TiltedStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm. That will be a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm. So, you'll be in a hotel room without power. Better book one with a back-up generator, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still lots of spread in the models as of 6z. lets see what 12z does! I think it's going to have to be the furthest track to the south to do CLT/ southern piedmont any good for winter precip. All the inland tracks from the other models are no bueno imo. Hopefully the 12Z runs will trend toward the UKMET. That's the only model with a current track that works I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM looks like it's really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Its been a long time since upstate has seen a full blown ice storm. It want be good at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm.This one is tough! The cold air seems borderline, need a little work for us to score anything other than rain, as it looks now. NC mtns look to win big and I may have to take a drive up Sat, if we don't get anything! Things we need to pull for: stronger high/wedge, and continued S trends! Will be another unproductive work week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the low was more south of the 6z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise. I may be remembering wrong, but growing up our area of Catawba County used to do pretty good with these setups as opposed to just 20 miles south. Next two days of model runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the low was more south of the 6z run! ...for what model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ...for what model? I think he's talking about the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ...for what model? NAM it looks a tad bit weaker also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise. It's unique that's for sure. The energy comes from Northern California, through the mid-west dips to Louisiana, than up into central GA, then due east to the coast. Very odd track, but yes Miller A does not seem to fit to me either. It doesn't look like any guidance but the UKIE wants to put this along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Of course down here in GA we get scraps- unless the ULL goes a lot more south. Not completely impossible since the short wave that turns into our system will not enter the RAOB grid until late Tuesday- but the Euro ensembles are all clustered well north of here with the ULL, so I have not much hope we will get more than a dusting with the wrap-around. I will have the opportunity to take a short jaunt north Fri into early Sat, but there are not an inconsequential # of solutions where even the north GA mountains get only a few inches. Will probably have to watch from afar while someone gets buried, the area west of DC looks like ground zero right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM it looks a tad bit weaker also. yeah seems about 3-6 hours slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM looks good at the end of it's run, heading in a good direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yeah seems about 3-6 hours slowernam looks rather flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM looks good at the end of it's run, heading in a good direction! And with the NAM usually being phase happy, it makes me feel a tad bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 nam looks rather flat. Yeah, almost dead....like yesterday's system that wouldn't phase. It's the 84 hour NAM though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And with the NAM usually being phase happy, it makes me feel a tad bit better. Yeah a late phase or no phase would be good for us, I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The longer this thing stays positive tilt the more it will dig. the farther south you live the more you want it to dig. Then it needs to make the turn at the correct time while still deepening. A lot of ifs for a system that is still way out in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z EC OP gives me 5" on Saturday but it's all still very shaky. On the other hand upstate VA should get some serious amounts. Damn you Norfolk why you gotta be so east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can we keep the mby questions/one liners/complaints/etc. contained to the banter thread please. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS looks like it might dig some more also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 def an improvement over 6z @84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM looks good at the end of it's run, heading in a good direction! Mackerel in your years of watching storms do you think this area has a chance for a major ice storm in the upstate? With a slow trend and a stinger CAD? I've seen these storms a few times, mtns look like a lock for big snow, just have to watch the wedge as we get closer! Keep an eye on modeled position and strength on each run and look for the damming signature to show on the model runs also! It's really just a watch and wait! Things are trending good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 not enough, temps still too warm for nc outside of mtns. icy on nc/va border @93. snow is so freakin close you can smell it. dc crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If anything 12z went negative a little more west than the 06z run, not good for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If anything 12z went negative a little more west than the 06z run, not good for the SE. Yep. Turned north pretty quickly due to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If anything 12z went negative a little more west than the 06z run, not good for the SE. nope, unless we see some big changes tonight into tomorrow as the sw comes ashore, i dont think this is a se storm. MA is going to cash in with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.