BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO's superior resolution gives it a big edge over the GFS with a wedge-type system such as this. Plus,as others have mentioned, more often than not the wedge/CAD is underestimated at this range. I fully expect the EC to be much closer to reality than the GFS at this point. Here's hoping to a good day of model watching! Yeah, I'm not really sure why the Euro is being treated so skeptically this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah I agree, but not just RDU but GSO, CLT, INT etc... I can't see GSO or INT being rain. Climo would argue strongly against it. A lot would have to change for their p-type to be predominantly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO's superior resolution gives it a big edge over the GFS with a wedge-type system such as this. Plus,as others have mentioned, more often than not the wedge/CAD is underestimated at this range. I fully expect the EC to be much closer to reality than the GFS at this point. Here's hoping to a good day of model watching! Poimen, good to see you. Thank you for solidifying that point to the members on here. The GFS scores a coup and everyone is jumping ship. THE GFS HANDLES CAD HORRIBLY. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para was a good hit for the northern mtns... looks to stay all snow up there. It almost looks like it's a solid miller a. I'm referring to the euro para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z NAVGEM has went crazy on us... it's now tracking the surface low along the coast from savannah up through hatteras... Good lord, it buries most of NC with a lot of snow once the transfer happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para was a good hit for the northern mtns... looks to stay all snow up there. It almost looks like it's a solid miller a. More snow in the foothills too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I can't see GSO or INT being rain. Climo would argue strongly against it. A lot would have to change for their p-type to be predominantly rain. Absolutely agree. You only have to worry about rain around the edges of the ZR in a scenario like this. With 850 temps that never get too warm, it could even be mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think a lot of places are still well within reach of a mostly frozen event, including the Triangle. If I were forecasting right now, I would go with a mix to rain scenario...possibly with some backside snow (I wouldn't count on much of that here, as we'll get swiped by the deform band as the storm pulls away. Not only does this type of track preclude all snow for the Triangle, but it will dry slot us as well. There is a wave in the northern branch at 72 that is moving east, just north of the US. It needs to move through faster and allow the high to build in faster. It would also be nice if the entire height field was shifted south by 100 miles. Good luck with that, though. After looking at the data and seeing the trends over the last 48 hrs, my guess is that the GFS is about the most northern possibility right now. CAD will look better as we get closer. It would be better if the air mass wasn't stale, so to speak. But if that northern energy moves by faster, maybe we'd have an outside shot at the high building in a little bit better. We'll see.... CR, IF the CAD comes in any colder on the GFS we will be looking at a significant ice storm for our area. 6z already shows freezing rain for a large portion of central NC before it switches to rain. Colder the CAD the later the switch or possibly never a switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With the projected High placement I tend to agree with you. Also good that the Para GFS is adding more snow back in towards the hills. Absolutely agree. You only have to worry about rain around the edges of the ZR in a scenario like this. With 850 temps that never get too warm, it could even be mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CR, IF the CAD comes in any colder on the GFS we will be looking at a significant ice storm for our area. 6z already shows freezing rain for a large portion of central NC before it switches to rain. Colder the CAD the later the switch or possibly never a switch. How far does that expand? CAD is in the upstate and northeast GA as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How far does that expand? CAD is in the upstate and northeast GA as well? It could, depending on where the transfer happens. The high is not particularly strong or optimally placed for a perfect CAD scenario where we can all sit back with no worries. But it should be sufficient to provide at least some wintry weather for those areas...again depending on where the transfer takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 KRDU is continuing to call for a rain/snow mix Friday and Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 9Z SREF wants to give RDU a good hit of freezing rain at the onset before a switch over to mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How far does that expand? CAD is in the upstate and northeast GA as well? That's the big question. You definitely want the euro storm track to up your chances (..and ours). Even the GFS track could work for your area if the CAD comes in stronger in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/19/16, 06:53 Upcoming Major league storm on east coast closest to Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 16-18 2003. Would look for blend of amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS continues to do a horrible job of getting 2 meter temps right here. I posted about this a couple of weeks ago and It is still the case. The GFS has been missing our temps by 5-9 degrees routinely. According to the raw numbers, my low last night was supposed to be 19 degrees. I bottomed out at 12..... This has been the theme all season long. The GFS is not handling the surface temps correctly at all. This may be a new bias that we have to identify and forecast around for areas here in the cad region. Bottom line is that the GFS is not accounting for the low-level cold air and it will most likely verify incorrectly with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Absolutely agree. You only have to worry about rain around the edges of the ZR in a scenario like this. With 850 temps that never get too warm, it could even be mostly sleet. No I wasn't talking about a change to plain rain, more to sleet and ZR which could predominate into an icy mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/19/16, 06:53 Upcoming Major league storm on east coast closest to Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 16-18 2003. Would look for blend of amounts Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'll gladly take that blend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z nam is digging our energy further south/west at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ditto here in KCLT with the bust on low temps in reference to GFS output Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z nam is digging our energy further south/west at hour 42. 48 as well it is really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't disagree with JB but remember he's forecasting for Richmond north and really DC north. I don't think he spent his last 24 hours pouring over the nuances of the depth and staying power of the modeled CAD in NC and SC. That said, I don't hate those analog maps for this event. I think we'll have more of everything with this storm though, especially ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS continues to do a horrible job of getting 2 meter temps right here. I posted about this a couple of weeks ago and It is still the case. The GFS has been missing our temps by 5-9 degrees routinely. According to the raw numbers, my low last night was supposed to be 19 degrees. I bottomed out at 12..... This has been the theme all season long. The GFS is not handling the surface temps correctly at all. This may be a new bias that we have to identify and forecast around for areas here in the cad region. Bottom line is that the GFS is not accounting for the low-level cold air and it will most likely verify incorrectly with this storm. The GFS explicit 2m temps are derived from upper sigma levels and are often inaccurate due to actual sfc variables and column interactions. They rarely, if ever, outperform MOS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bastardi is very NE biased,the SE does not exist in his eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM doesn't look that much different position-wise at hour 54, but the surface low is about 2 mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM doesn't look that much different position-wise at hour 54, but the surface low is about 2 mb stronger. 1mb Stronger High pressure and CAD signature showing up on hr 54 too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1009mb low pressure in central LA at hr 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM doesn't look that much different position-wise at hour 54, but the surface low is about 2 mb stronger. The high over Ohio looks to be a little stronger as well. **but hard to tell with my maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 System at 63 is a lot more juicy headed into TN. Looks like it's digging a little more than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Moisture exploding. Low is in northwest Mississippi @63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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