burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS holds serve. Might be a tad warmer but it's the EPS. Overall signal grows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS holds serve. Might be a tad warmer but it's the EPS. Overall signal grows. Yep. QPF increased this run, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I couldn't sleep...now I officially won't sleep. Lord, what an unbelievable run fellas. I REALLY want to see the GFS make a move today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Also, if I was a betting man, I would almost guess that most areas will do better on the EPS graphs. Did a little worse in the snow-boarder counties on the Op... But some areas did 1-3" better, it's just random. GSO with 6" , RDU 2.4", HKY 8", Roxboro 6", CLT 2.4", Winston 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z GFS is unremarkable...however there are a couple of big dogs for Central NC on the 00z GEFS. e2, e9, e12, e14, e15, e16 so roughly 25% of the members. Going back to 00z GEFS yesterday, there was maybe one big dog for Central NC...trending well but we may be running out of time. Today is HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From GSP: &&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...A VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED EXTENDEDPERIOD. ON FRIDAY...LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATED A LOW TRACK ONTHE NORTH SIDE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A LOWTRACK ON THE SOUTH END...SLIDING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. IWILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE DETAILS OF THEEXTENDED.USING THIS APPROACH...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILLDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY...I WILL FORECAST POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES EARLYFRIDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN MTNSAND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...TO MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THEFORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ACOLD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES DO SUPPORT SNOWMIXED WITH SLEET ACROSS EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NRN MTNS AND EASTACROSS THE UNIFOUR AREA OF NC. AFTER SUNRISE...A WARM NOSE DEVELOPSOVER THE NC FOOTHILLS...CHANGING PRECIP OVER THE FZRA. THE AREA OFFZRA SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT INDYNAMIC COOLING AND MAY PRESERVE FZRA ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS.FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NE AS THEMID LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DEEPMOISTURE...CAA...AND NW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP ACROSS THE NCMTNS ALL NIGHT. IN FACT...THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MAYKEEP PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. P-TYPE WILLGRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. NWFS WILLCONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ENDING DURING THE EVENING. THIS FORECASTPACKAGE WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE MENTION OF FZRAACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS...WITH WARNING CRITERIA ICEOVER AVERY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILLEXPECTED TO BE HIGH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...MODERATE OVER THE REST OFTHE TN BORDER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...SAT MORNING TEMPS SHOULD FALLBELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...RESULTING IN SLICKROADS. THESE HAZARDS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO.DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGINTO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED ABIT SLOWER...I WILL DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just updated from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 06z GEFS ticked colder, especially at the surface. First GEFS run I've seen that supports an ice storm for the NC CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here Are A Few Hazardous Weather Outlooks From GSP Just Issued: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 06z GEFS ticked colder, especially at the surface. First GEFS run I've seen that supports an ice storm for the NC CAD regions.Maybe baby steps torwards the Euro!? I guess it's still Euro and CMC vs GFS!? Today's runs should be interesting, hopefully the S shift can continue. Shortwave should be onshore today, that should help the models, for better or worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Oz Cmc at 84 has a much stronger CAD signal the the Oz GFS at 84. L placement is almost the same. CMC GFS Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 06z GEFS ticked colder, especially at the surface. First GEFS run I've seen that supports an ice storm for the NC CAD regions. Even the 6z GFS is now showing ice into NC (at least for the onset). We may actually see small shifts to a colder surface (more CAD) than a huge shift in the storm track, as we get closer to the event. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_078_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowledgeispwr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Matt East has posted a video with his latest thoughts: http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RAH morning discussion is going with a blend of Euro and GFS. Mix across piedmont at onset, turning to primarily rain, maybe some now at the end... Temperatures seem to be an issue for RDU, but I know this depends on the track of the low and the strength of the cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z NAVGEM has went crazy on us... it's now tracking the surface low along the coast from savannah up through hatteras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z NAVGEM has went crazy on us... it's now tracking the surface low along the coast from savannah up through hatteras... Let's say this was to verify. Wishful thinking I know. Any chance of a warm nose? That seems to always be a problem around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let's say this was to verify. Any chance of a warm nose? It's still showing a low transfer.. so yes. There is no doubt there will be lots of ice for some areas. I'm really starting to think Upstate SC and NE Georgia will see a significant ice storm. (assuming the Euro/ukmet/cmc/navgem are correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's still showing a low transfer.. so yes. There is no doubt there will be lots of ice for some areas. I'm really starting to think Upstate SC and NE Georgia will see a significant ice storm. (assuming the Euro/ukmet/cmc/navgem or correct) Oh goodie. I'd rather have rain than ZR but that's just me personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry, I just don't buy the EURO with the big Southeastward jump. Looks really odd and I don;t ever remember seeing one do that before but then again neither do I think the GFS is correct with the low coming straight through the mountains. I think most of us are going to get a huge mixed bag (outside the mtns) with a nasty ice storm in some areas. Todays runs will allow us to zero in on amounts and track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's still showing a low transfer.. so yes. There is no doubt there will be lots of ice for some areas. I'm really starting to think Upstate SC and NE Georgia will see a significant ice storm. (assuming the Euro/ukmet/cmc/navgem are correct) If the models you listed win out, I do think most CAD areas will be in play for at least ice. We're seeing colder surface depictions on all the models with each passing run. But, if the GFS wins the battle, it's going to be hard for many of us to not see at least some rain; even with it showing colder surface temps with each passing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro isn't budging! In fact, if anything it just tripile dog dared the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06z NAVGEM has went crazy on us... it's now tracking the surface low along the coast from savannah up through hatteras... If it is anything like the old nogaps I would expect it to be a little south and flatter than the other globals, GFS, EC, CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro isn't budging! In fact, if anything it just tripile dog dared the GFS. we all want the Euro solution. I get destroyed on that one and you guys do well too. we all win. watch this be the only time its not on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 we all want the Euro solution. I get destroyed on that one and you guys do well too. we all win. watch this be the only time its not on point.the only time? The euro has been wrong many times over the last 5 years. It's not the same model that would nail storms like it did before 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 IMO, a lot has to change between now and Friday for RDU to get a biggie. I'm thinking more fzra and rain for RDU based on historical storms and current data.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 IMO, a lot has to change between now and Friday for RDU to get a biggie. I'm thinking more fzra and rain for RDU based on historical storms and current data.. Yeah I agree, but not just RDU but GSO, CLT, INT etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like the GFS is caving to the Euro... on 18z at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is the CAD signature increases today and with the forecasted amount of QPF on its way... It "could" get very bad (icy). Yeah I agree, but not just RDU but GSO, CLT, INT etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I agree. I'm thinking starting out as some frzra or sleet, depending on the warm nose. Then transitioning to rain which could help melt some of the ice that forms... then a changeover on the back end to some snow..depending on the deformation band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.