rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's going to be close. Even the GFS (the warmest model) would be near .5 of freezing rain (...model wont load so not sure exact amount) before the switch. all it takes is .25 of freezing rain to warrant Winter Storm Warnings. I agree...I believe we'll see some frozen precip but totals will be cut down because of the change over to rn during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Unless the cad comes in stronger I expect the rdu area to switch over to rain during the height of the storm. All models at this point are showing the transfer to be too far west to stay all frozen for rdu. The further west you are the better chances you have of staying all frozen imo. Yeah folks around here should know that these Miller B's that hand off from a TN low to the NC coast never work out for most of NC.....the folks out around I77 maybe but a 995-1000mb low sitting ON the coast of NC is rain for everyone east of around I77 100% of the time... This thing has to reform the low off SC coast and then have it track NE from there off the carolina coast, anything right on or just inland is game over for 75% of NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just to be clear though....the GFS is not currently showing any winter precip for the southern piedmont verbatim. It hasn't been in any runs I've seen yet. Or am I missing something? The latest runs got down to 34 I think. Not sold on the "models" missing the cold wedge formula at this point. You gotta trust in the CAD dude. It 99% of the time overperforms and the GFS is always the warmest model with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z UKMET looks solid, especially with the 500 mb ULL track. 24-hr panels are always a bit of a mystery, of course, but the LP is near ILM at hr 96. Based on the UK H5 position at 96hrs, I have a hard time believing the GFS slp off the coast of Jersey 12hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ah, no problem! I think I saw that storm as an analog somewhere. I'd take a repeat. Quite a beastly storm, even if we did sleet for most of it. Yea I can't remember the exact setup of that storm, I'm not even sure it was the same setup. I just feel like given this setup we might end up with the same result. By the way on that storm we only ended up with 8 inches in CLT because of the ULL that came by in the morning after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Canadian has a nice strong CAD signal. Stronger than GFS for sure. i'm not sure what to make of the canadian because it's so much colder than the gfs from the start which likely is influencing it's temps with this wedge. Take tomorrow morning for example, it shows lows in the mid to upper teens over north carolina vs mid to upper 20s on the gfs. It shows highs tomorrow over north carolina only around 40/41 while gfs shows upper 40s. By friday morning, it has mid 20s vs the gfs near 32. Pretty big differences between the two before the storm even arrives which clearly is having an influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You gotta trust in the CAD dude. It 99% of the time overperforms and the GFS is always the warmest model with it. Hmm, the NAM went colder with the wedge so there's that. I just hate extrapolating unseen data. GFS has been pretty consistent with this thing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Based on the UK H5 position at 96hrs, I have a hard time believing the GFS slp off the coast of Jersey 12hrs later. The storm on the GFS did slow down though comparing it to previous panels, so therefore I believe it's making adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 per ryan maue on twitter. gfs map. i assume some of this for central nc is wraparound as it exits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'm not sure what to make of the canadian because it's so much colder than the gfs from the start which likely is influencing it's temps with this wedge. Take tomorrow morning for example, it shows lows in the mid to upper teens over north carolina vs mid to upper 20s on the gfs. It shows highs tomorrow over north carolina only around 40/41 while gfs shows upper 40s. By friday morning, it has mid 20s vs the gfs near 32. Pretty big differences between the two before the storm even arrives which clearly is having an influence. True. Didn't even notice that. CMC tends to run pretty cold anyways. Same high placement of 1032...then a 1024 in NY exiting stage right. I figured though the actual shallow cold air associated with it in NC at least may be closer to reality of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd love to take what the GFS showed there. Euro would be even better, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hmm, the NAM went colder with the wedge so there's that. I just hate extrapolating unseen data. GFS has been pretty consistent with this thing so far. This will more than likely be a "we won't know until it's falling or switching over" for CLT. Curious as to where the Euro falls on this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea I can't remember the exact setup of that storm, I'm not even sure it was the same setup. I just feel like given this setup we might end up with the same result. By the way on that storm we only ended up with 8 inches in CLT because of the ULL that came by in the morning after the storm. We were saved by the deformation band after the storm. That storm was COLD when it initially came through (teens I think), and it was a gulf storm. We were supposed to get close to a foot I think, but had a warm mid layer that made us turn to sleet. We had about 2 inches of snow with an inch of sleet on top. 3-4 inches total maybe in CLT. Pretty disappointed. Then the deformation band came through the next day at 32-33 degrees and dumped 4-5 inches of snow on us and saved it. It was a gulf storm though, and cold. Just had a warm nose that killed us at the height of the precip, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hmm, the NAM went colder with the wedge so there's that. I just hate extrapolating unseen data. GFS has been pretty consistent with this thing so far. You're just going have to "watch and learn". This has GFS bust written all over it. We could be dead wrong...... but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did anyone look at the 0z Euro Para and Para Ensembles? I think I read that the Para op was good, but I don't remember hearing about the para-ensembles. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'm not sure what to make of the canadian because it's so much colder than the gfs from the start which likely is influencing it's temps with this wedge. Take tomorrow morning for example, it shows lows in the mid to upper teens over north carolina vs mid to upper 20s on the gfs. It shows highs tomorrow over north carolina only around 40/41 while gfs shows upper 40s. By friday morning, it has mid 20s vs the gfs near 32. Pretty big differences between the two before the storm even arrives which clearly is having an influence. I made a post on this earlier about how the GFS has been missing the surface temps all winter long.... Isohume said to trust the MOS over the poorly performing GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One thing to remember is that no matter what this is going to be a BIG storm. Another thing to remember is that this is about the time the Euro caved in with the last storm. So the 12z is going to be a very interesting run. But good to see the GFS pushing higher snow totals in the foothills and mountains compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Something to watch on each operational and ensembles is where the low transfers to the coast and how far up into TN the primary low goes. If we have a more southern transfer, with additional CAD (assuming the models haven't figured out the strength of the CAD and the HP continues to trend stronger) then it could be higher totals for at least RDU west in NC. If there is a transfer over GA to SC, and the low bombs off the coast then we have a chance. If the transfer is over TN to NC (see 06z GFS) GEFS seems to favor a more northern transfer, EPS seems to favor a southern transfer. If you live in NC, you want the EPS to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Could tomorrow event in the upstate play a part in those areas being colder? Especially if there's snow already on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 per ryan maue on twitter. gfs map. i assume some of this for central nc is wraparound as it exits? I'm pretty sure some of it is on the front end very early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Something to watch on each operational and ensembles is where the low transfers to the coast and how far up into TN the primary low goes. If we have a more southern transfer, with additional CAD (assuming the models haven't figured out the strength of the CAD and the HP continues to trend stronger) then it could be higher totals for at least RDU west in NC. If there is a transfer over GA to SC, and the low bombs off the coast then we have a chance. If the transfer is over TN to NC (see 06z GFS) GEFS seems to favor a more northern transfer, EPS seems to favor a southern transfer. If you live in NC, you want the EPS to be right. Good post and exactly right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did anyone look at the 0z Euro Para and Para Ensembles? I think I read that the Para op was good, but I don't remember hearing about the para-ensembles. Thanks! The 0z Para op lines up well with the regular Euro. Maybe a bit more snow for the southern periphery. QPF is probably more realistic (1.8" here vs. 2.7" on the op). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC is a HUGE ice storm for GSP to around WS. Picture of this CMC model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 True. Didn't even notice that. CMC tends to run pretty cold anyways. Same high placement of 1032...then a 1024 in NY exiting stage right. I figured though the actual shallow cold air associated with it in NC at least may be closer to reality of an ice storm. On the other hand, gfs was a bit too warm this morning..by about 6 or 7 degrees here and most places while the canadian was about right so maybe the problem lies with the gfs(?) and it's in fact too warm? Will be interesting to see how temps behave between now and thursday, where the gfs is a number of degrees warmer. If the gfs continues to be too warm through then it's reasonable to assume it probably is too warm friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Urge caution on this -- in more ways than one. Caution No. 1 -- be ready for a terrible ice storm with this system. Caution 2: Also be ready for a big bust. It's important to note that neither the GFS nor the NAM at 12z actually show much winter precip for places like GSP/CLT, et al. For the NAM, Charlotte gets to -.5C for 3 hours but is basically at or above freezing the entire time with super warm upper level temps. Shelby only gets to -.1C for three hours. Haven't seen GFS soundings yet, but surface maps aren't impressive at 2m. Yes, the CAD could be underdone and I've certainly seen many times when that was the case. But I've also seen CAD OVERdone -- not as often, but it happens. This storm is a monster and will confound the models and the experts in some way -- we just don't know how. So, enjoy the ride, but be ready for anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Picture of this CMC model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One thing to remember is that no matter what this is going to be a BIG storm. Another thing to remember is that this is about the time the Euro caved in with the last storm. So the 12z is going to be a very interesting run. But good to see the GFS pushing higher snow totals in the foothills and mountains compared to yesterday. I feel like the GFS just showed its hand somewhat and actually migrated toward a euroish solution obv not as far south but readjusted itself. The primary I believe is still going to far north if the cad sets up the way it portrayed with cad now infiltrating North Carolina zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One thing to remember is that no matter what this is going to be a BIG storm. Another thing to remember is that this is about the time the Euro caved in with the last storm. So the 12z is going to be a very interesting run. But good to see the GFS pushing higher snow totals in the foothills and mountains compared to yesterday. Mathew East out of Charlotte said he's leaning with the Euro and the Canadian models. Both are identical and when that happens history has it the Euro is King let's hope the GFS starts ticking south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also..Brad just tweeted to remember that the ECMWF models do not separate p-type. fzra and sleet all show as snow at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also..Brad just tweeted to remember that the ECMWF models do not separate p-type. fzra and sleet all show as snow at 10:1 The WB maps were upgraded to account for this. Otherwise, last nights run would have shown widespread 20"+ amounts in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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