Jonathan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like today's trend so far is less snow and more ice, even across the VA border. Temps are ticking colder but the SLP is ticking north. Is there a chance this ends up not even transferring and becomes an apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It just seems doubtful that the wedging is going to be so strong that it keeps the WAA at bay from a low that far north/west of the SE. It's almost like something like you see on a 300 hour GFS, not 84 hour. Is it because of the transfer of the low to the coast that locks in the wedge? Yea it helps to establish and maintain the low level cold oozing down the apps so where the coastal low starts to take off it keep those northerly winds locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like today's trend so far is less snow and more ice, even across the VA border. Temps are ticking colder but the SLP is ticking north. Is there a chance this ends up not even transferring and becomes an apps runner? Shhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For my location the 6Z nam output showed all RN during for this system. The 12Z has came in are give me 3 hours of SN then 15 hours of frzn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For my location the 6Z nam output showed all RN during for this system. The 12Z has came in are give me 3 hours of SN then 15 hours of frzn Good trends, now will the GFS continue the colder 2m temps? Will it track the low farther south? My guess is it will stick to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Late NAM hours I know, but a nice change in 6 hours. Good trends, now will the GFS continue the colder 2m temps? Will it track the low farther south? My guess is it will stick to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From Robert's FB page. Wxsouth The new model runs are beginning, and first out is NAM. Suprisingly good agreement with the Globals on this on its last frames, ending Friday night, and it shows a major Ice Storm in North Carolina Piedmont, and now is colder at the surface for northern SC and northeast GA. This drops over 1" to about 1.5" liquid equivalent into sub freezing air around the 85 corridor and west through the Triad down to Hickory, which would be a dangerous and destructive icestorm. I suspect all models are not cold enough yet , since they have the strong high in a perfect spot in PA and western New York funneliing down low level cold air, trends usually go toward colder in a damming event east of the Apps. It clobbers much of central, northern Kentucky with big time snow totals and is just beginning for Virgnia, already some foot amounts though in VA and western NC. (lots of sleet mixed in probably near there). This only goes out to Friday night (much more snow coming for WVa. VA, MD and DE, NC) I'll have a full breakdown at my site after all model runs today as well as put out the alert here on FB. Sorry but I can't answer all the questions about how much snow and ice will occur, wish I could, but my time is limited at FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm just on real quick without a chance to look at much, but is it still looking like a Ice storm for the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Differences in GFS through 36 are pretty negligible to the naked eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Through 48 GFS once again negligible comparing to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm just on real quick without a chance to look at much, but is it still looking like a Ice storm for the upstate? Yes the cad is stronger and the transition line will be further south. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Low is a tick stronger at 30. Differences in GFS through 36 are pretty negligible to the naked eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It just seems doubtful that the wedging is going to be so strong that it keeps the WAA at bay from a low that far north/west of the SE. It's almost like something like you see on a 300 hour GFS, not 84 hour. Is it because of the transfer of the low to the coast that locks in the wedge? As i noted the other day, it's actually not that uncommon to see strong wedging with a low west of the mountains. Especially so in north carolina/upstate. . Plus temps aloft with this system are not excessive with max temps aloft reaching 6 or 7c at their highest value on the nam, for example...which is good enough if the boundary layer is cold and deep enough. If the near surface cold layer was too shallow, it would erode faster but in this case they are quite cold up to 925mb or a little higher on the nam..which is more than enough to support freezing temps at the surface within the wedge in north carolina and maybe even into the parts of the northern upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS just slightly south at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 57 the placement of the low pressure is fairly similar from previous, around the vicinity of northeast Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS out to 54...not much change compared to 6z at 5h. Just a touch south with the main piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 @60 there is a nice jump south compared to it's 6z run. Probably going to end up close to the Euro if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 66 there is much more precip overspreading SC and NC with 850s better looking. Orientation of the low is not too much difference, as burger mentioned maybe a tick southeast of its position from 72 at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 low is cutting off @69. Not going to end up like the Euro...but IMO it took a jump towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS blinks first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 low is cutting off @69. Not going to end up like the Euro...but IMO it took a jump towards it. This run it does look more south for sure tho cad more pronounced with good rates incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS at 66 06 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is South and more CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro is going to be telling. If it holds serve then this is going to be serious. Already GFS looks like it would be a bad ice storm for someone in NC and possibly even into SC. GFS is too far north with the low so we're stuck with a lot of WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The whole orientation is different in my opinion. It's slower comparing the 6z and 12z frames. 12z 81 hr has it inland maybe a tick south of Fayetteville whereas 87 at 6z had it up near Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like more CAD into hr 78 compared to the 6 run 12z 06Z GFS is South and more CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The window for any large shifts is quickly closing and I would expect mesoscale banding features as well as thermal profiles to become more consistent in the next 24hrs. Small run to run variations are to be expected and likely not going to be enough to constitute a bonafide trend. Folks in the Piedmont and Foothills maybe down to GSP, it would be prudent to makes preps for power interuptions, possibly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definitely took a step towards the EURO IMO.. More snow down into WNC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NE AS THEMID LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DEEPMOISTURE...CAA...AND NW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP ACROSS THE NCMTNS ALL NIGHT. IN FACT...THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MAYKEEP PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. P-TYPE WILLGRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. NWFS WILLCONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ENDING DURING THE EVENING. THIS FORECASTPACKAGE WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE MENTION OF FZRAACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS...WITH WARNING CRITERIA ICEOVER AVERY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILLEXPECTED TO BE HIGH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...MODERATE OVER THE REST OFTHE TN BORDER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...SAT MORNING TEMPS SHOULD FALLBELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...RESULTING IN SLICKROADS. THESE HAZARDS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gosh I feel bad if someone gets whacked with freezing rain with that amount of moisture. It would be catastrophic. Hopefully 2m upstairs is cold enough to where sleet can be created at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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