rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right now it looks like the cmc and ukie are in the 12z euro camp as far as track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here is a better frame of the 00z UKMET at hr 96: And there is the difference between the GFS. Most global models do not take the primary up into Kentucky. Instead, like the Ukmet it transfers its energy sooner. Here you see the transfer occurs from southeastern TN to Charleston. That would have a profound effect on surface temps etc for more people on the southeast forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought the 0z gfs was going to transfer south around hr 87 or 90 but didn't. If it did it would of matched up well with the track of the 0z ukie and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right now it looks like the cmc and ukie are in the 12z euro camp as far as track. The CMC is really far north then transfers near the central SC coast. The UK really has more of a Miller A look. I have no idea what temps look like on the UK. edit: After taking another look at that UK map it probably does go up to SE Tennessee and then transfers to Charleston. I think I really wanted it to not transfer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right now it looks like the cmc and ukie are in the 12z euro camp as far as track. You can add the 0Z Ggem and Canadian as well. So you have the CMC, UKIE, GGEM and CANADIAN vs the GFS in reference to transferring its energy further south and sooner rather than shooting the primary way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right now it looks like the cmc and ukie are in the 12z euro camp as far as track. 0z Cmc looks more like the 0z GFS than the ukie at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You can add the 0Z Ggem and Canadian as well. So you have the CMC, UKIE, GGEM and CANADIAN vs the GFS in reference to transferring its energy further south and sooner rather than shooting the primary way north. The ggem, canadian and cmc are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Cmc looks more like the 0z GFS than the ukie at 500mb I agree w/ that...It just transfers to the south which I thought the 0z gfs was going to do around hr 87. If you look at the 5h map you can see it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's all about where the energy transfers underneath the cad boundary or right through it. Obviously if you plow through it , it will scour out. On the other hand energy transfers underneath, it just helps it sustain itself imo. Then when coastal takes over your on the backside with north wind. As a native to the CLT area I have never seen well established CAD where the high remains in a somewhat favorable position erode as quickly as a model projects. I rule of thumb I have come up with is to add 12 to 24 hours. With that being said Ive heard 1996 being thrown around and while the synoptic setup is similar, as I recall that high was stronger and its source air mass was more cold and dry. Dew points were in the single digits when precip began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ggem, canadian and cmc are all the same. That's what I thought? Imma getting confused trying to get a sleet pellet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And there is the difference between the GFS. Most global models do not take the primary up into Kentucky. Instead, like the Ukmet it transfers its energy sooner. Here you see the transfer occurs from southeastern TN to Charleston. That would have a profound effect on surface temps etc for more people on the southeast forum. Bingo! This is the last piece of the puzzle. The primary staying in tact and rolling up through coal field country will stop our ne wind cold source tap. That's why gfs sends a furnace through NC even though LP is formed from energy transfer off SC coast. It's an outier with this idea at the moment verse rest of guidance. Everything else imo has enough consensus to where we know LP will end up in central TN then transfer energy to the coast near sav charleston. Big Question is will it let it all go or do like the gfs and kinda of double barrel up till WV and then let the primary go and send energy out to the coastal around dellmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ggem meteogram drops 1in of zr on raleigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As a native to the CLT area I have never seen well established CAD where the high remains in a somewhat favorable position erode as quickly as a model projects. I rule of thumb I have come up with is to add 12 to 24 hours. With that being said Ive heard 1996 being thrown around and while the synoptic setup is similar, as I recall that high was stronger and its source air mass was more cold and dry. Dew points were in the single digits when precip began. You are correct sir. The air mass leading up to that storm was incredibly cold. Granted I was only 9 years old at the time but I remember going outside and it was frigid. I lived in CT at the time but remember watching the folks on the weather channel pump the storm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS always seems to have a penchant to show very disappointing runs at this point, dry and warm solutions, only to retreat back to the fun and games the euro may be showing. If this were a miller a, it would be right around now the gfs would through a cutter at us. This is awful meteorology, the GFS could very well be right with its less than impressive surface depiction. I think its telling though that other models are coming in colder. When does that newfangled euro parallel come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ggem meteogram drops 1in of zr on raleigh.... Don't it usually run on the cold side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ggem meteogram drops 1in of zr on raleigh.... Does it show any ZR for the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 By the way, is the 12z Euro Para out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In my opinion anyone in central NC should not expect this to be a all snow type of storm. The best scenario, or worst, (depending on your personal preference) would be a front end snow, then mix w/ ip and zr, then back to snow at the end. But this could very well be a snow, rn, snow or rn to back end snow. I just down see this being a all snow event for us. Fully agree. The wrong wave is amplifying for us. What we really needed was for this weak system coming in on Wed to amplify down into the deep south instead of the Friday wave - wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS ensembles are southeast and colder than the op. My area is in the 14-16" range. Northern NC is 2-4 and I'm sure a whole slew of precip types but still better than all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't it usually run on the cold side? THe pressures on the gem models are usually too high. Haven't ever really noticed a sfc cold bias on the ggem. If anything it's normally warmer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 THe pressures on the gem models are usually too high. Haven't ever really noticed a sfc cold bias on the ggem. If anything it's normally warmer aloft. Agreed brother it has a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is anyone planning to describe the Euro run as it comes in (assuming it's time for it now)? Curious to see if it stands its ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Para GFS is a bit better than the GFS op, FWIW. Now it's Euro time. 00z GGEM ENS mean snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Para GFS is a bit better than the GFS op, FWIW. Now it's Euro time. Well that's better than being worse. We looking for anything to hang our hat on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 60 on the Euro, the configuration over the Northeast looks almost identical. The wave in the southern plains is slightly more positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea Euro looks pretty close to its 12z run that Cutoff low looks a little stronger maybe. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 @78 the Euro is warmer than it's 12z run. High isn't coming down as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At 60 on the Euro, the configuration over the Northeast looks almost identical. The wave in the southern plains is slightly more positive tilt Wr want pos tilt long as we can get it correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thru 81 as precip moves in, it's slightly warmer in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Our high has made it down by @84. Winter precip north of 40 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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