat, I'm afraid. A more legitimate hope is for the models to be under-doing CAD/overdoing surface temps. That is probable. That 1024 high isn't gonna cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And from one model. You really want it to be well south of you at this range...not hoping for it to trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That 1024 high isn't gonna cut it Nope not at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At 102 hrs, I want to see that slp consolidated right off the SC coast rather than this dbl barreled thing that the GFS has. Agreed. This seems to not clearly be resolved yet. GFS coming back to it though is not encouraging. Let's see if the GEFS agrees or stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nope not at all!It can trend stronger! It hasn't even been sampled yet! Let's see what the ensembles say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It can trend stronger! It hasn't even been sampled yet! Let's see what the ensembles say! What, the high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At 102 hrs, I want to see that slp consolidated right off the SC coast rather than this dbl barreled thing that the GFS has. That's the fly in the ointment. If that western low goes away, we get much more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No, from all of them other than the UKIE. All of them are too far north, GFS just ridiculously so. Not the euro or EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z cmc has a similar track as the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snow map that Allan Huffman just posted looks encouraging. He also says there is a stronger cad signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What, the high?Yes stronger and better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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