BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Obviously there must not be much of a HP to the north for it to drive right thru it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We either have eroding cad which the gfs is picking up on or the euro knows its business. Ok, I just made that up. I have no idea really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not sure why anyone at least in the northern half of North Carolina is discounting this. The GFS has a known bias to erode cad way too quickly this has been on display in previous storms. To top that there were several models that had good tracks for wintry weather at 12z for you guys. Everyone needs to calm down. And still four days to go. The Euro and other models have been just as consistent as the GFS with their further south solutions. And like you and others said, the GFS is plowing it through the wedge. The Euro has just as much chance as being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 00z Canadian has a major ice storm for a lot of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Isn't the CMC known for overdoing the ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I could live with a repeat of '96. 1-3" of snow in the upstate, then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain on top of that. Would make driving absolutely impossible. Got 6 inches in Dacusville from that one, beautiful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 00z Canadian has a major ice storm for NC. How does the low placement compare to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Isn't the CMC known for overdoing the ice? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How does the low placement compare to 12z? Looks like it transfers a little faster off the SC coast, though it might just be faster. Hard to say much with the awful Meteociel maps, though. The AmericanWx maps will be out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO/NAM likely to lead the way on the thermal profile for those of you immediate east of the mountains. Discount GFS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 00z Canadian has a major ice storm for a lot of NC. Map please! need to see something good to get my spirits up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe the cmc is a 2 inch front thump with about 4 inches of sleet followed by 1 inch wraparound snow on top. Am I close james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Obviously there must not be much of a HP to the north for it to drive right thru it? Frost, 90 hrs the GFS shows a 1024 mb high pressure parked up in lake placid ny area. That is a prime ideal spot to drain low level cold air down the apps and into the mountains of NC at the minimum. Now granted its not the 1033-1036 high euro depicted at 12z but it is sufficient to help to where the low doesn't punch through. That is where there is differing amongst the models. I'm not sure if euro has a better sense of picking up low level cold air over the GFS maybe someone can enlighten me however I just saw James posted of a major ice storm so yea if the high stays entrenched up north then a wintry weather scenario will be more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Per JB Here is your storm You can hang this winter up outside of the mountains this year if this verifies and we will likely even set a new record minimum for snow in the NC Mountains this year also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like it transfers a little faster off the SC coast, though it might just be faster. Hard to say much with the awful Meteociel maps, though. The AmericanWx maps will be out later. looks similar to gfs low placement. interior sc up thru nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe the cmc is a 2 inch front thump with about 4 inches of sleet followed by 1 inch wraparound snow on top. Am I close james Hard to say until better maps are available. Feast your eyes on these maps if you dare:http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=3&mode=0&archive=0 Here is the 00z UKMET at hr 96: EDIT: Looking over the CMC on Tropical Tidbits, the 00z Canadian is a bit colder than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Frost, 90 hrs the GFS shows a 1024 mb high pressure parked up in lake placid ny area. That is a prime ideal spot to drain low level cold air down the apps and into the mountains of NC at the minimum. Now granted its not the 1033-1036 high euro depicted at 12z but it is sufficient to help to where the low doesn't punch through. That is where there is differing amongst the models. I'm not sure if euro has a better sense of picking up low level cold air over the GFS maybe someone can enlighten me however I just saw James posted of a major ice storm so yea if the high stays entrenched up north then a wintry weather scenario will be more likely Ok, thanks. Just wondering 1024 seems weak, like to see 1030-1035 HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ok, thanks. Just wondering 1024 seems weak, like to see 1030-1035 HP I could be wrong but I believe at 96 or 99 it strengthened to 1028 but like I said I could've misread that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Per JB Here is your storm You can hang this winter up outside of the mountains this year if this verifies and we will likely even set a new record minimum for snow in the NC Mountains this year also Just what he was saying after 12z Euro today. That it was wrong in his opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think what the euro would be wrong on out of everything would end up being that it modeled the high too strong and dense up north. I think all of the models have a good handle on the track once it transfers. It's the gosh darn primary that is screwing people further south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Map please! need to see something good to get my spirits up!!! And FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 MAJOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THE CANADIAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What do you think James irt the UK? Looks south, little slower and stronger to me maybe? It's so hard to tell with these maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just what he was saying after 12z Euro today. That it was wrong in his opinion....I've seen him be wrong more times than I can count, the fact that this gives his "backyard" the goods gives me enough reason to doubt him on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And FWIW Thanks! Just to bad it's the crazy uncle!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've seen him be wrong more times than I can count, the fact that this gives his "backyard" the goods gives me enough reason to doubt him on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I hope so, I've seen him wrong a lot too.... But when a model goes to what he says, It's a different ball game to my thinking. I hope he misses it bad!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GGEM is freakin COLD folks! Has cad down into South Carolina mountains. Has me like mid 20s if I just saw that right. Edit: North Carolina is very cold as well. Would be very bad if that amount of precip came through like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's all about where the energy transfers underneath the cad boundary or right through it. Obviously if you plow through it , it will scour out. On the other hand energy transfers underneath, it just helps it sustain itself imo. Then when coastal takes over your on the backside with north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here is a better frame of the 00z UKMET at hr 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In my opinion anyone in central NC should not expect this to be a all snow type of storm. The best scenario, or worst, (depending on your personal preference) would be a front end snow, then mix w/ ip and zr, then back to snow at the end. But this could very well be a snow, rn, snow or rn to back end snow. I just down see this being a all snow event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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