FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I agree. I'm thinking starting out as some frzra or sleet, depending on the warm nose. Then transitioning to rain which could help melt some of the ice that forms... then a changeover on the back end to some snow..depending on the deformation band I would say that's the smart forecast for right now. If the GFS starts to trend to the euro then we may never go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry, I just don't buy the EURO with the big Southeastward jump. Looks really odd and I don;t ever remember seeing one do that before but then again neither do I think the GFS is correct with the low coming straight through the mountains. I think most of us are going to get a huge mixed bag (outside the mtns) with a nasty ice storm in some areas. Todays runs will allow us to zero in on amounts and track I agree, No way I'll get 19 inches of snow out of this set up. Maybe a little thump to start thin Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Joe Bastardi My forecast isblend of 2/17-18/03 and 2/5-6/10 Amounts similar . This will be a beach bashing storm too ( wind, tidal flooding) I am not going to get into this model says this or this model says that. If you remember those storms, then you have a good idea on this IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hoping everyone has some snow but hoping WNC stays all Snow I don't like an ICE storm. Hoping GFS and other models cave to the Euro solution, this will have more folks in the snow area. I think WNC stays all frozen during the event but just not sure what type of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Awfully quiet in here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Awaiting new data... Awfully quiet in here this morning. Anyone have any research on where a LP enters the west coast and how it translates to east coast impacts? Been mentioned about this system since it is entering north of California. Anyone? Thanks Current WV Loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 should get decent sampling today as the wave comes ashore. still think this is a majority rain storm for my area. cant discount the gfs as it has been very consistent. i think this will be one of those "what could have been" storms, as we are progged to get so much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sounds like anything is still possible, from snow to ice to rain. Hope the Euro solutions works out and we get more snow, but seems some folks think it could be icy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Awfully quiet in here this morning. Almost like everyone is holding they're breath. Breathe folks, I'm trying to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If it is anything like the old nogaps I would expect it to be a little south and flatter than the other globals, GFS, EC, CMC. Lol your gonna laugh at me but I freakin loved the NOGAPS. It either did work or had some extremely whacky crazy solution that had no relevance to any other model. The most snow I've ever seen fall from one storm was back in the mid 2000's in CT. We got 38" confirmed by a spotter and it was insane (euro now spitting that out for me in ROA). Funny thing tho was the NOGAPS had some wild solution for that storm and the models trended toward it it was like it's only coup I had ever saw. Anyhow, I told everyone not to worry last night there was some solid trends for folks in NC. I got a good feeling about today now that the storm is about to come on in to the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 should get decent sampling today as the wave comes ashore. still think this is a majority rain storm for my area. cant discount the gfs as it has been very consistent. i think this will be one of those "what could have been" storms, as we are progged to get so much qpf. Hasn't the Euro been just as consistent? Not sure why you can't discount the Euro just as much as you can't the GFS. Euro has a reputation of handling CAD better, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 did the 00z para euro ever run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 should get decent sampling today as the wave comes ashore. still think this is a majority rain storm for my area. cant discount the gfs as it has been very consistent. i think this will be one of those "what could have been" storms, as we are progged to get so much qpf. I think a lot of places are still well within reach of a mostly frozen event, including the Triangle. If I were forecasting right now, I would go with a mix to rain scenario...possibly with some backside snow (I wouldn't count on much of that here, as we'll get swiped by the deform band as the storm pulls away. Not only does this type of track preclude all snow for the Triangle, but it will dry slot us as well. There is a wave in the northern branch at 72 that is moving east, just north of the US. It needs to move through faster and allow the high to build in faster. It would also be nice if the entire height field was shifted south by 100 miles. Good luck with that, though. After looking at the data and seeing the trends over the last 48 hrs, my guess is that the GFS is about the most northern possibility right now. CAD will look better as we get closer. It would be better if the air mass wasn't stale, so to speak. But if that northern energy moves by faster, maybe we'd have an outside shot at the high building in a little bit better. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Last night the GGEM Canadian and the euro were beautiful and they were much colder than the crap GFS that plows lows into confluence. That's the key for folks that are new to the game. You will learn that lows, especially transferring lows do not move dense cold air. In fact, when you transfer the low to the coast like that all it does is enhance the low level cold air because the winds will lock in to coming out the north as the system moves up the coast. For Raleigh and portions of northwestern SC I get it it is much more risky for winter weather but if I was in Asheville western NC mountains GSO I would be a little excited from the 00z runs from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hoping for more southern/eastern/colder = less fzrn trends today. I do have a couple of questions and am hoping that some of can learn a few things this morning: 1) Which model handles miller B scenarios the best? We don't have that many that effect us this far south? I would imagine the euro would handle the CAD better than the GFS which could effect where the secondary low forms off the coast?? Maybe I should ask the MA folks, but they have their hands full nailing down the 3 foot Jackpot zone! 2) To us that are less knowledgeable, the CAD source high doesn't look that impressive. I can analyze a 1032 mb high parked over NY, but that's not the case here. Someone mentioned "confluence" I believe. I don't know exactly what that is and how to tell if it is trending stronger. Can someone help? I'm trying to figure out what to be looking for on today's run. 3) Besides the energy coming on shore today, I'm sure we should be looking at the first system for tomorrow. I believe it might turn into a 50/50 low? What is that, and should we be rooting for it to be stronger and hang on longer before moving out to serve as a blocking mechanism? Thanks for the great disco! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think a lot of places are still well within reach of a mostly frozen event, including the Triangle. If I were forecasting right now, I would go with a mix to rain scenario...possibly with some backside snow (I wouldn't count on much of that here, as we'll get swiped by the deform band as the storm pulls away. Not only does this type of track preclude all snow for the Triangle, but it will dry slot us as well. There is a wave in the northern branch at 72 that is moving east, just north of the US. It needs to move through faster and allow the high to build in faster. It would also be nice if the entire height field was shifted south by 100 miles. Good luck with that, though. After looking at the data and seeing the trends over the last 48 hrs, my guess is that the GFS is about the most northern possibility right now. CAD will look better as we get closer. It would be better if the air mass wasn't stale, so to speak. But if that northern energy moves by faster, maybe we'd have an outside shot at the high building in a little bit better. We'll see.... the worst part is the big dog snow totals are sickeningly close to us, and with several ensemble members showing a hit it is juuuust enough to keep you sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone seems to be on the GFS train because it got the system last weekend right. But before everyone is all about the Euro being the king. I think some folks are just jumping on the GFS now just to avoid being let down if it does end up being right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the worst part is the big dog snow totals are sickeningly close to us, and with several ensemble members showing a hit it is juuuust enough to keep you sucked in. 50 miles in 3 days or so....we can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone seems to be on the GFS train because it got the system last weekend right. But before everyone is all about the Euro being the king. I think some folks are just jumping on the GFS now just to avoid being let down if it does end up being right again. Where do you come up with this stuff? EVERYONE is not on the GFS train. Who is Everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To answer part of your question here is confluence. It was discussed a couple years back. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33571-confluencediffluence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hoping everyone has some snow but hoping WNC stays all Snow I don't like an ICE storm. Hoping GFS and other models cave to the Euro solution, this will have more folks in the snow area. I think WNC stays all frozen during the event but just not sure what type of frozen. Agreed! We'll just have to see where the models take us from this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 did the 00z para euro ever run? I dont have that model also. Anyone comment on the trend of that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It seems like someone on this board will see a bad ice storm with this event. The question is who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Where do you come up with this stuff? EVERYONE is not on the GFS train. Who is Everyone? Okay, not everyone. But a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The big thing to remember is that this storm is getting hyped big time... but it is only TUESDAY... still a good 3-4 days away from go time.. The models will continue to shift back and forth, but should start to center on a solution, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To answer part of your question here is confluence. It was discussed a couple years back. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33571-confluencediffluence/ Thanks. So it a mechanism to raise heights and create some blocking. Which map on a model run would show this? 500mb heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Okay, not everyone. But a lot. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I bet we will go into STORM MODE soon and the banter will need to be relegated to the dedicated thread. Just a little public service announcement. Let's keep this thread dedicated to analysis. I'm sure we will have guests stopping by. Let's put all of the crap in the closet like we do when guests come to our homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EURO's superior resolution gives it a big edge over the GFS with a wedge-type system such as this. Plus,as others have mentioned, more often than not the wedge/CAD is underestimated at this range. I fully expect the EC to be much closer to reality than the GFS at this point. Here's hoping to a good day of model watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks. So it a mechanism to raise heights and create some blocking. Which map on a model run would show this? 500mb heights? Precisely. See you already know lol. But yes 5h would be a great tool to use. You can look at the isobars as well on 5h and determine the source of your air. So if you take the 1hr 12z nam the isobars are coming straight out of Canada and the confluence is very strong, as naturally it is bitterly cold outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.