strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 this Run of the GFS is looking to dump well over 1" and some places 1.5" in the areas you mentioned The window for any large shifts is quickly closing and I would expect mesoscale banding features as well as thermal profiles to become more consistent in the next 24hrs. Small run to run variations are to be expected and likely not going to be enough to constitute a bonafide trend. Folks in the Piedmont and Foothills maybe down to GSP, it would be prudent to makes preps for power interuptions, possibly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The window for any large shifts is quickly closing and I would expect mesoscale banding features as well as thermal profiles to become more consistent in the next 24hrs. Small run to run variations are to be expected and likely not going to be enough to constitute a bonafide trend. Folks in the Piedmont and Foothills maybe down to GSP, it would be prudent to makes preps for power interuptions, possibly significant. Gonna be big potential for an ice storm that is for sure. My early guess would be a mixed bag similar to the Feb 2013 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definitely took a step towards the EURO IMO.. More snow down into WNC..just looks a little colder, upper low still goes into ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12 GFS precip types at hour 72 (after .25 has fallen in RDU and near .5 in the Triad): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can't help but think this is trending toward last year's storm.. The forecast was for crippling FZRA but most areas were saved by more sleet than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If it is anything like the old nogaps I would expect it to be a little south and flatter than the other globals, GFS, EC, CMC. Agreed that the old NOGAPS certainly tended to be wide right while other models were hitting, but it is notable because the NAVGEM was quite amped up yesterday and looked like pretty much all-rain for most of NC. We'll see how it goes going forward. The whole orientation is different in my opinion. It's slower comparing the 6z and 12z frames. 12z 81 hr has it inland maybe a tick south of Fayetteville whereas 87 at 6z had it up near Hatteras. Yeah, you are right in that it is a bit slower than the past run(s). Gonna be big potential for an ice storm that is for sure. My early guess would be a mixed bag similar to the Feb 2013 storm. Agreed. I am assuming you are talking about the February 2014 storm, though? --- Anyways, looks like all models are onboard for a major winter storm here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The window for any large shifts is quickly closing and I would expect mesoscale banding features as well as thermal profiles to become more consistent in the next 24hrs. Small run to run variations are to be expected and likely not going to be enough to constitute a bonafide trend. Folks in the Piedmont and Foothills maybe down to GSP, it would be prudent to makes preps for power interuptions, possibly significant. Upstate SC could have a major ice storm? NE GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Upstate SC could have a major ice storm? NE GA?Maybe the upper parts of gville. Don't think the HP is gonna be strong enough for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Would not be surprised at all if GFS is underestimating the CAD and it is stronger right down I85 to include GSP, Pickens, oconee, Anderson. To be included in Ice. I've see these setups turn into Ice storms across these areas too many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z UKMET looks solid, especially with the 500 mb ULL track. 24-hr panels are always a bit of a mystery, of course, but the LP is near ILM at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z NAM has GSP on the brink of an ice storm. Starting at 4z on the 22nd, surface temps range from around in the 32.4 to 33.7 with 1.28 inches of precip falling over a 17 hour period. No ice shown verbatim but man it would not take much to turn this into a BIG DEAL for the upstate. FYI 12Z at face value shows 0.58" of 1.09" showing ZR for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Canadian has a nice strong CAD signal. Stronger than GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe the upper parts of gville Way too soon to count yourself out. Go back and look at the February 16th thread from last year. No models were showing Freezing rain into Georgia 48 hours before the event, and they wound up with a devastating ice storm. Assuming the Euro/ukmet/cmc hold serve, I expect to see temperatures in the CAD regions trend down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 UK looks like it might be coming further south with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Unless the cad comes in stronger I expect the rdu area to switch over to rain during the height of the storm. All models at this point are showing the transfer to be too far west to stay all frozen for rdu. The further west you are the better chances you have of staying all frozen imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z UKMET looks solid, especially with the 500 mb ULL track. 24-hr panels are always a bit of a mystery, of course, but the LP is near ILM at hr 96. Dang 995 off ILM and bombing. That's going to be one hell of a deformation CCB zone on the west side of this storm. If your close on temps freakin rates may overcome that on there own. Granted yes latent heat release but that will be some insane rates as it goes up the coast while strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agreed. I am assuming you are talking about the February 2014 storm, though? Wasn't it Feb 2013 when had the 6 inches with sleet and ZR sandwiched in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good trends overall with the GFS, as it seemed colder over the Piedmont at the outset, allowing for the possibility of more front end snow followed by a changeover to freezing rain and then rain (in areas), followed by perhaps snow again on Saturday. Clown map looked similar to the EURO, I think. Expect the CAD signature to grow stronger in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wasn't it Feb 2013 when had the 6 inches with sleet and ZR sandwiched in between? No, I think you are thinking of February 2014 (which I agree has a lot of similarities to this one, including weenie QPF runs, etc.). This one also pounded DC, though DC changed over to rain in the middle of it as the CAD HP was pulling away as the storm came in (though it was good enough for us to maintain our in-situ CAD). Then the monster deformation band hammered the foothills down towards CLT on the following day. Feb 2013 was snowless, except for the "Wildremann said it was gonna snow" storm which involved the leeside ULL dumping heavy wet snow on the CLT and GSP area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sref mean: Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/689475623773810688?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If the CAD does prove stronger/more pronounced, look for the secondary to form further south and east along the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Unless the cad comes in stronger I expect the rdu area to switch over to rain during the height of the storm. All models at this point are showing the transfer to be too far west to stay all frozen for rdu. The further west you are the better chances you have of staying all frozen imo. It's going to be close. Even the GFS (the warmest model) would be near .5 of freezing rain (...model wont load so not sure exact amount) before the switch. all it takes is .25 of freezing rain to warrant Winter Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No, I think you are thinking of February 2014 (which I agree has a lot of similarities to this one, including weenie QPF runs, etc.). Feb 2013 was snowless, except for the "Wildremann said it was gonna snow" storm which involved the leeside ULL dumping heavy wet snow on the CLT and GSP area. Ahh...haha I forgot it was 2016 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I can't get the image from FallsLake's post to open. Would someone please describe the image? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Canadian has a nice strong CAD signal. Stronger than GFS for sure. Rolling with the GFS underestimating the CAD and the Euro/Canadian having a better handle on temps until proved otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC is a HUGE ice storm for GSP to around WS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ahh...haha I forgot it was 2016 already! Ah, no problem! I think I saw that storm as an analog somewhere. I'd take a repeat. Quite a beastly storm, even if we did sleet for most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The window for any large shifts is quickly closing and I would expect mesoscale banding features as well as thermal profiles to become more consistent in the next 24hrs. Small run to run variations are to be expected and likely not going to be enough to constitute a bonafide trend. Folks in the Piedmont and Foothills maybe down to GSP, it would be prudent to makes preps for power interuptions, possibly significant. Just to be clear though....the GFS is not currently showing any winter precip for the southern piedmont verbatim. It hasn't been in any runs I've seen yet. Or am I missing something? The latest runs got down to 34 I think. Not sold on the "models" missing the cold wedge formula at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sref mean: Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/689475623773810688?s=09 WOW! That's without the worst part of the storm coming through for me. High winds and heavy rates all night after that. I'm in heaven lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC is a HUGE ice storm for GSP to around WS. I notice the ULL ticked a bit south compared to last night's run, as well. Hope that's a trend we can stick with, with the UKMET having done the same going towards the Euro's depiction. And, yeah, that's a nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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