Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 66 the cad is nicely depicted comparing it to the 6z frame at the same timeframe. Moisture on our doorstep. Nam's juiciness starting to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM a little stronger with the low but colder in NC at hr 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM a little stronger with the low but colder in NC at hr 69 Snow breaking out in NC mountains/foothills at hr 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM a little stronger with the low but colder in NC at hr 69 Thanks for your videos and input on the snow threats Matt, very helpful and appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 75 is where it looks to start transferring its energy to the coastline. The cad is almost all the way down to the ne GA mountains on this run. Primary up near TN KY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM a little stronger with the low but colder in NC at hr 69 understatement!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 72 seems to be a good 2 degrees colder at the surface. I-40 north in the 20's where 6z was between 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Old EE rule never fails, espeacilly with 2 euro ops and their ensembles. Sprinkle on the can, ukie and nav/nogaps. I'm all in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Same deal at 78..... colder in NC....rough eyeball test looks 2-4 degrees colder than 6z run at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 84 she's exploding near ILM (Wilmington). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Simulated radar at hour 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_078_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 2m temps at hour 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_078_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 81 both 850 and 2m temps support wintry precip for northern half of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 48 as well it is really digging NAM pics. Sorry at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NW of the Triad stays below freezing the entire run with over 1inch of qpf by the end with more coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM pics. Sorry at work. I'm sorry man I'm on my phone as well. Can someone maybe retrieve 5h for tilted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 78 has a good picture of the mixed bag of precipitation types we could be in for: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know most of the attention is focused at the carolinas but i wanted to point out that there is a chance of some modest freezing rain amounts thursday morning across northeast ga with the initial stages of this system. A lot will depend on just how low temps get tomorrow/tomorrow evening after saturation from the weak wave tomorrow. Wetbulbs should be in the 26 to 29 range during the event tomorrow and There really is no reason for temps to rise tomorrow night..indeed models generally take temps down a notch or two by 12z thursday with temps bottoming out at around 30 or 31 by 12z thur. However toward the predawn hours most models are starting to begin to bring precip back into the area..especially by 12z. Since the models are already at freezing or slightly below, it seems reasonable that if we are able to reach wetbulb temps or close to them it stands to reason it will take a bit longer to warm up thursday. There is no fresh cold air source so if temps start subfreezing latent heat release will likely bring temps back to above freezing by mid day or so..however models are showing 0.25 to maybe as much as a half inch of precip by 18z. Best chances are in the mountains and northeast of gainesville obviously. Again not a huge deal but considering there could be some snow cover, could make for some pretty scenery before being washed and melted away. Will be interesting to see which models do better over nc and sc with the main system. canadian is significantly colder than the gfs from the get go, as well as the arpege which probably explains why it's showing a lot more freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like the nam shoved the primary pretty far north as well but the way it transferred its energy was just in time before 850s got scoured out down in NC. I guess upstairs tho it is mighty cold as per someone I saw posted 2m map st 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Same deal at 78..... colder in NC....rough eyeball test looks 2-4 degrees colder than 6z run at hr 84. very close to freezing now showing up in extreme ne ga and the upstate. At this point, there stands a decent shot of freezing rain making it into the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Folks mind you nam has a bias of over amplifying. To see it shows 850s below 0 at this timeframe is def a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/19/16, 06:53 Upcoming Major league storm on east coast closest to Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 16-18 2003. Would look for blend of amounts Would love to see a repeat of Feb 2003 storm in the upstate if we cant' get snow. We had about 3" of sleet with that storm. However, one thing I remember about that setup was that the high pressure to the north was very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 did you guys see the 500mb at 84 on NAM. wow. I continue to be amazed by the evolution of this event on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM took the SLP all the way into Kentucky...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM took the SLP all the way into Kentucky...yikes sfc temps remain below freezing for the CAD areas, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 sfc temps remain below freezing for the CAD areas, however. Looks like Mooresville might get icy :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 sfc temps remain below freezing for the CAD areas, however. Yet, that line keeps moving further south. (Freezing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It just seems doubtful that the wedging is going to be so strong that it keeps the WAA at bay from a low that far north/west of the SE. It's almost like something like you see on a 300 hour GFS, not 84 hour. Is it because of the transfer of the low to the coast that locks in the wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z nam (KFQD) shows: .57" during 74 HR with a 2m of 30.4. Does have a strong WAA at the 850 level of 3.4 down to -1.1 at 950 . So lots of FRA rain Total of 1.26" for the late week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It just seems doubtful that the wedging is going to be so strong that it keeps the WAA at bay from a low that far north/west of the SE. It's almost like something like you see on a 300 hour GFS, not 84 hour. Is it because of the transfer of the low to the coast that locks in the wedge? I think it's the strength and position of the high, if that's perfect, the low track doesn't really matter. I've seen severe ice storms here and it be 50-60 degrees in TN, with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This storm really does look similar to Jan 96, except for the amount of cold air preceding the storm and high pressure strength. If the EURO is correct then the tracks are very similar as well. As of now i would expect snow to sleet to ZR for northern foothills, N of I 40, S of I 40 little snow, more sleet and possibly devastating ZR. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?e=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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